Alex de Minaur vs Daniil MedvedevPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Daniil Medvedev have met 12 times since 2018; Daniil Medvedev leads 8–4. Their first meeting came at Sydney in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Medvedev leads 8–2. On clay courts Minaur leads 2–0. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Medvedev leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 12 sets to Medvedev's 19. Their most recent meeting: Daniil Medvedev won at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Medvedev | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Daniil Medvedev | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 71% | 29/41 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 36% | 21/58 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 49% | 25/51 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 60% | 3/5 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 38% | 9/24 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 90% | 35/39 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 74% | 29/39 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 7 of 10 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 2, Medvedev 5).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 56% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 458 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Daniil Medvedev.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
12 career meetings, newest first
Oct 10, 2025
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Apr 10, 2025
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 3rd Round
Nov 12, 2024
Nitto ATP Finals - Turin
H Hard · Round Robin
Jun 3, 2024
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 4th Round
Sep 30, 2023
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 2nd Round
Sep 4, 2023
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 4th Round
Aug 11, 2023
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Nov 2, 2022
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 4, 2022
ATP Cup - Sydney
H Hard · Round Robin
Nov 5, 2020
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 10, 2018
Winston-Salem
H Hard · Round of 32
Jan 13, 2018
Sydney
H Hard · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Medvedev | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Daniil Medvedev | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 54% | 7/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 15% | 2/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 1.26 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | -39.7% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | -4.76u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 6 | 4 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Medvedev's 40%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Damm | W 76 75 | L 57 36 |
| Brandon Nakashima | L 67 46 | L 76 67 16 |
| Quentin Halys | W 16 63 76 | W 67 63 64 62 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 75 67 16 | W 63 64 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 36 76 75 | L 36 67 |
| James Duckworth | W 62 76 | W 67 63 62 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 64 36 63 | L 36 46 |
| Flavio Cobolli | L 57 67 36 | L 36 75 46 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | L 36 62 67 | L 67 16 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 46 64 | W 63 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Martin Damm
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Brandon Nakashima
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Marco Trungelliti
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Botic van de Zandschulp
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Jan-Lennard Struff
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Daniel Merida
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Marin Cilic
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Daniel Altmaier
Terra Wortmann Open - Halle · Quarterfinals
Jun 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 66–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 70% |
| Sets won | 62% | 65% |
| Games won | 54% | 55% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 2 | 1 |
| ATP Cup | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 8 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.