Holger Rune vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Holger Rune and Sebastian Baez have met 7 times since 2021; Holger Rune leads 4–3. Their first meeting came at Chile Dove Men+Care Open - Santiago in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Baez leads 3–2. On hard courts Rune leads 2–0. Rune has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Rune has taken 9 sets to Baez's 7. Their most recent meeting: Holger Rune won at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rune | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Holger Rune | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 6/8 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 2/4 | 19% | 5/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 4/12 | 22% | 13/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 6/12 | 63% | 17/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 52% | 15/29 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 17% | 1/6 | 64% | 7/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 7/8 | 85% | 29/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 75% | 6/8 | 76% | 26/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rune 3, Baez 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rune
🎯 Baseliner
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 53% vs 🎾 All-Court across 222 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Holger Rune.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the all-court's tactical versatility.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Oct 3, 2025
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 2nd Round
Apr 16, 2025
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · 2nd Round
May 13, 2024
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
Oct 26, 2023
Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel
H Hard · 2nd Round
Feb 8, 2022
Argentina Open - Buenos Aires
C Clay · 1st Round
Mar 15, 2021
Santiago Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Mar 9, 2021
Chile Dove Men+Care Open - Santiago
C Clay · 1st Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rune | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 14–6 |
| Avg odds | - | 1.90 |
| ROI % | - | +8.8% |
| Units P/L | - | +1.76u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rune | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 3 |
| Events | — | 4 |
| Matches | — | 9 |
| Distance | — | 3,066 mi · 4,934 km |
| Route | — | CAN → USA → MEX → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 3 shared opponents, both Rune and Baez posted a 67% win rate.
| Opponent | Rune | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Carreno Busta | W 75 63 | L 75 57 57 |
| Jenson Brooksby | L 36 36 | W 63 76 |
| Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | W 64 67 63 | W 64 64 36 57 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · Quarterfinals
Oct 17
Marton Fucsovics
BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · 2nd Round
Oct 16
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 4th Round
Oct 7
Ugo Humbert
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Sebastian Baez
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Jenson Brooksby
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Sep 28
Ethan Quinn
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Sep 27
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Lloyd Harris
Cancun Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 23
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Cancun Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 21
Learner Tien
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Grigor Dimitrov
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Zizou Bergs
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 12–64 matches
| Metric | Rune | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 55% |
| Sets won | 64% | 53% |
| Games won | 54% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rune | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rune | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Clay | 2 | 3 |
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