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Head-to-Head

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

Carlos Alcaraz

🇪🇸Carlos Alcaraz

#3 · 23 yrs · R

7Title
7–2

9 meetings · sets 20–6

Tommy Paul

🇺🇸Tommy Paul

#18 · 29 yrs · R

Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul have met 9 times since 2022; Carlos Alcaraz leads 7–2. Their first meeting came at National Bank Open - Montreal in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Alcaraz leads 4–2. On clay courts Alcaraz leads 2–0. Alcaraz has won the last 6 meetings. Across all meetings Alcaraz has taken 20 sets to Paul's 6. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at U.S. Open - New York (2026).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

IndicatorAlcarazPaul
Wins in straight sets72%57%
Wins a set when losing40%57%
Goes to a deciding set30%48%
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite64%38%
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog0%100%
Tiebreak sets won54%62%
Wins after taking set 195%79%
Wins 2-0 after taking set 182%61%

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alcaraz 2, Paul 0).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Alcaraz

👑 The Complete Package

Elite serve & returnHigh BP conversionAll-surface dominanceClutch performer
vs

Paul

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Matchup analysis

The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 1,618 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Tommy Paul.

Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.

Previous meetings

9 career meetings, newest first

Sep 6, 2026

U.S. Open - New York

H Hard · 4th Round

64
63
64
Alcaraz

Jan 25, 2026

Australian Open - Melbourne

H Hard · 4th Round

766
64
75
Alcaraz

Jun 3, 2025

French Open - Paris

C Clay · Quarterfinals

60
61
64
Alcaraz

Aug 1, 2024

Olympics - Paris

C Clay · Quarterfinals

63
767
Alcaraz

Jul 9, 2024

Wimbledon - London

G Grass · Quarterfinals

57
64
62
62
Alcaraz

Aug 17, 2023

Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati

H Hard · 3rd Round

766
607
63
Alcaraz

Aug 12, 2023

National Bank Open - Toronto

H Hard · Quarterfinals

36
64
36
Paul

Mar 28, 2023

Miami Open - Miami

H Hard · 4th Round

64
64
Alcaraz

Aug 10, 2022

National Bank Open - Montreal

H Hard · 2nd Round

764
677
36
Paul

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

OutcomeAlcarazPaul
1 or more92%100%
3 or more75%92%
5 or more25%75%
10 or more0%17%
15 or more0%0%
20 or more0%0%

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

MetricAlcarazPaul
W-L11–18–5
Avg odds1.151.81
ROI %+4.3%+1.3%
Units P/L+0.51u+0.17u

Travel

Last 30 days

MetricAlcarazPaul
Countries32
Events32
Matches72
Distance7,032 mi · 11,317 km1,092 mi · 1,758 km
RouteGBR → JPN → CHNJPN → CHN

Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Paul's 60%).

OpponentAlcarazPaul
Taylor Fritz
W
63
46
1311
W
64
63
Alexander Bublik
W
63
60
W
64
36
67
61
63
Alexander Zverev
W
64
76
67
67
75
W
46
76
64
Valentin Royer
W
62
75
W
64
76
Casper Ruud
W
61
76
L
64
76
46
67
57
Alex de Minaur
W
75
62
61
W
26
63
63
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
W
61
46
63
W
67
76
76
Arthur Fils
W
62
61
L
76
67
67
Sebastian Korda
L
36
75
46
L
46
36
Joao Fonseca
W
64
64
L
26
36

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Alcaraz
WWWWWWWL
W

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round

63
63

Oct 10

W

Jiri Lehecka

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Final

764
64

Oct 6

W

Jaume Munar

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Semifinals

57
63
61

Oct 5

W

Denis Shapovalov

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals

Oct 4

W

Matteo Arnaldi

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round

766
61

Oct 3

W

Alex Michelsen

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round

761
46
61

Oct 1

W

Taylor Fritz

Laver Cup - London · Round Robin

63
46
1311

Sep 26

L

Ben Shelton

U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals

765
16
36
61
67

Sep 9

Paul
WLLWWWLW
W

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round

62
62

Oct 10

L

Alejandro Tabilo

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round

16
26

Sep 30

L

Carlos Alcaraz

U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round

46
36
46

Sep 6

W

Alexander Bublik

U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round

64
36
647
61
63

Sep 4

W

Dino Prizmic

U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round

62
63
57
64

Sep 3

W

Chak Pong Marco Lam

U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round

637
61
63
63

Aug 30

L

Flavio Cobolli

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals

62
36
46

Aug 20

W

Alexander Zverev

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round

46
766
64

Aug 19

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ AlcarazAlcaraz ahead↓ Paul

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–58 matches

MetricAlcarazPaul
Matches won86%69%
Sets won78%64%
Games won59%54%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

StageAlcarazPaul
Grand Slam40
Other10
ATP Masters 100022

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

SurfaceAlcarazPaul
Hard42
Clay20
Grass10

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul FAQ

Carlos Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 7–2 over 9 meetings.