Brandon Nakashima vs Frances TiafoePrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Brandon Nakashima and Frances Tiafoe have met 9 times since 2020; Frances Tiafoe leads 8–1. Their first meeting came at Dallas Challenger in 2020 on hard. On hard courts Tiafoe leads 7–1. Tiafoe has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Nakashima has taken 6 sets to Tiafoe's 16. Their most recent meeting: Frances Tiafoe won at Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakashima | Tiafoe | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Brandon Nakashima | Frances Tiafoe | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 25/34 | 57% | 17/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 7/21 | 38% | 6/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 29% | 16/55 | 41% | 19/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 54% | 20/37 | 50% | 13/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 69% | 11/16 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 15/30 | 58% | 11/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 63% | 17/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 9 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakashima 1, Tiafoe 4).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Tiafoe
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 3,444 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
9 career meetings, newest first
Aug 23, 2026
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · Semifinals
Feb 27, 2026
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · Semifinals
Apr 5, 2025
US Men's Clay Court Championship - Houston
C Clay · Semifinals
Sep 26, 2024
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo
H Hard · 1st Round
Jul 29, 2022
Truist Atlanta Open - Atlanta
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 25, 2022
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 13, 2022
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 16, 2021
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · 1st Round
Feb 6, 2020
Dallas Challenger
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakashima | Tiafoe | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Brandon Nakashima | Frances Tiafoe | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 100% | 20/20 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 95% | 19/20 |
| 5 or more | 91% | 19/21 | 60% | 12/20 |
| 10 or more | 43% | 9/21 | 10% | 2/20 |
| 15 or more | 14% | 3/21 | 0% | 0/20 |
| 20 or more | 10% | 2/21 | 0% | 0/20 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 16–5 | 15–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.87 | 1.92 |
| ROI % | +38.6% | +31.0% |
| Units P/L | +8.10u | +6.20u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 13 | 6 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Tiafoe has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Nakashima's 70%).
| Opponent | Nakashima | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Arthur Fils | L 26 36 | L 36 61 06 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 46 63 | W 64 64 |
| Nuno Borges | W 63 67 63 | W 64 64 |
| Daniil Medvedev | W 67 76 61 | W 63 62 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 62 75 | W 64 36 76 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 62 61 | W 61 63 |
| Marin Cilic | L 62 46 67 | W 57 62 62 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 76 64 | L 36 46 57 |
| Jakub Mensik | W 76 36 64 | W 76 46 76 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | L 75 16 67 67 | W 36 63 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Nuno Borges
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Daniil Medvedev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ben Shelton
National Bank Open - Montreal · Final
Aug 14
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · Semifinals
Aug 13
Luciano Darderi
National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals
Aug 11
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 23
Brandon Nakashima
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Lorenzo Musetti
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Felix Auger Aliassime
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Learner Tien
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Lorenzo Sonego
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Marin Cilic
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Terence Atmane
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 56–61 matches
| Metric | Nakashima | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 66% |
| Sets won | 59% | 59% |
| Games won | 53% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakashima | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakashima | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 7 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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