Alexander Bublik vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alexander Bublik and Tommy Paul have met 7 times since 2019; Tommy Paul leads 5–2. Their first meeting came at Playford in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Paul leads 3–1. On grass courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Bublik has taken 8 sets to Paul's 13. Their most recent meeting: Alexander Bublik won at U.S. Open - New York (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Bublik | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alexander Bublik | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 20/29 | 55% | 16/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 6/19 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 15/48 | 49% | 20/41 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 43% | 18/42 | 39% | 14/36 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 3/6 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 52% | 14/27 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 23/27 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 20/27 | 62% | 16/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Bublik 1, Paul 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Bublik
🤖 Servebot
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 3,444 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Aug 30, 2025
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Mar 21, 2025
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jul 5, 2024
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 3rd Round
Mar 4, 2021
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament - Rotterdam
H Hard · 2nd Round
Sep 3, 2020
Hamburg
C Clay · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 2, 2019
London / Queen's Club
G Grass · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jan 2, 2019
Playford
H Hard · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Bublik | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alexander Bublik | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 5 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 80% | 12/15 |
| 10 or more | 62% | 8/13 | 33% | 5/15 |
| 15 or more | 31% | 4/13 | 13% | 2/15 |
| 20 or more | 23% | 3/13 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Bublik | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–5 | 10–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.61 | 1.54 |
| ROI % | -6.8% | +12.2% |
| Units P/L | -0.88u | +1.71u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Bublik | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 5 |
| Distance | — | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | — | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Bublik and Paul posted a 70% win rate.
| Opponent | Bublik | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 67 76 75 | W 64 67 63 |
| Learner Tien | L 16 64 67 | L 36 26 |
| Valentin Royer | W 76 76 | W 64 76 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 64 | W 67 76 76 |
| Taylor Fritz | L 67 46 46 | W 64 63 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 46 76 76 46 63 | W 75 46 76 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 64 62 | L 76 46 36 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 63 63 | W 76 63 |
| Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | W 76 76 | L 67 63 67 |
| Rinky Hijikata | L 76 67 36 | W 46 63 75 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Quentin Halys
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · Final
Jul 25
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · Semifinals
Jul 24
Alex Molcan
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · Quarterfinals
Jul 23
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Quentin Halys
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 2nd Round
Jul 17
Taylor Fritz
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Frances Tiafoe
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Kyrian Jacquet
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Hubert Hurkacz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Learner Tien
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Kamil Majchrzak
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Hubert Hurkacz
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Soonwoo Kwon
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–59 matches
| Metric | Bublik | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 69% |
| Sets won | 57% | 64% |
| Games won | 51% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Bublik | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Bublik | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 1 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.