Brandon Nakashima vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Brandon Nakashima and Tommy Paul have met 5 times since 2019; Brandon Nakashima leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Cary in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Nakashima leads 2–1. Nakashima has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Nakashima has taken 8 sets to Paul's 4. Their most recent meeting: Brandon Nakashima won at Erste Bank Open - Vienna (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakashima | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Brandon Nakashima | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 25/34 | 55% | 16/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 7/21 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 29% | 16/55 | 49% | 20/41 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 54% | 20/37 | 39% | 14/36 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 69% | 11/16 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 15/30 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 62% | 16/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakashima 2, Paul 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 3,444 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Oct 23, 2024
Erste Bank Open - Vienna
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 8, 2024
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · 2nd Round
May 25, 2023
Open Parc - Lyon
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Jun 7, 2022
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · 1st Round
Sep 12, 2019
Cary
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakashima | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Brandon Nakashima | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 5 or more | 91% | 19/21 | 80% | 12/15 |
| 10 or more | 43% | 9/21 | 33% | 5/15 |
| 15 or more | 14% | 3/21 | 13% | 2/15 |
| 20 or more | 10% | 2/21 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 16–5 | 10–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.87 | 1.54 |
| ROI % | +38.6% | +12.2% |
| Units P/L | +8.10u | +1.71u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 13 | 5 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Nakashima's 60%).
| Opponent | Nakashima | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Frances Tiafoe | L 57 36 | W 75 46 76 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 46 63 | W 64 63 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 67 75 46 | W 46 76 64 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 62 75 | W 64 63 63 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 62 63 | L 63 36 26 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 62 61 | W 62 75 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 76 64 | W 26 63 63 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 64 | W 67 76 76 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | L 46 06 | L 57 67 |
| Alexandre Muller | L 26 57 | W 61 62 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Nuno Borges
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Daniil Medvedev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ben Shelton
National Bank Open - Montreal · Final
Aug 14
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · Semifinals
Aug 13
Luciano Darderi
National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals
Aug 11
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Hubert Hurkacz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Learner Tien
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Kamil Majchrzak
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Hubert Hurkacz
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Soonwoo Kwon
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–61 matches
| Metric | Nakashima | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 69% |
| Sets won | 59% | 64% |
| Games won | 53% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakashima | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakashima | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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