Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Baez have met 4 times since 2021; Carlos Alcaraz leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Next Gen ATP Finals - Milan in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Alcaraz leads 3–0. Alcaraz has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Alcaraz has taken 10 sets to Baez's 0. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Alcaraz | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Carlos Alcaraz | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 80% | 20/25 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 2/6 | 19% | 5/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 7/31 | 22% | 13/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 20/29 | 63% | 17/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 0% | 0/2 | 52% | 15/29 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 40% | 4/10 | 64% | 7/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 95% | 21/22 | 85% | 29/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 91% | 20/22 | 76% | 26/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alcaraz 2, Baez 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
The 🎾 All-Court archetype wins about 56% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 124 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Sebastian Baez.
All-Court players often use tactical versatility and net approach ability to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Apr 7, 2026
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 2nd Round
Sep 25, 2025
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 30, 2022
US Open
H Hard · Round of 128
Nov 12, 2021
Next Gen ATP Finals - Milan
H Hard · Semifinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 14–6 |
| Avg odds | - | 1.90 |
| ROI % | - | +8.8% |
| Units P/L | - | +1.76u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 3 |
| Events | — | 4 |
| Matches | — | 9 |
| Distance | — | 3,066 mi · 4,934 km |
| Route | — | CAN → USA → MEX → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Baez's 30%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Grigor Dimitrov | W 62 63 | W 16 63 64 |
| Zizou Bergs | W 64 63 | L 63 36 26 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | W 76 63 62 | L 36 16 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 67 63 62 | W 76 26 64 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 76 64 | L 16 26 |
| Alexander Bublik | W 63 60 | L 16 26 |
| Adam Walton | W 63 76 62 | L 26 26 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 36 67 | L 46 06 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 63 64 | L 36 46 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 64 62 64 | W 64 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Otto Virtanen
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona · 1st Round
Apr 14
Jannik Sinner
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · Final
Apr 12
Valentin Vacherot
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · Semifinals
Apr 11
Alexander Bublik
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · 3rd Round
Apr 9
Sebastian Baez
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · 2nd Round
Apr 7
Sebastian Korda
Miami Open - Miami · 3rd Round
Mar 22
Joao Fonseca
Miami Open - Miami · 2nd Round
Mar 20
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Lloyd Harris
Cancun Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 23
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Cancun Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 21
Learner Tien
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Grigor Dimitrov
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Zizou Bergs
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–64 matches
| Metric | Alcaraz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 86% | 55% |
| Sets won | 80% | 53% |
| Games won | 59% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alcaraz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alcaraz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.