Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Juan Manuel CerundoloPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇷Camilo Ugo Carabelli
#77 · 27 yrs · R
7 meetings · sets 8–9
🇦🇷Juan Manuel Cerundolo
#55 · 24 yrs · L
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Juan Manuel Cerundolo have met 7 times since 2021; Juan Manuel Cerundolo leads 4–3. Their first meeting came at Luedenscheid Challenger in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Cerundolo leads 4–3. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Cerundolo leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Carabelli has taken 8 sets to Cerundolo's 9. Their most recent meeting: Camilo Ugo Carabelli won at Rosario Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ugo Carabelli | Manuel Cerundolo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 13/22 | 62% | 21/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 7/22 | 32% | 7/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 16/44 | 36% | 20/56 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 4/12 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 52% | 15/29 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 47% | 8/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 14/17 | 90% | 27/30 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 13/17 | 70% | 21/30 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ugo Carabelli 2, Manuel Cerundolo 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carabelli
⚙️ Grinder
Cerundolo
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 682 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Juan Manuel Cerundolo.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Feb 7, 2026
Rosario Challenger
C Clay · Semifinals
Nov 8, 2024
Lima 2 Challenger
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Oct 12, 2024
Villa Maria Challenger
C Clay · Semifinals
Feb 24, 2024
Santiago
C Clay · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 20, 2023
Antofagasta Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Oct 2, 2022
Buenos Aires Challenger
C Clay · Final
Aug 20, 2021
Luedenscheid Challenger
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carabelli | Cerundolo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 94% | 17/18 |
| 3 or more | 60% | 6/10 | 72% | 13/18 |
| 5 or more | 60% | 6/10 | 61% | 11/18 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 11% | 2/18 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/18 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–8 | 7–8 |
| Avg odds | 3.30 | 2.95 |
| ROI % | -52.4% | -2.4% |
| Units P/L | -5.24u | -0.36u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 1,611 mi · 2,592 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Cerundolo has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Carabelli's 50%).
| Opponent | Carabelli | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | L 64 67 57 | L 57 16 |
| Nicolas Mejia | W 75 64 | W 64 64 |
| Federico Cina | L 36 26 | W 67 64 63 |
| Ignacio Buse | W 63 36 75 | L 67 64 26 |
| Sebastian Baez | L 67 26 | W |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 36 36 | W 36 63 75 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | L 26 62 36 | W 64 64 |
| Matteo Berrettini | W 76 64 | L 36 67 67 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | W 16 62 63 | L 67 63 36 |
| Martin Damm | W 76 63 | W 62 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Ilia Simakin
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Rinky Hijikata
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Federico Cina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Jan-Lennard Struff
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Moez Echargui
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Nicolas Mejia
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Miomir Kecmanovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Carlos Alcaraz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Nicolas Mejia
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Bu Yunchaokete
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 30
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 26
Yi Zhou
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Arthur Gea
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Ignacio Buse
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · Quarterfinals
Aug 27
Sebastian Baez
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–63 matches
| Metric | Carabelli | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 59% |
| Sets won | 47% | 54% |
| Games won | 48% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Carabelli | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 3 | 3 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Carabelli | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 3 | 4 |
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