Alex de Minaur vs Alexander BublikPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Alexander Bublik have met 6 times since 2021; Alex de Minaur leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at Antalya in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 3–1. On clay courts they are level 1–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Minaur leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 11 sets to Bublik's 5. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Bublik | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Alexander Bublik | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 68% | 19/28 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 26% | 5/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 30% | 14/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 45% | 17/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 44% | 4/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 50% | 14/28 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 88% | 22/25 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 76% | 19/25 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 2, Bublik 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Bublik
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alexander Bublik.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Jan 25, 2026
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 4th Round
Oct 31, 2025
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 29, 2025
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 2nd Round
Mar 10, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Apr 21, 2021
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jan 4, 2021
Antalya
H Hard · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Bublik | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Alexander Bublik | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 58% | 7/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 42% | 5/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 8% | 1/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 7–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 1.75 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | -9.9% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | -1.19u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 4 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | GBR → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Bublik's 40%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nakashima | L 67 46 | W 67 63 76 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W | W 67 76 75 |
| Quentin Halys | W 36 76 75 | L 46 67 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 60 26 26 36 | L 46 67 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 16 | L 26 36 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 46 57 26 | W 63 63 |
| Tommy Paul | L 62 36 36 | L 46 63 76 16 36 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 62 62 | W 63 61 61 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 64 36 63 | L 26 57 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 63 | L 67 46 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Brandon Nakashima
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Tomas Machac
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Jakub Mensik
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Rafael Jodar
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Tommy Paul
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Adrian Mannarino
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
J.J. Wolf
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Quentin Halys
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · Final
Jul 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 59–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 61% |
| Sets won | 63% | 58% |
| Games won | 54% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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