Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil MedvedevPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev have met 9 times since 2021; Carlos Alcaraz leads 6–3. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon - London in 2021 on grass. On hard courts Alcaraz leads 4–2. On grass courts Alcaraz leads 2–1. 2 of their meetings have been finals, with Alcaraz leading those 2–0. Across all meetings Alcaraz has taken 15 sets to Medvedev's 9. Their most recent meeting: Daniil Medvedev won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Alcaraz | Medvedev | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Carlos Alcaraz | Daniil Medvedev | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 80% | 20/25 | 71% | 29/41 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 2/6 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 7/31 | 36% | 21/58 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 20/29 | 49% | 25/51 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 0% | 0/2 | 60% | 3/5 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 40% | 4/10 | 38% | 9/24 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 95% | 21/22 | 90% | 35/39 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 91% | 20/22 | 74% | 29/39 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alcaraz 4, Medvedev 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
Both Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev are 👑 The Complete Package types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 144 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
9 career meetings, newest first
Mar 14, 2026
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Semifinals
Oct 1, 2024
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · Semifinals
Jul 12, 2024
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · Semifinals
Mar 17, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Final
Nov 17, 2023
Nitto ATP Finals - Turin
H Hard · Round Robin
Sep 8, 2023
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Semifinals
Jul 14, 2023
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · Semifinals
Mar 19, 2023
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Final
Jul 1, 2021
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | - | 1.26 |
| ROI % | - | -39.7% |
| Units P/L | - | -4.76u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 3 |
| Matches | — | 4 |
| Distance | — | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km |
| Route | — | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Medvedev's 40%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nakashima | W 62 64 | L 76 67 16 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 61 46 63 | W 63 64 |
| Adam Walton | W 63 76 62 | L 26 61 16 61 46 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 67 36 | L 26 75 46 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 61 63 | W 64 60 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 62 61 | L 06 64 57 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 63 64 | W 63 64 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 67 63 62 | L 64 26 46 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | W 62 64 | W 64 62 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 64 76 67 67 75 | L 62 36 67 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Otto Virtanen
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona · 1st Round
Apr 14
Jannik Sinner
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · Final
Apr 12
Valentin Vacherot
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · Semifinals
Apr 11
Alexander Bublik
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · 3rd Round
Apr 9
Sebastian Baez
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · 2nd Round
Apr 7
Sebastian Korda
Miami Open - Miami · 3rd Round
Mar 22
Joao Fonseca
Miami Open - Miami · 2nd Round
Mar 20
Martin Damm
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Brandon Nakashima
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Marco Trungelliti
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Botic van de Zandschulp
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Jan-Lennard Struff
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Daniel Merida
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Marin Cilic
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Daniel Altmaier
Terra Wortmann Open - Halle · Quarterfinals
Jun 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–66 matches
| Metric | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 86% | 70% |
| Sets won | 80% | 65% |
| Games won | 59% | 55% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 2 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 2 | 2 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Finals | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 2 |
| Grass | 2 | 1 |
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