Brandon Nakashima vs Frances TiafoePrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Brandon Nakashima and Frances Tiafoe have met 9 times since 2020; Frances Tiafoe leads 8–1. Their first meeting came at Dallas Challenger in 2020 on hard. On hard courts Tiafoe leads 7–1. Tiafoe has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Nakashima has taken 6 sets to Tiafoe's 16. Their most recent meeting: Frances Tiafoe won at Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakashima | Tiafoe | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Brandon Nakashima | Frances Tiafoe | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 23/31 | 61% | 20/33 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 36% | 5/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 32% | 16/50 | 38% | 18/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 56% | 18/32 | 54% | 15/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 12/16 | 68% | 13/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 52% | 14/27 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 28/33 | 96% | 27/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 70% | 23/33 | 71% | 20/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 9 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakashima 1, Tiafoe 4).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Tiafoe
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
9 career meetings, newest first
Aug 23, 2026
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · Semifinals
Feb 27, 2026
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · Semifinals
Apr 5, 2025
US Men's Clay Court Championship - Houston
C Clay · Semifinals
Sep 26, 2024
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo
H Hard · 1st Round
Jul 29, 2022
Truist Atlanta Open - Atlanta
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 25, 2022
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 13, 2022
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 16, 2021
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · 1st Round
Feb 6, 2020
Dallas Challenger
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakashima | Tiafoe | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Brandon Nakashima | Frances Tiafoe | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 100% | 18/18 |
| 3 or more | 95% | 20/21 | 89% | 16/18 |
| 5 or more | 91% | 19/21 | 56% | 10/18 |
| 10 or more | 52% | 11/21 | 17% | 3/18 |
| 15 or more | 10% | 2/21 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/21 | 0% | 0/18 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–6 | 13–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.84 | 2.04 |
| ROI % | +27.8% | +23.4% |
| Units P/L | +5.84u | +4.21u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Nakashima and Tiafoe posted a 60% win rate.
| Opponent | Nakashima | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Bublik | L 76 36 67 | L 64 67 67 64 36 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 76 64 | L 67 64 67 |
| Arthur Fils | L 26 36 | L 36 57 |
| Jakub Mensik | W 61 36 107 | W 76 46 76 |
| Ben Shelton | L 36 67 | L 64 36 36 57 |
| Alex Michelsen | L 36 46 46 | W 57 36 75 63 76 |
| Daniil Medvedev | W 67 76 61 | W 76 64 76 |
| Valentin Vacherot | W 26 62 63 | W 64 62 64 |
| Martin Damm | W 76 62 | W 64 46 36 63 64 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 46 63 | W 64 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alexander Bublik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Matteo Berrettini
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Ugo Humbert
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jakub Mensik
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sebastian Baez
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Yannick Hanfmann
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Arthur Fils
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Kei Nishikori
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 11
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Daniil Medvedev
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Valentin Vacherot
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–63 matches
| Metric | Nakashima | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 60% | 71% |
| Sets won | 59% | 63% |
| Games won | 53% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakashima | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 2 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 3 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakashima | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 7 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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