Alex de Minaur vs Daniil MedvedevPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Daniil Medvedev have met 12 times since 2018; Daniil Medvedev leads 8–4. Their first meeting came at Sydney in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Medvedev leads 8–2. On clay courts Minaur leads 2–0. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Medvedev leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 12 sets to Medvedev's 19. Their most recent meeting: Daniil Medvedev won at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Medvedev | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Daniil Medvedev | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 68% | 28/41 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 36% | 20/56 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 51% | 25/49 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 50% | 2/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 39% | 9/23 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 94% | 34/36 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 78% | 28/36 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 7 of 10 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 2, Medvedev 5).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 1,744 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Daniil Medvedev.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
12 career meetings, newest first
Oct 10, 2025
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Apr 10, 2025
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 3rd Round
Nov 12, 2024
Nitto ATP Finals - Turin
H Hard · Round Robin
Jun 3, 2024
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 4th Round
Sep 30, 2023
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 2nd Round
Sep 4, 2023
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 4th Round
Aug 11, 2023
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Nov 2, 2022
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 4, 2022
ATP Cup - Sydney
H Hard · Round Robin
Nov 5, 2020
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 10, 2018
Winston-Salem
H Hard · Round of 32
Jan 13, 2018
Sydney
H Hard · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Medvedev | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Daniil Medvedev | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 17/17 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 100% | 17/17 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 88% | 15/17 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 82% | 14/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 24% | 4/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 12% | 2/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 11–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 1.32 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | -15.1% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | -2.42u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 9 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Medvedev's 40%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Rei Sakamoto | W 76 64 | W 67 63 61 |
| Novak Djokovic | L | L |
| Andrey Rublev | W 16 62 63 | W 75 64 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 36 64 63 | W 76 63 |
| Quentin Halys | W 36 76 75 | W 67 63 64 62 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 26 76 119 | L 62 36 67 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | W 63 63 | L 67 16 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 63 64 75 | L 67 46 67 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 46 57 26 | L 36 67 |
| Martin Damm | W 76 75 | L 57 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Jan-Lennard Struff
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Francisco Cerundolo
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Jan-Lennard Struff
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Pablo Carreno Busta
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Roman Safiullin
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 68–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 72% |
| Sets won | 63% | 66% |
| Games won | 54% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 3 | 2 |
| ATP Cup | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 8 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
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