Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo MusettiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Lorenzo Musetti have met 5 times since 2022; Lorenzo Musetti leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Australian Open - Melbourne in 2022 on hard. On clay courts Musetti leads 2–0. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Musetti has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 6 sets to Musetti's 9. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Musetti won at Nitto ATP Finals - Turin (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 72% | 21/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 26% | 12/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 59% | 20/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 30% | 3/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 90% | 26/29 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 72% | 21/29 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 0, Musetti 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Musetti
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 790 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Lorenzo Musetti.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Nov 11, 2025
Nitto ATP Finals - Turin
H Hard · Round Robin
Apr 30, 2025
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 4th Round
Apr 12, 2025
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · Semifinals
Jun 18, 2024
cinch Championships - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Jan 18, 2022
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 5–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 1.62 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | -18.1% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | -1.45u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 6 | 7 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | USA → CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Musetti has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Minaur's 50%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Frances Tiafoe | W 63 64 75 | L 67 57 |
| Arthur Fils | L 36 46 | L 36 46 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 16 | L 46 36 |
| Flavio Cobolli | L 57 67 36 | W 63 62 20 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 62 62 | W 63 63 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 60 63 | W 75 76 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 36 64 63 | W 76 64 |
| Casper Ruud | L 36 36 | L 36 16 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 64 46 64 | W 64 76 |
| Hamad Medjedovic | L 36 46 | W 64 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Nicolas Mejia
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Aleksandar Vukic
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 65% |
| Sets won | 62% | 62% |
| Games won | 54% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 2 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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