Brandon Nakashima vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Brandon Nakashima and Tommy Paul have met 5 times since 2019; Brandon Nakashima leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Cary in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Nakashima leads 2–1. Nakashima has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Nakashima has taken 8 sets to Paul's 4. Their most recent meeting: Brandon Nakashima won at Erste Bank Open - Vienna (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakashima | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Brandon Nakashima | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 23/31 | 57% | 17/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 8/20 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 16/51 | 48% | 21/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 18/33 | 38% | 15/39 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 12/16 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 14/28 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 28/33 | 79% | 22/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 70% | 23/33 | 61% | 17/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakashima 2, Paul 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Oct 23, 2024
Erste Bank Open - Vienna
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 8, 2024
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · 2nd Round
May 25, 2023
Open Parc - Lyon
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Jun 7, 2022
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · 1st Round
Sep 12, 2019
Cary
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakashima | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Brandon Nakashima | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 95% | 20/21 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 5 or more | 91% | 19/21 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 10 or more | 52% | 11/21 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 15 or more | 10% | 2/21 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/21 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–6 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.84 | 1.81 |
| ROI % | +27.8% | +1.3% |
| Units P/L | +5.84u | +0.17u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 2 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Nakashima's 60%).
| Opponent | Nakashima | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Bublik | L 76 36 67 | W 64 36 67 61 63 |
| Ugo Humbert | L 36 26 | W 63 63 |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 57 36 | W 75 46 76 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 46 63 | W 64 63 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 67 75 46 | W 46 76 64 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 62 75 | W 64 63 63 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 62 63 | L 63 36 26 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 62 61 | W 62 75 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 76 64 | W 26 63 63 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 64 | W 67 76 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alexander Bublik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Matteo Berrettini
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Ugo Humbert
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jakub Mensik
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sebastian Baez
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Carlos Alcaraz
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Alexander Bublik
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Dino Prizmic
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Chak Pong Marco Lam
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Flavio Cobolli
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–59 matches
| Metric | Nakashima | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 59% | 69% |
| Sets won | 58% | 64% |
| Games won | 53% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakashima | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakashima | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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