Alex de Minaur vs Carlos AlcarazPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Carlos Alcaraz have met 6 times since 2022; Carlos Alcaraz leads 6–0. Their first meeting came at Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona in 2022 on clay. On hard courts Alcaraz leads 3–0. On clay courts Alcaraz leads 2–0. Alcaraz has won the last 6 meetings. 2 of their meetings have been finals, with Alcaraz leading those 2–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 2 sets to Alcaraz's 13. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Alcaraz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Carlos Alcaraz | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 72% | 18/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 40% | 2/5 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 30% | 9/30 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 64% | 18/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 0% | 0/2 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 54% | 7/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 95% | 21/22 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 82% | 18/22 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 0, Alcaraz 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 1,744 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Carlos Alcaraz.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Jan 27, 2026
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Nov 9, 2025
Nitto ATP Finals - Turin
H Hard · Round Robin
Apr 18, 2025
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Feb 9, 2025
ABN AMRO Open - Rotterdam
H Hard · Final
Jun 25, 2023
cinch Championships - London
G Grass · Final
Apr 24, 2022
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Alcaraz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Carlos Alcaraz | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 25% | 3/12 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 11–1 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 1.15 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | +4.3% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | +0.51u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 7 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | GBR → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Minaur's 40%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic | L | W 26 62 63 75 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 16 62 63 | W 76 64 |
| Denis Shapovalov | W 64 61 | W |
| Matteo Arnaldi | L 64 67 46 | W 76 61 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 26 76 119 | W 64 76 67 67 75 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 63 | W 63 46 1311 |
| Tommy Paul | L 62 36 36 | W 64 63 64 |
| Arthur Fils | L 36 46 | W 62 61 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 75 67 16 | W 63 64 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 57 26 | L 67 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Jiri Lehecka
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Final
Oct 6
Jaume Munar
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Semifinals
Oct 5
Denis Shapovalov
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Matteo Arnaldi
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alex Michelsen
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Taylor Fritz
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 86% |
| Sets won | 63% | 78% |
| Games won | 54% | 59% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 2 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 4 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 2 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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