Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo MusettiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Lorenzo Musetti have met 5 times since 2022; Lorenzo Musetti leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Australian Open - Melbourne in 2022 on hard. On clay courts Musetti leads 2–0. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Musetti has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 6 sets to Musetti's 9. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Musetti won at Nitto ATP Finals - Turin (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 73% | 16/22 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 25% | 4/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 26% | 10/38 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 56% | 15/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 33% | 3/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 38% | 5/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 86% | 19/22 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 73% | 16/22 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 0, Musetti 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Musetti
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Nov 11, 2025
Nitto ATP Finals - Turin
H Hard · Round Robin
Apr 30, 2025
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 4th Round
Apr 12, 2025
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · Semifinals
Jun 18, 2024
cinch Championships - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Jan 18, 2022
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 73% | 8/11 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 46% | 5/11 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 6–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 1.50 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | -28.7% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | -3.16u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 7 | 1 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Musetti's 50%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic | L | L |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W | W 64 76 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 16 62 63 | W 67 75 64 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 26 76 119 | L 46 57 |
| Arthur Fery | W 75 76 | W 63 63 75 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 63 64 75 | L 67 57 |
| Arthur Fils | L 36 46 | L 36 46 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 16 | L 46 36 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | L 64 67 46 | W |
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 36 64 63 | W 76 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Yi Zhou
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Dane Sweeny
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Arthur Fery
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 43–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 60% |
| Sets won | 63% | 59% |
| Games won | 54% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 2 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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