Alex de Minaur vs Alexander BublikPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Alexander Bublik have met 6 times since 2021; Alex de Minaur leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at Antalya in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 3–1. On clay courts they are level 1–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Minaur leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 11 sets to Bublik's 5. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Bublik | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Alexander Bublik | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 69% | 20/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 32% | 6/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 31% | 15/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 43% | 18/42 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 50% | 3/6 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 52% | 14/27 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 85% | 23/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 74% | 20/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 2, Bublik 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Bublik
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 2,280 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alexander Bublik.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Jan 25, 2026
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 4th Round
Oct 31, 2025
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 29, 2025
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 2nd Round
Mar 10, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Apr 21, 2021
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jan 4, 2021
Antalya
H Hard · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Bublik | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Alexander Bublik | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 62% | 8/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 23% | 3/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 1.61 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | -6.8% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | -0.88u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 5 | — |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | — |
| Route | CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Bublik's 30%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Quentin Halys | W 16 63 76 | L 46 67 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 64 36 63 | L 26 57 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 63 | L 67 46 46 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 63 64 75 | W 46 76 76 46 63 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 62 62 | L 36 26 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 63 36 76 | W 57 64 62 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 36 64 63 | W 64 62 |
| Valentin Vacherot | L 46 63 36 | L 67 67 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | L 57 26 16 | L 36 06 |
| Matteo Berrettini | W 61 76 | L 46 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Quentin Halys
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · Final
Jul 25
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · Semifinals
Jul 24
Alex Molcan
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · Quarterfinals
Jul 23
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Quentin Halys
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 2nd Round
Jul 17
Taylor Fritz
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Frances Tiafoe
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Kyrian Jacquet
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 60% |
| Sets won | 62% | 57% |
| Games won | 54% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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