Luciano Darderi vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Luciano Darderi and Sebastian Baez have met 9 times since 2023; Luciano Darderi leads 5–4. Their first meeting came at Cordoba Open - Cordoba in 2023 on clay. On clay courts Darderi leads 4–3. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Darderi has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Darderi has taken 13 sets to Baez's 11. Their most recent meeting: Luciano Darderi won at BCI Seguros Chile Open - Santiago (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Darderi | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Luciano Darderi | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 55% | 16/29 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 9/24 | 23% | 6/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 42% | 22/53 | 23% | 14/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 43% | 12/28 | 61% | 17/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 10/20 | 54% | 15/28 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 53% | 10/19 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 22/27 | 83% | 29/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 59% | 16/27 | 74% | 26/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Darderi 3, Baez 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Darderi
💥 Big Hitter
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🎾 All-Court is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 656 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
9 career meetings, newest first
Feb 28, 2026
BCI Seguros Chile Open - Santiago
C Clay · Semifinals
Feb 14, 2026
Argentina Open - Buenos Aires
C Clay · Semifinals
Jan 22, 2026
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jul 18, 2025
Nordea Open - Bastad
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Aug 26, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Jul 19, 2024
Hamburg Open - Hamburg
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Feb 15, 2024
Argentina Open - Buenos Aires
C Clay · 2nd Round
Feb 10, 2024
Cordoba Open - Cordoba
C Clay · Semifinals
Feb 8, 2023
Cordoba Open - Cordoba
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Darderi | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Luciano Darderi | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 95% | 18/19 | 68% | 13/19 |
| 3 or more | 79% | 15/19 | 32% | 6/19 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 9/19 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 10 or more | 16% | 3/19 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 15 or more | 11% | 2/19 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Darderi | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–8 | 8–9 |
| Avg odds | 2.16 | 2.43 |
| ROI % | +2.8% | -17.4% |
| Units P/L | +0.55u | -2.95u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Darderi | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| Distance | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km | 1,611 mi · 2,592 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Darderi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Baez's 30%).
| Opponent | Darderi | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Marcos Giron | L 61 57 46 | W 16 63 64 |
| Juncheng Shang | W 46 61 64 | L 75 36 57 |
| Brandon Nakashima | L 26 36 | L 26 16 06 |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | W 61 63 | L |
| Mattia Bellucci | W 26 64 62 | W 75 63 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | L 67 75 16 | L 64 06 36 |
| Jaime Faria | W 26 75 62 | L 57 16 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | W 75 63 | L 36 16 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 64 26 36 | W 63 36 64 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 46 36 | L 16 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Kyrian Jacquet
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Casper Ruud
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 8
Dane Sweeny
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Harry Wendelken
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Botic van de Zandschulp
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Marcos Giron
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Juncheng Shang
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jenson Brooksby
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 23
Brandon Nakashima
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 64–65 matches
| Metric | Darderi | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 54% |
| Sets won | 54% | 52% |
| Games won | 51% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Darderi | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 4 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Darderi | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 4 | 3 |
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