Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil MedvedevPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev have met 9 times since 2021; Carlos Alcaraz leads 6–3. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon - London in 2021 on grass. On hard courts Alcaraz leads 4–2. On grass courts Alcaraz leads 2–1. 2 of their meetings have been finals, with Alcaraz leading those 2–0. Across all meetings Alcaraz has taken 15 sets to Medvedev's 9. Their most recent meeting: Daniil Medvedev won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Alcaraz | Medvedev | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Carlos Alcaraz | Daniil Medvedev | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 18/25 | 68% | 28/41 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 2/5 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 9/30 | 36% | 20/56 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 64% | 18/28 | 51% | 25/49 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 0% | 0/2 | 50% | 2/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 54% | 7/13 | 39% | 9/23 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 95% | 21/22 | 94% | 34/36 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 82% | 18/22 | 78% | 28/36 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alcaraz 4, Medvedev 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
Both Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev are 👑 The Complete Package types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 782 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
9 career meetings, newest first
Mar 14, 2026
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Semifinals
Oct 1, 2024
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · Semifinals
Jul 12, 2024
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · Semifinals
Mar 17, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Final
Nov 17, 2023
Nitto ATP Finals - Turin
H Hard · Round Robin
Sep 8, 2023
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Semifinals
Jul 14, 2023
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · Semifinals
Mar 19, 2023
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Final
Jul 1, 2021
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Alcaraz | Medvedev | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Carlos Alcaraz | Daniil Medvedev | ||
| 1 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 100% | 17/17 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 9/12 | 100% | 17/17 |
| 5 or more | 25% | 3/12 | 88% | 15/17 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 82% | 14/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 24% | 4/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 12% | 2/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–1 | 11–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.15 | 1.32 |
| ROI % | +4.3% | -15.1% |
| Units P/L | +0.51u | -2.42u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 9 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Medvedev's 70%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Jaume Munar | W 57 63 61 | W 61 63 |
| Novak Djokovic | W 26 62 63 75 | L |
| Alex Michelsen | W 76 46 61 | W 62 64 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 76 64 | W 75 64 |
| Roman Safiullin | W 64 64 64 | W 75 64 |
| Valentin Royer | W 62 75 | W 76 63 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 67 63 62 | W 64 64 64 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 61 46 63 | W 63 64 |
| Adam Walton | W 63 76 62 | L 26 61 16 61 46 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 67 36 | L 26 75 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Jiri Lehecka
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Final
Oct 6
Jaume Munar
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Semifinals
Oct 5
Denis Shapovalov
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Matteo Arnaldi
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alex Michelsen
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Taylor Fritz
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Jan-Lennard Struff
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Francisco Cerundolo
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Jan-Lennard Struff
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Pablo Carreno Busta
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Roman Safiullin
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–68 matches
| Metric | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 86% | 72% |
| Sets won | 78% | 66% |
| Games won | 59% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 2 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 2 | 2 |
| ATP Finals | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 2 |
| Grass | 2 | 1 |
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