Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul have met 7 times since 2022; Carlos Alcaraz leads 5–2. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at Australian Open (2026).
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Paul
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 🎯 Baseliner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 446 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
7 career meetings, newest first
Jan 25, 2026
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Jun 3, 2025
Roland Garros
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Jul 10, 2024
Wimbledon
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Aug 17, 2023
ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 16
Aug 11, 2023
ATP Masters 1000 Canada
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 28, 2023
ATP Masters 1000 Miami
H Hard · Round of 16
Aug 10, 2022
ATP Masters 1000 Canada
H Hard · Round of 32
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Alcaraz | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Carlos Alcaraz | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 67% | 4/6 | 94% | 16/17 |
| 3 or more | 67% | 4/6 | 53% | 9/17 |
| 5 or more | 33% | 2/6 | 35% | 6/17 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 24% | 4/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 6% | 1/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/17 |
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–1 | 13–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| ROI % | -13.0% | +9.3% |
| Units P/L | -0.78u | +1.59u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Paul's 50%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Casper Ruud | W 61 76 | L 64 76 46 67 57 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 75 62 61 | W 26 63 63 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 61 46 63 | W 67 76 76 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 62 64 60 | L 63 36 26 |
| Alexander Bublik | W 63 60 | L 67 76 36 76 16 |
| Sebastian Korda | L 36 75 46 | L 46 36 |
| Joao Fonseca | W 64 64 | L 26 36 |
| Zizou Bergs | W 64 63 | W 61 62 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 67 75 63 | W 64 63 |
| Adam Walton | W 63 76 62 | W 76 63 |
Last five matches per player
Otto Virtanen
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 32
Apr 14
Jannik Sinner
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Final
Apr 11
Valentin Vacherot
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Semifinals
Apr 11
Alexander Bublik
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 16
Apr 8
Sebastian Baez
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 32
Apr 7
Daniil Medvedev
BNP Paribas Open · Semifinals
Mar 14
Sebastian Korda
Miami Open presented by Itau · Round of 32
Mar 12
Zachary Svajda
HSBC Championships · Round of 32
Jun 15
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
HSBC Championships · Quarterfinals
Jun 15
Botic van de Zandschulp
HSBC Championships · Round of 16
Jun 12
Casper Ruud
Roland Garros · Round of 32
May 29
Lorenzo Sonego
Roland Garros · Round of 64
May 27
Rinky Hijikata
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 25
Alex de Minaur
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Semifinals
May 22
Ignacio Buse
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Final
May 21
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 46–58 matches
| Metric | Alcaraz | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 90% | 70% |
| Sets won | 81% | 65% |
| Games won | 60% | 55% |
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alcaraz | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 3 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 2 |
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alcaraz | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
