Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo MusettiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti have met 9 times since 2020; Carlos Alcaraz leads 8–1. Their first meeting came at Trieste Challenger in 2020 on clay. On clay courts Alcaraz leads 5–1. On hard courts Alcaraz leads 3–0. Alcaraz has won the last 7 meetings. 2 of their meetings have been finals, split 1–1. Across all meetings Alcaraz has taken 19 sets to Musetti's 5. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at Nitto ATP Finals - Turin (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Alcaraz | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Carlos Alcaraz | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 80% | 20/25 | 72% | 21/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 2/6 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 7/31 | 26% | 12/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 20/29 | 59% | 20/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 0% | 0/2 | 30% | 3/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 40% | 4/10 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 95% | 21/22 | 90% | 26/29 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 91% | 20/22 | 72% | 21/29 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alcaraz 4, Musetti 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Musetti
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 56% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 179 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Lorenzo Musetti.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
9 career meetings, newest first
Nov 13, 2025
Nitto ATP Finals - Turin
H Hard · Round Robin
Jun 5, 2025
Roland Garros
C Clay · Semifinals
May 16, 2025
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · Semifinals
Apr 13, 2025
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · Final
Mar 26, 2024
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 4th Round
Oct 1, 2023
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 4, 2023
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 4th Round
Jul 24, 2022
Hamburg European Open - Hamburg
C Clay · Final
Aug 29, 2020
Trieste Challenger
C Clay · Semifinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 5–3 |
| Avg odds | - | 1.62 |
| ROI % | - | -18.1% |
| Units P/L | - | -1.45u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 6 |
| Distance | — | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | — | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Musetti's 40%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Casper Ruud | W 61 76 | L 36 16 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 62 61 | W 76 64 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 64 62 64 | L 36 36 |
| Arthur Fils | W 62 61 | L 36 46 |
| Corentin Moutet | W 62 64 61 | W 63 64 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 67 36 | L 16 46 26 |
| Valentin Vacherot | W 64 64 | L 67 57 |
| Alexander Bublik | W 63 60 | L 67 36 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 61 46 63 | W 67 62 64 |
| Sebastian Korda | L 36 75 46 | W 60 57 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Otto Virtanen
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona · 1st Round
Apr 14
Jannik Sinner
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · Final
Apr 12
Valentin Vacherot
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · Semifinals
Apr 11
Alexander Bublik
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · 3rd Round
Apr 9
Sebastian Baez
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · 2nd Round
Apr 7
Sebastian Korda
Miami Open - Miami · 3rd Round
Mar 22
Joao Fonseca
Miami Open - Miami · 2nd Round
Mar 20
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Nicolas Mejia
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Aleksandar Vukic
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–51 matches
| Metric | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 86% | 65% |
| Sets won | 80% | 61% |
| Games won | 59% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 5 | 1 |
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