Daniil Medvedev vs Holger RunePrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune have met 4 times since 2023; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo in 2023 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. On hard courts they are level 1–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Medvedev leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Medvedev has taken 4 sets to Rune's 4. Their most recent meeting: Holger Rune won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Medvedev | Rune | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniil Medvedev | Holger Rune | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 28/41 | 50% | 2/4 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 7/15 | 50% | 1/2 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 50% | 3/6 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 51% | 25/49 | 40% | 2/5 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 2/4 | 100% | 1/1 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 39% | 9/23 | 33% | 1/3 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 34/36 | 67% | 2/3 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 28/36 | 67% | 2/3 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 4 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Medvedev 2, Rune 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Rune
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 1,618 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Holger Rune.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Mar 15, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Semifinals
Mar 14, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 21, 2023
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · Final
Apr 14, 2023
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 2–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.32 | 1.58 |
| ROI % | -15.1% | -17.5% |
| Units P/L | -2.42u | -0.70u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 9 | 2 |
| Distance | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 3 shared opponents, both Medvedev and Rune posted a 67% win rate.
| Opponent | Medvedev | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel Altmaier | L 46 76 46 | L 61 67 46 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 64 | W 67 63 64 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 62 63 | W 64 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jan-Lennard Struff
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Francisco Cerundolo
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Jan-Lennard Struff
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Pablo Carreno Busta
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Roman Safiullin
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Daniel Altmaier
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Kyrian Jacquet
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Grigor Dimitrov
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, DEN-BUL 3-2 · Rubber 4
Sep 19
Iliyan Radulov
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, DEN-BUL 3-2 · Rubber 2
Sep 18
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · Quarterfinals
Oct 17
Marton Fucsovics
BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · 2nd Round
Oct 16
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 4th Round
Oct 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 6–68 matches
| Metric | Medvedev | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 72% | 67% |
| Sets won | 66% | 60% |
| Games won | 56% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Medvedev | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Medvedev | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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