Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul have met 5 times since 2021; Daniil Medvedev leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at French Open - Paris in 2021 on clay. On hard courts Medvedev leads 3–0. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Medvedev has taken 9 sets to Paul's 4. Their most recent meeting: Daniil Medvedev won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Medvedev | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniil Medvedev | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 29/41 | 55% | 16/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 53% | 9/17 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 21/58 | 49% | 20/41 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 49% | 25/51 | 39% | 14/36 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 3/5 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 9/24 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 35/39 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 29/39 | 62% | 16/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Medvedev 2, Paul 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 532 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Mar 11, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 4th Round
May 14, 2024
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 4th Round
Mar 16, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Semifinals
Sep 29, 2023
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 1st Round
Jun 2, 2021
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Medvedev | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daniil Medvedev | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 5 or more | 77% | 10/13 | 80% | 12/15 |
| 10 or more | 54% | 7/13 | 33% | 5/15 |
| 15 or more | 15% | 2/13 | 13% | 2/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–6 | 10–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.26 | 1.54 |
| ROI % | -39.7% | +12.2% |
| Units P/L | -4.76u | +1.71u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| Distance | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Medvedev's 30%).
| Opponent | Medvedev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Zverev | L 62 36 67 | W 46 76 64 |
| Learner Tien | L 46 06 36 | L 36 26 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 36 67 | W 76 63 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | L 67 16 | L 57 67 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | L 06 64 57 | L 76 46 36 |
| Ugo Humbert | L 67 63 36 | W 63 63 |
| Daniel Altmaier | L 46 76 46 | W 62 75 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 63 76 | W 63 76 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 64 | W 67 76 76 |
| Lorenzo Sonego | W 36 76 64 | W 63 62 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Martin Damm
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Brandon Nakashima
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Marco Trungelliti
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Botic van de Zandschulp
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Jan-Lennard Struff
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Daniel Merida
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Marin Cilic
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Daniel Altmaier
Terra Wortmann Open - Halle · Quarterfinals
Jun 19
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Hubert Hurkacz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Learner Tien
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Kamil Majchrzak
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Hubert Hurkacz
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Soonwoo Kwon
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–66 matches
| Metric | Medvedev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 70% | 69% |
| Sets won | 65% | 64% |
| Games won | 55% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Medvedev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Medvedev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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