Luciano Darderi vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Luciano Darderi and Sebastian Baez have met 9 times since 2023; Luciano Darderi leads 5–4. Their first meeting came at Cordoba Open - Cordoba in 2023 on clay. On clay courts Darderi leads 4–3. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Darderi has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Darderi has taken 13 sets to Baez's 11. Their most recent meeting: Luciano Darderi won at BCI Seguros Chile Open - Santiago (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Darderi | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Luciano Darderi | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 21/35 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 36% | 9/25 | 19% | 5/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 23/60 | 22% | 13/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 52% | 17/33 | 63% | 17/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 43% | 9/21 | 52% | 15/29 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 52% | 11/21 | 64% | 7/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 84% | 27/32 | 85% | 29/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 66% | 21/32 | 76% | 26/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Darderi 3, Baez 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Darderi
💥 Big Hitter
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🎾 All-Court is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 620 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
9 career meetings, newest first
Feb 28, 2026
BCI Seguros Chile Open - Santiago
C Clay · Semifinals
Feb 14, 2026
Argentina Open - Buenos Aires
C Clay · Semifinals
Jan 22, 2026
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jul 18, 2025
Nordea Open - Bastad
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Aug 26, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Jul 19, 2024
Hamburg Open - Hamburg
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Feb 15, 2024
Argentina Open - Buenos Aires
C Clay · 2nd Round
Feb 10, 2024
Cordoba Open - Cordoba
C Clay · Semifinals
Feb 8, 2023
Cordoba Open - Cordoba
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Darderi | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Luciano Darderi | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 76% | 16/21 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 29% | 6/21 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 7/15 | 10% | 2/21 |
| 10 or more | 7% | 1/15 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Darderi | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–7 | 14–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.97 | 1.90 |
| ROI % | -0.4% | +8.8% |
| Units P/L | -0.07u | +1.76u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Darderi | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 3 | 4 |
| Matches | 6 | 9 |
| Distance | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km | 3,066 mi · 4,934 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA → MEX → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Darderi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Baez's 40%).
| Opponent | Darderi | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Mattia Bellucci | W 26 64 62 | W 75 63 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | L 67 75 16 | L 64 06 36 |
| Jaime Faria | W 26 75 62 | L 57 16 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | W 75 63 | L 36 16 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 64 26 36 | W 63 36 64 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 46 36 | L 16 26 |
| Luca Wiedenmann | W 62 64 | L 64 36 810 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | W 63 76 | L 62 57 26 02 |
| Jenson Brooksby | L 67 16 | W 63 76 |
| Zhizhen Zhang | W 76 36 61 | W 26 63 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Botic van de Zandschulp
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Mattia Bellucci
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 25
Rinky Hijikata
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Brandon Nakashima
National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals
Aug 11
Nuno Borges
National Bank Open - Montreal · 4th Round
Aug 8
Juncheng Shang
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Alexander Blockx
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · Semifinals
Jul 25
Jaime Faria
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Lloyd Harris
Cancun Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 23
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Cancun Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 21
Learner Tien
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Grigor Dimitrov
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Zizou Bergs
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 64–67 matches
| Metric | Darderi | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 55% |
| Sets won | 55% | 53% |
| Games won | 51% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Darderi | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 3 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Darderi | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 4 | 3 |
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