Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Sebastian Baez have met 6 times since 2021; Sebastian Baez leads 5–1. Their first meeting came at Santiago Challenger in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Baez leads 5–1. Across all meetings Carabelli has taken 4 sets to Baez's 11. Their most recent meeting: Sebastian Baez won at Argentina Open - Buenos Aires (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ugo Carabelli | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 13/22 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 7/22 | 23% | 6/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 16/44 | 23% | 14/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 4/12 | 61% | 17/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 52% | 15/29 | 54% | 15/28 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 14/17 | 83% | 29/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 13/17 | 74% | 26/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ugo Carabelli 0, Baez 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carabelli
⚙️ Grinder
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
The 🎾 All-Court archetype wins about 54% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 143 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Sebastian Baez.
All-Court players often use tactical versatility and net approach ability to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Feb 13, 2026
Argentina Open - Buenos Aires
C Clay · Quarterfinals
May 20, 2025
Hamburg Open - Hamburg
C Clay · 1st Round
Mar 1, 2025
Movistar Chile Open - Santiago
C Clay · Semifinals
Feb 22, 2025
Rio Open - Rio de Janeiro
C Clay · Semifinals
Feb 11, 2025
Argentina Open - Buenos Aires
C Clay · 1st Round
Mar 19, 2021
Santiago Challenger
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carabelli | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 68% | 13/19 |
| 3 or more | 67% | 6/9 | 32% | 6/19 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 6/9 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–7 | 8–9 |
| Avg odds | 3.43 | 2.43 |
| ROI % | -47.1% | -17.4% |
| Units P/L | -4.24u | -2.95u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 1,611 mi · 2,592 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Carabelli and Baez posted a 10% win rate.
| Opponent | Carabelli | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Jan-Lennard Struff | L 46 36 36 | L 16 67 64 62 57 |
| Brandon Nakashima | L 36 46 | L 26 16 06 |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | W 75 61 | L |
| Learner Tien | L 67 36 | L 36 67 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 36 36 | W 63 36 64 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 67 46 | L 36 46 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 46 36 | L 36 16 |
| Titouan Droguet | L 06 63 46 | L 46 46 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 16 61 36 67 | L 16 26 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | L 26 62 36 | L 62 57 26 02 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Ilia Simakin
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Rinky Hijikata
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Federico Cina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Jan-Lennard Struff
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Moez Echargui
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Nicolas Mejia
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Miomir Kecmanovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Marcos Giron
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Juncheng Shang
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jenson Brooksby
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 23
Brandon Nakashima
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–65 matches
| Metric | Carabelli | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 54% |
| Sets won | 47% | 52% |
| Games won | 48% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Carabelli | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 3 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Carabelli | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 5 |
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