Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Baez have met 4 times since 2021; Carlos Alcaraz leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Next Gen ATP Finals - Milan in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Alcaraz leads 3–0. Alcaraz has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Alcaraz has taken 10 sets to Baez's 0. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Alcaraz | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Carlos Alcaraz | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 18/25 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 2/5 | 23% | 6/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 9/30 | 23% | 14/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 64% | 18/28 | 61% | 17/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 0% | 0/2 | 54% | 15/28 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 54% | 7/13 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 95% | 21/22 | 83% | 29/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 82% | 18/22 | 74% | 26/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alcaraz 2, Baez 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 55% vs 🎾 All-Court across 281 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Carlos Alcaraz.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the all-court's tactical versatility.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Apr 7, 2026
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 2nd Round
Sep 25, 2025
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 30, 2022
US Open
H Hard · Round of 128
Nov 12, 2021
Next Gen ATP Finals - Milan
H Hard · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Alcaraz | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Carlos Alcaraz | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 68% | 13/19 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 9/12 | 32% | 6/19 |
| 5 or more | 25% | 3/12 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–1 | 8–9 |
| Avg odds | 1.15 | 2.43 |
| ROI % | +4.3% | -17.4% |
| Units P/L | +0.51u | -2.95u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 4 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 1,611 mi · 2,592 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Baez's 50%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | W 63 63 | L |
| Valentin Vacherot | W 64 64 | L 46 67 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 76 64 | W 64 61 |
| Jaume Munar | W 57 63 61 | W 64 64 |
| Alex Michelsen | W 76 46 61 | L 57 36 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 63 46 1311 | W 46 75 64 |
| Ben Shelton | L 76 16 36 61 67 | W 75 63 |
| Jaime Faria | W 46 60 63 62 | L 57 16 |
| Grigor Dimitrov | W 62 63 | W 16 63 64 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | W 76 63 62 | L 36 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Jiri Lehecka
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Final
Oct 6
Jaume Munar
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Semifinals
Oct 5
Denis Shapovalov
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Matteo Arnaldi
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alex Michelsen
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Taylor Fritz
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Marcos Giron
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Juncheng Shang
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jenson Brooksby
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 23
Brandon Nakashima
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–65 matches
| Metric | Alcaraz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 86% | 54% |
| Sets won | 78% | 52% |
| Games won | 59% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alcaraz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alcaraz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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