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Head-to-Head

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

🇦🇷Camilo Ugo Carabelli

#76 · 27 yrs · R

1–5

6 meetings · sets 4–11

Sebastian Baez

🇦🇷Sebastian Baez

#50 · 25 yrs · R

Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Sebastian Baez have met 6 times since 2021; Sebastian Baez leads 5–1. Their first meeting came at Santiago Challenger in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Baez leads 5–1. Across all meetings Carabelli has taken 4 sets to Baez's 11. Their most recent meeting: Sebastian Baez won at Argentina Open - Buenos Aires (2026).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

IndicatorUgo CarabelliBaez
Wins in straight sets62%76%
Wins a set when losing27%19%
Goes to a deciding set33%22%
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite33%63%
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog46%52%
Tiebreak sets won58%64%
Wins after taking set 188%85%
Wins 2-0 after taking set 181%76%

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ugo Carabelli 0, Baez 3).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Carabelli

⚙️ Grinder

Relentless consistencyDeep court positioningHigh rally toleranceMental fortitude
vs

Baez

🎾 All-Court

Tactical versatilityNet approach abilitySurface adaptabilityWell-rounded game

Matchup analysis

The 🎾 All-Court archetype wins about 54% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 337 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Sebastian Baez.

All-Court players often use tactical versatility and net approach ability to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.

Previous meetings

6 career meetings, newest first

Feb 13, 2026

Argentina Open - Buenos Aires

C Clay · Quarterfinals

657
26
Baez

May 20, 2025

Hamburg Open - Hamburg

C Clay · 1st Round

63
26
64
Carabelli

Mar 1, 2025

Movistar Chile Open - Santiago

C Clay · Semifinals

16
63
26
Baez

Feb 22, 2025

Rio Open - Rio de Janeiro

C Clay · Semifinals

63
16
16
Baez

Feb 11, 2025

Argentina Open - Buenos Aires

C Clay · 1st Round

46
46
Baez

Mar 19, 2021

Santiago Challenger

C Clay · Quarterfinals

26
16
Baez

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

OutcomeCarabelliBaez
1 or more100%76%
3 or more57%29%
5 or more57%10%
10 or more0%0%
15 or more0%0%
20 or more0%0%

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

MetricCarabelliBaez
W-L3–414–6
Avg odds2.471.90
ROI %-22.6%+8.8%
Units P/L-1.58u+1.76u

Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.

Travel

Last 30 days

MetricCarabelliBaez
Countries33
Events34
Matches39
Distance1,959 mi · 3,153 km3,066 mi · 4,934 km
RouteCAN → USA → MEXCAN → USA → MEX → USA

Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Across 10 shared opponents, both Carabelli and Baez posted a 30% win rate.

OpponentCarabelliBaez
Learner Tien
L
67
36
L
36
67
Miomir Kecmanovic
L
36
36
W
63
36
64
Cameron Norrie
L
67
46
L
36
46
Yannick Hanfmann
L
46
36
L
36
16
Titouan Droguet
L
06
63
46
L
46
46
Andrey Rublev
L
16
61
36
67
L
16
26
Roman Andres Burruchaga
L
26
62
36
L
62
57
26
02
Pablo Carreno Busta
W
36
75
75
L
75
57
57
Emilio Nava
W
76
63
63
W
46
75
63
Ignacio Buse
W
63
36
75
W
64
63

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Carabelli
WLLLLWWL
W

Nicolas Mejia

Cancun Challenger · 1st Round

75
64

Aug 20

L

Miomir Kecmanovic

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round

36
36

Aug 13

L

Cameron Norrie

National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round

657
46

Aug 4

L

Titouan Droguet

Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round

06
63
46

Jul 20

L

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals

26
62
36

Jul 16

W

Pablo Carreno Busta

Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round

36
75
75

Jul 15

W

Marko Topo

Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round

627
763
63

Jul 14

L

Daniel Merida

Wimbledon · Round of 128

64
63
26
03

Jun 30

Baez
WLWWWLWL
W

Hugo Grenier

Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round

75
762

Aug 26

L

Hubert Hurkacz

Cancun Challenger · Final

64
06
36

Aug 24

W

Lloyd Harris

Cancun Challenger · Semifinals

64
64

Aug 23

W

Chak Pong Marco Lam

Cancun Challenger · Quarterfinals

64
60

Aug 22

W

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round

64
63

Aug 21

L

Learner Tien

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

36
647

Aug 16

W

Grigor Dimitrov

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round

16
63
64

Aug 14

L

Zizou Bergs

National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round

63
36
26

Aug 5

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ CarabelliBaez ahead↓ Baez

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–64 matches

MetricCarabelliBaez
Matches won47%55%
Sets won47%53%
Games won48%50%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

StageCarabelliBaez
ATP 50011
ATP 25003
ATP Challenger Tour01

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

SurfaceCarabelliBaez
Clay15

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Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Sebastian Baez FAQ

Sebastian Baez leads the head-to-head 5–1 over 6 meetings.