Alex de Minaur vs Jannik SinnerPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Jannik Sinner have met 12 times since 2019; Jannik Sinner leads 12–0. Their first meeting came at Next Gen ATP Finals in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Sinner leads 11–0. Sinner has won the last 12 meetings. 3 of their meetings have been finals, with Sinner leading those 3–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 2 sets to Sinner's 27. Their most recent meeting: Jannik Sinner won at Nitto ATP Finals - Turin (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Sinner | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Jannik Sinner | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 88% | 46/52 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 100% | 1/1 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 13% | 7/53 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 87% | 46/53 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 80% | 12/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 100% | 50/50 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 92% | 46/50 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 7 of 9 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 0, Sinner 7).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Sinner
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 56% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 458 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Jannik Sinner.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
12 career meetings, newest first
Nov 15, 2025
Nitto ATP Finals - Turin
H Hard · Semifinals
Oct 25, 2025
Erste Bank Open - Vienna
H Hard · Semifinals
Sep 30, 2025
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · Semifinals
Jan 22, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Nov 10, 2024
Nitto ATP Finals - Turin
H Hard · Round Robin
Feb 18, 2024
ABN AMRO Open - Rotterdam
H Hard · Final
Nov 26, 2023
Davis Cup, World Group, F, AUS-ITA 0-2
H Hard · Rubber 2
Aug 13, 2023
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · Final
May 4, 2022
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jan 24, 2022
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 4th Round
Nov 12, 2020
Sofia Open - Sofia
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Nov 9, 2019
Next Gen ATP Finals
H Hard · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Sinner | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Jannik Sinner | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 29% | 2/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 7–0 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 1.08 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | +7.9% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | +0.55u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 6 | — |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | — |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sinner has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Minaur's 50%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Arthur Fils | L 36 46 | W 62 64 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 75 67 16 | W 62 75 |
| James Duckworth | W 62 76 | W 61 64 62 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 16 46 | W 67 76 63 64 |
| Flavio Cobolli | L 57 67 36 | W 62 76 |
| Nuno Borges | W 75 62 | W 76 76 64 |
| Denis Shapovalov | W 64 61 | W 63 62 |
| Benjamin Bonzi | W 62 64 | W 67 61 64 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 60 26 26 36 | L 67 62 36 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 60 63 | W 61 63 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Alexander Zverev
Wimbledon - London · Final
Jul 12
Novak Djokovic
Wimbledon - London · Semifinals
Jul 10
Jan-Lennard Struff
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Shintaro Mochizuki
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jenson Brooksby
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Nuno Borges
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Miomir Kecmanovic
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 72–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 94% |
| Sets won | 62% | 87% |
| Games won | 54% | 62% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 3 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 2 |
| Other | 0 | 3 |
| ATP World Tour Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 11 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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