Daniil Medvedev vs Holger RunePrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune have met 4 times since 2023; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo in 2023 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. On hard courts they are level 1–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Medvedev leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Medvedev has taken 4 sets to Rune's 4. Their most recent meeting: Holger Rune won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Medvedev | Rune | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniil Medvedev | Holger Rune | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 29/41 | 75% | 6/8 |
| Wins a set when losing | 53% | 9/17 | 50% | 2/4 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 21/58 | 33% | 4/12 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 49% | 25/51 | 50% | 6/12 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 3/5 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 9/24 | 17% | 1/6 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 35/39 | 88% | 7/8 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 29/39 | 75% | 6/8 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Medvedev 2, Rune 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Rune
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 56% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 179 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Holger Rune.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Mar 15, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Semifinals
Mar 14, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 21, 2023
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · Final
Apr 14, 2023
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–6 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.26 | - |
| ROI % | -39.7% | - |
| Units P/L | -4.76u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 4 | — |
| Distance | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km | — |
| Route | CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 6 shared opponents, both Medvedev and Rune posted a 67% win rate.
| Opponent | Medvedev | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 64 | W 67 63 64 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | L 06 64 57 | L 36 67 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 64 60 | W 75 64 |
| Jenson Brooksby | W 62 61 | L 36 36 |
| Ugo Humbert | L 67 63 36 | W 64 64 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 62 63 | W 64 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Martin Damm
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Brandon Nakashima
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Marco Trungelliti
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Botic van de Zandschulp
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Jan-Lennard Struff
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Daniel Merida
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Marin Cilic
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Daniel Altmaier
Terra Wortmann Open - Halle · Quarterfinals
Jun 19
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · Quarterfinals
Oct 17
Marton Fucsovics
BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · 2nd Round
Oct 16
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 4th Round
Oct 7
Ugo Humbert
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Sebastian Baez
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Jenson Brooksby
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Sep 28
Ethan Quinn
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Sep 27
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 12–66 matches
| Metric | Medvedev | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 70% | 67% |
| Sets won | 65% | 64% |
| Games won | 55% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Medvedev | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Medvedev | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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