Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul have met 5 times since 2021; Daniil Medvedev leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at French Open - Paris in 2021 on clay. On hard courts Medvedev leads 3–0. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Medvedev has taken 9 sets to Paul's 4. Their most recent meeting: Daniil Medvedev won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Medvedev | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniil Medvedev | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 28/41 | 57% | 17/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 7/15 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 48% | 21/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 51% | 25/49 | 38% | 15/39 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 2/4 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 39% | 9/23 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 34/36 | 79% | 22/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 28/36 | 61% | 17/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Medvedev 2, Paul 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 1,618 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Tommy Paul.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Mar 11, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 4th Round
May 14, 2024
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 4th Round
Mar 16, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Semifinals
Sep 29, 2023
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 1st Round
Jun 2, 2021
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Medvedev | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daniil Medvedev | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 5 or more | 88% | 15/17 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 10 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 15 or more | 24% | 4/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.32 | 1.81 |
| ROI % | -15.1% | +1.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.42u | +0.17u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 9 | 2 |
| Distance | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Medvedev and Paul posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Medvedev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 76 63 | L 76 46 36 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 64 62 | L 16 26 |
| Chak Pong Marco Lam | W 63 67 63 | W 67 61 63 63 |
| Valentin Royer | W 76 63 | W 64 76 |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 67 46 67 | W 75 46 76 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | W 63 76 | L 46 36 46 |
| Flavio Cobolli | L 36 75 46 | L 62 36 46 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 62 36 67 | W 46 76 64 |
| Learner Tien | L 46 06 36 | L 36 26 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 36 67 | W 76 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jan-Lennard Struff
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Francisco Cerundolo
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Jan-Lennard Struff
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Pablo Carreno Busta
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Roman Safiullin
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Carlos Alcaraz
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Alexander Bublik
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Dino Prizmic
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Chak Pong Marco Lam
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Flavio Cobolli
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–68 matches
| Metric | Medvedev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 72% | 69% |
| Sets won | 66% | 64% |
| Games won | 56% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Medvedev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Medvedev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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