Alex de Minaur vs Carlos AlcarazPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Carlos Alcaraz have met 6 times since 2022; Carlos Alcaraz leads 6–0. Their first meeting came at Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona in 2022 on clay. On hard courts Alcaraz leads 3–0. On clay courts Alcaraz leads 2–0. Alcaraz has won the last 6 meetings. 2 of their meetings have been finals, with Alcaraz leading those 2–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 2 sets to Alcaraz's 13. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Alcaraz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Carlos Alcaraz | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 80% | 20/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 33% | 2/6 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 23% | 7/31 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 69% | 20/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 0% | 0/2 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 40% | 4/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 95% | 21/22 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 91% | 20/22 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 0, Alcaraz 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 56% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 458 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Carlos Alcaraz.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Jan 27, 2026
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Nov 9, 2025
Nitto ATP Finals - Turin
H Hard · Round Robin
Apr 18, 2025
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Feb 9, 2025
ABN AMRO Open - Rotterdam
H Hard · Final
Jun 25, 2023
cinch Championships - London
G Grass · Final
Apr 24, 2022
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · Semifinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | - |
| ROI % | -16.4% | - |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 6 | — |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | — |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Minaur's 30%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Arthur Fils | L 36 46 | W 62 61 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 75 67 16 | W 63 64 |
| Brandon Nakashima | L 67 46 | W 62 64 |
| Tommy Paul | L 62 36 36 | W 76 64 75 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 36 64 63 | W 62 61 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 57 26 | L 67 36 |
| Valentin Vacherot | L 46 63 36 | W 64 64 |
| Alexander Bublik | W 64 61 61 | W 63 60 |
| Sebastian Korda | W 46 64 64 | L 36 75 46 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 46 46 | L 36 67 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Otto Virtanen
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona · 1st Round
Apr 14
Jannik Sinner
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · Final
Apr 12
Valentin Vacherot
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · Semifinals
Apr 11
Alexander Bublik
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · 3rd Round
Apr 9
Sebastian Baez
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · 2nd Round
Apr 7
Sebastian Korda
Miami Open - Miami · 3rd Round
Mar 22
Joao Fonseca
Miami Open - Miami · 2nd Round
Mar 20
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 86% |
| Sets won | 62% | 80% |
| Games won | 54% | 59% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 2 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 2 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 2 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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