Frances Tiafoe vs Lorenzo MusettiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Frances Tiafoe and Lorenzo Musetti have met 8 times since 2020; they are level 4–4. Their first meeting came at Forli Challenger in 2020 on clay. On clay courts Musetti leads 3–1. On hard courts Tiafoe leads 2–1. Across all meetings Tiafoe has taken 12 sets to Musetti's 11. Their most recent meeting: Frances Tiafoe won at Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tiafoe | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Frances Tiafoe | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 17/30 | 72% | 21/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 6/16 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 19/46 | 26% | 12/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 13/26 | 59% | 20/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 65% | 13/20 | 30% | 3/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 24/27 | 90% | 26/29 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 63% | 17/27 | 72% | 21/29 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tiafoe 2, Musetti 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tiafoe
💥 Big Hitter
Musetti
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🎯 Baseliner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 1,047 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
8 career meetings, newest first
Aug 22, 2026
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jun 3, 2025
French Open - Paris
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Aug 14, 2024
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 16, 2023
Boss Open - Stuttgart
G Grass · Quarterfinals
May 16, 2023
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
Mar 17, 2021
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · 2nd Round
Oct 7, 2020
Parma Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Sep 23, 2020
Forli Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tiafoe | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Frances Tiafoe | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 20/20 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 95% | 19/20 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 60% | 12/20 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 10% | 2/20 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tiafoe | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–5 | 5–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.92 | 1.62 |
| ROI % | +31.0% | -18.1% |
| Units P/L | +6.20u | -1.45u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tiafoe | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 6 | 7 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | USA → CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Tiafoe has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Musetti's 60%).
| Opponent | Tiafoe | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Arthur Fils | L 36 61 06 | L 36 46 |
| Jaime Faria | W 46 67 76 61 62 | W 75 62 |
| Lorenzo Sonego | W 63 64 | W 63 63 64 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 61 63 | W 64 62 |
| Aleksandar Vukic | W 62 62 | W 63 57 63 |
| Alexander Bublik | L 64 67 67 64 36 | L 67 36 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 64 64 | W 62 75 64 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | W 36 63 76 | L 46 26 |
| Flavio Cobolli | W 62 76 | W 63 62 20 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 46 67 | L 36 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 23
Brandon Nakashima
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Lorenzo Musetti
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Felix Auger Aliassime
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Learner Tien
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Lorenzo Sonego
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Marin Cilic
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Terence Atmane
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Nicolas Mejia
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Aleksandar Vukic
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–56 matches
| Metric | Tiafoe | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 66% | 65% |
| Sets won | 59% | 62% |
| Games won | 53% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tiafoe | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tiafoe | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 3 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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