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Head-to-Head

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

Carlos Alcaraz

🇪🇸Carlos Alcaraz

#3 · 23 yrs · R

20w
6–2

8 meetings · sets 17–6

Tommy Paul

🇺🇸Tommy Paul

#21 · 29 yrs · R

Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul have met 8 times since 2022; Carlos Alcaraz leads 6–2. Their first meeting came at National Bank Open - Montreal in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Alcaraz leads 3–2. On clay courts Alcaraz leads 2–0. Alcaraz has won the last 5 meetings. Across all meetings Alcaraz has taken 17 sets to Paul's 6. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2026).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

IndicatorAlcarazPaul
Wins in straight sets80%55%
Wins a set when losing33%58%
Goes to a deciding set23%49%
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite69%39%
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog0%100%
Tiebreak sets won40%62%
Wins after taking set 195%81%
Wins 2-0 after taking set 191%62%

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alcaraz 2, Paul 0).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Alcaraz

👑 The Complete Package

Elite serve & returnHigh BP conversionAll-surface dominanceClutch performer
vs

Paul

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Matchup analysis

👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 532 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.

Previous meetings

8 career meetings, newest first

Jan 25, 2026

Australian Open - Melbourne

H Hard · 4th Round

766
64
75
Alcaraz

Jun 3, 2025

French Open - Paris

C Clay · Quarterfinals

60
61
64
Alcaraz

Aug 1, 2024

Olympics - Paris

C Clay · Quarterfinals

63
767
Alcaraz

Jul 9, 2024

Wimbledon - London

G Grass · Quarterfinals

57
64
62
62
Alcaraz

Aug 17, 2023

Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati

H Hard · 3rd Round

766
607
63
Alcaraz

Aug 12, 2023

National Bank Open - Toronto

H Hard · Quarterfinals

36
64
36
Paul

Mar 28, 2023

Miami Open - Miami

H Hard · 4th Round

64
64
Alcaraz

Aug 10, 2022

National Bank Open - Montreal

H Hard · 2nd Round

764
677
36
Paul

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

MetricAlcarazPaul
W-L-10–4
Avg odds-1.54
ROI %-+12.2%
Units P/L-+1.71u

Travel

Last 30 days

MetricAlcarazPaul
Countries—2
Events—2
Matches—5
Distance—712 mi · 1,146 km
Route—CAN → USA

Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Paul's 50%).

OpponentAlcarazPaul
Alexander Zverev
W
64
76
67
67
75
W
46
76
64
Valentin Royer
W
62
75
W
64
76
Francisco Cerundolo
W
62
61
L
76
46
36
Casper Ruud
W
61
76
L
64
76
46
67
57
Alex de Minaur
W
75
62
61
W
26
63
63
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
W
61
46
63
W
67
76
76
Arthur Fils
W
62
61
L
76
67
67
Sebastian Korda
L
36
75
46
L
46
36
Joao Fonseca
W
64
64
L
26
36
Zizou Bergs
W
64
63
W
61
62

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Alcaraz
WLWWWWLW
W

Otto Virtanen

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona · 1st Round

64
62

Apr 14

L

Jannik Sinner

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · Final

657
36

Apr 12

W

Valentin Vacherot

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · Semifinals

64
64

Apr 11

W

Alexander Bublik

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · Quarterfinals

63
60

Apr 10

W

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · 3rd Round

61
46
63

Apr 9

W

Sebastian Baez

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · 2nd Round

61
63

Apr 7

L

Sebastian Korda

Miami Open - Miami · 3rd Round

36
75
46

Mar 22

W

Joao Fonseca

Miami Open - Miami · 2nd Round

64
64

Mar 20

Paul
WWWLWLLW
W

Alexander Zverev

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round

46
766
64

Aug 19

W

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round

36
63
64

Aug 18

W

Hubert Hurkacz

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

64
637
63

Aug 16

L

Learner Tien

National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round

36
26

Aug 8

W

Valentin Royer

National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round

64
765

Aug 6

L

Kamil Majchrzak

Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round

57
647

Jul 28

L

Hubert Hurkacz

Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round

64
657
57
26

Jul 3

W

Soonwoo Kwon

Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round

63
764
62

Jul 1

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ AlcarazAlcaraz ahead↓ Paul

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–50 matches

MetricAlcarazPaul
Matches won86%70%
Sets won80%65%
Games won59%54%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

StageAlcarazPaul
Grand Slam30
Other10
ATP World Tour Masters 100022

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

SurfaceAlcarazPaul
Hard32
Clay20
Grass10

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul FAQ

Carlos Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 6–2 over 8 meetings.