Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil MedvedevPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Brandon Nakashima and Daniil Medvedev have met 4 times since 2023; Daniil Medvedev leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Medvedev leads 2–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Medvedev leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Nakashima has taken 3 sets to Medvedev's 7. Their most recent meeting: Brandon Nakashima won at Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakashima | Medvedev | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Brandon Nakashima | Daniil Medvedev | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 25/34 | 71% | 29/41 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 7/21 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 29% | 16/55 | 36% | 21/58 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 54% | 20/37 | 49% | 25/51 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 69% | 11/16 | 60% | 3/5 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 15/30 | 38% | 9/24 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 90% | 35/39 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 74% | 29/39 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakashima 0, Medvedev 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 616 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Aug 18, 2026
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jan 11, 2026
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · Final
Apr 29, 2025
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 4th Round
Mar 10, 2023
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakashima | Medvedev | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Brandon Nakashima | Daniil Medvedev | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 5 or more | 91% | 19/21 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 10 or more | 43% | 9/21 | 54% | 7/13 |
| 15 or more | 14% | 3/21 | 15% | 2/13 |
| 20 or more | 10% | 2/21 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 16–5 | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.87 | 1.26 |
| ROI % | +38.6% | -39.7% |
| Units P/L | +8.10u | -4.76u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 13 | 4 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nakashima has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Medvedev's 40%).
| Opponent | Nakashima | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Damm | W 76 62 | L 57 36 |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 57 36 | L 36 26 |
| Nuno Borges | W 63 67 63 | W 64 67 62 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 76 57 75 | L 64 26 46 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 36 64 67 67 | L 36 67 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 62 61 | L 46 76 46 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 76 64 | W 64 64 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 64 | W 63 64 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | L 64 67 67 76 67 | L 67 67 57 |
| Marin Cilic | L 62 46 67 | W 61 62 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Nuno Borges
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Daniil Medvedev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ben Shelton
National Bank Open - Montreal · Final
Aug 14
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · Semifinals
Aug 13
Luciano Darderi
National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals
Aug 11
Martin Damm
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Brandon Nakashima
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Marco Trungelliti
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Botic van de Zandschulp
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Jan-Lennard Struff
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Daniel Merida
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Marin Cilic
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Daniel Altmaier
Terra Wortmann Open - Halle · Quarterfinals
Jun 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 61–66 matches
| Metric | Nakashima | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 70% |
| Sets won | 59% | 65% |
| Games won | 53% | 55% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakashima | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakashima | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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