Tomas Machac vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Tomas Machac and Tommy Paul have met 4 times since 2024; Tomas Machac leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Machac leads 3–0. Across all meetings Machac has taken 7 sets to Paul's 5. Their most recent meeting: Tomas Machac won at Adelaide International - Adelaide (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Machac | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Tomas Machac | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 6/12 | 55% | 16/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 5/12 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 11/24 | 49% | 20/41 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 29% | 4/14 | 39% | 14/36 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 6/10 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 55% | 6/11 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 100% | 8/8 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 75% | 6/8 | 62% | 16/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Machac 0, Paul 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Machac
💥 Big Hitter
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Tomas Machac and Tommy Paul are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 2,644 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jan 16, 2026
Adelaide International - Adelaide
H Hard · Semifinals
May 12, 2025
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
Oct 9, 2024
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 4th Round
Sep 28, 2024
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo
H Hard · 2nd Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Machac | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 0–2 | 10–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.68 | 1.54 |
| ROI % | -100.0% | +12.2% |
| Units P/L | -2.00u | +1.71u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Machac | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 5 |
| Distance | 313 mi · 503 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (86% vs Machac's 57%).
| Opponent | Machac | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Zverev | L 46 26 26 | W 46 76 64 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 76 63 | L 76 46 36 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 64 67 62 | W 63 63 |
| Zizou Bergs | W 64 64 63 | W 61 62 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 64 16 63 | W 62 75 |
| Corentin Moutet | L 06 61 46 | W 46 63 64 |
| Taylor Fritz | L 46 36 36 | W 64 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Mees Rottgering
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Pablo Carreno Busta
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Alexander Zverev
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Zizou Bergs
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 24
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome · 1st Round
May 7
Cameron Norrie
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid · 2nd Round
Apr 24
Francisco Comesana
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid · 1st Round
Apr 22
Andrey Rublev
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona · Quarterfinals
Apr 17
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Hubert Hurkacz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Learner Tien
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Kamil Majchrzak
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Hubert Hurkacz
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Soonwoo Kwon
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 31–51 matches
| Metric | Machac | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 52% | 69% |
| Sets won | 52% | 64% |
| Games won | 49% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Machac | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Machac | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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