Tomas Machac vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Tomas Machac and Tommy Paul have met 4 times since 2024; Tomas Machac leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Machac leads 3–0. Across all meetings Machac has taken 7 sets to Paul's 5. Their most recent meeting: Tomas Machac won at Adelaide International - Adelaide (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Machac | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Tomas Machac | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 38% | 5/13 | 57% | 17/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 36% | 5/14 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 48% | 13/27 | 48% | 21/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 21% | 3/14 | 38% | 15/39 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 54% | 7/13 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 57% | 8/14 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 100% | 8/8 | 79% | 22/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 63% | 5/8 | 61% | 17/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Machac 0, Paul 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Machac
💥 Big Hitter
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Tomas Machac and Tommy Paul are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 4,120 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jan 16, 2026
Adelaide International - Adelaide
H Hard · Semifinals
May 12, 2025
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
Oct 9, 2024
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 4th Round
Sep 28, 2024
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Machac | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Tomas Machac | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 6/8 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 4/8 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 10 or more | 13% | 1/8 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Machac | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–6 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.95 | 1.81 |
| ROI % | -56.4% | +1.3% |
| Units P/L | -4.51u | +0.17u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Machac | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 2 |
| Distance | 663 mi · 1,067 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs Machac's 50%).
| Opponent | Machac | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Bublik | L 46 67 | W 64 36 67 61 63 |
| Flavio Cobolli | L 16 46 | L 62 36 46 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 46 26 26 | W 46 76 64 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 76 63 | L 76 46 36 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 64 67 62 | W 63 63 |
| Zizou Bergs | W 64 64 63 | W 61 62 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 64 16 63 | W 62 75 |
| Corentin Moutet | L 06 61 46 | W 46 63 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alexander Bublik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Zhizhen Zhang
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Alex Molcan
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Arthur Gea
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yannick Hanfmann
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Toby Samuel
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Mees Rottgering
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Pablo Carreno Busta
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Carlos Alcaraz
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Alexander Bublik
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Dino Prizmic
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Chak Pong Marco Lam
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Flavio Cobolli
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 33–58 matches
| Metric | Machac | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 48% | 69% |
| Sets won | 48% | 64% |
| Games won | 47% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Machac | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Machac | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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