Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Baez have met 4 times since 2021; Carlos Alcaraz leads 4–0. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters (2026).
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Baez
🧱 The Wall
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 65% vs 🧱 The Wall across 426 matches in our dataset — a stylistic lean toward Carlos Alcaraz.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the the wall's elite returner.
4 career meetings, newest first
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Alcaraz | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Carlos Alcaraz | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 67% | 4/6 | 93% | 13/14 |
| 3 or more | 67% | 4/6 | 36% | 5/14 |
| 5 or more | 33% | 2/6 | 7% | 1/14 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/14 |
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–1 | 8–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.20 | 2.30 |
| ROI % | -13.0% | -30.0% |
| Units P/L | -0.78u | -4.50u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (89% vs Baez's 11%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Bublik | W 63 60 | L 16 26 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 36 67 | L 46 06 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 63 64 | L 36 46 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 64 62 64 | W 64 61 |
| Adam Walton | W 63 76 62 | L 26 26 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 62 64 60 | L 46 36 |
| Valentin Royer | W 62 75 | L 26 36 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | W 76 63 62 | L 75 36 57 |
| Reilly Opelka | W 64 75 64 | L 36 46 |
Last five matches per player
Otto Virtanen
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 32
Apr 14
Valentin Vacherot
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Semifinals
Apr 11
Jannik Sinner
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Final
Apr 11
Alexander Bublik
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 16
Apr 8
Sebastian Baez
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 32
Apr 7
Daniil Medvedev
BNP Paribas Open · Semifinals
Mar 14
Sebastian Korda
Miami Open presented by Itau · Round of 32
Mar 12
Alex Molcan
Unicredit Czech Open · Final
Jun 7
Maxim Mrva
Unicredit Czech Open · Quarterfinals
Jun 5
Tristan Boyer
Unicredit Czech Open · Round of 16
Jun 3
Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg
Unicredit Czech Open · Round of 32
Jun 2
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Alex Michelsen
Gonet Geneva Open · Round of 32
May 18
Pablo Carreno Busta
Copa Faulconbridge · Round of 16
May 14
Roberto Carballes Baena
Copa Faulconbridge · Round of 32
May 12
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–56 matches
| Metric | Alcaraz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 89% | 46% |
| Sets won | 80% | 45% |
| Games won | 60% | 49% |
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alcaraz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alcaraz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
