Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo MusettiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti have met 9 times since 2020; Carlos Alcaraz leads 8–1. Their first meeting came at Trieste Challenger in 2020 on clay. On clay courts Alcaraz leads 5–1. On hard courts Alcaraz leads 3–0. Alcaraz has won the last 7 meetings. 2 of their meetings have been finals, split 1–1. Across all meetings Alcaraz has taken 19 sets to Musetti's 5. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at Nitto ATP Finals - Turin (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Alcaraz | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Carlos Alcaraz | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 18/25 | 73% | 16/22 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 2/5 | 25% | 4/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 9/30 | 26% | 10/38 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 64% | 18/28 | 56% | 15/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 0% | 0/2 | 33% | 3/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 54% | 7/13 | 38% | 5/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 95% | 21/22 | 86% | 19/22 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 82% | 18/22 | 73% | 16/22 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alcaraz 4, Musetti 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Musetti
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 1,618 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Lorenzo Musetti.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
9 career meetings, newest first
Nov 13, 2025
Nitto ATP Finals - Turin
H Hard · Round Robin
Jun 5, 2025
Roland Garros
C Clay · Semifinals
May 16, 2025
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · Semifinals
Apr 13, 2025
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · Final
Mar 26, 2024
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 4th Round
Oct 1, 2023
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 4, 2023
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 4th Round
Jul 24, 2022
Hamburg European Open - Hamburg
C Clay · Final
Aug 29, 2020
Trieste Challenger
C Clay · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Alcaraz | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Carlos Alcaraz | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| 1 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 9/12 | 73% | 8/11 |
| 5 or more | 25% | 3/12 | 46% | 5/11 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–1 | 6–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.15 | 1.50 |
| ROI % | +4.3% | -28.7% |
| Units P/L | +0.51u | -3.16u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 7 | 1 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Musetti's 50%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Jiri Lehecka | W 76 64 | L 36 36 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | W 76 61 | W |
| Taylor Fritz | W 63 46 1311 | W 62 75 64 |
| Jaime Faria | W 46 60 63 62 | W 75 62 |
| Casper Ruud | W 61 76 | L 36 16 |
| Arthur Fils | W 62 61 | L 36 46 |
| Corentin Moutet | W 62 64 61 | W 63 64 |
| Valentin Vacherot | W 64 64 | L 67 57 |
| Alexander Bublik | W 63 60 | L 67 36 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 61 46 63 | W 67 62 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Jiri Lehecka
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Final
Oct 6
Jaume Munar
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Semifinals
Oct 5
Denis Shapovalov
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Matteo Arnaldi
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alex Michelsen
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Taylor Fritz
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Yi Zhou
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Dane Sweeny
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Arthur Fery
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–43 matches
| Metric | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 86% | 60% |
| Sets won | 78% | 59% |
| Games won | 59% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 3 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 5 | 1 |
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