Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil MedvedevPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Brandon Nakashima and Daniil Medvedev have met 4 times since 2023; Daniil Medvedev leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Medvedev leads 2–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Medvedev leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Nakashima has taken 3 sets to Medvedev's 7. Their most recent meeting: Brandon Nakashima won at Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakashima | Medvedev | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Brandon Nakashima | Daniil Medvedev | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 23/31 | 68% | 28/41 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 8/20 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 16/51 | 36% | 20/56 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 18/33 | 51% | 25/49 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 12/16 | 50% | 2/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 14/28 | 39% | 9/23 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 28/33 | 94% | 34/36 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 70% | 23/33 | 78% | 28/36 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakashima 0, Medvedev 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 1,511 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Aug 18, 2026
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jan 11, 2026
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · Final
Apr 29, 2025
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 4th Round
Mar 10, 2023
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakashima | Medvedev | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Brandon Nakashima | Daniil Medvedev | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 100% | 17/17 |
| 3 or more | 95% | 20/21 | 100% | 17/17 |
| 5 or more | 91% | 19/21 | 88% | 15/17 |
| 10 or more | 52% | 11/21 | 82% | 14/17 |
| 15 or more | 10% | 2/21 | 24% | 4/17 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/21 | 12% | 2/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–6 | 11–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.84 | 1.32 |
| ROI % | +27.8% | -15.1% |
| Units P/L | +5.84u | -2.42u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 9 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Medvedev has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Nakashima's 50%).
| Opponent | Nakashima | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Jan-Lennard Struff | L 64 67 67 76 67 | W 46 64 63 |
| Matteo Berrettini | W 76 75 | L 06 06 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | L 76 36 46 | W 76 63 |
| Ugo Humbert | L 36 26 | L 67 63 36 |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 57 36 | L 67 46 67 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 76 57 75 | W 64 64 64 |
| Alex Michelsen | L 36 46 46 | W 62 64 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 62 61 60 | W 64 60 |
| Martin Damm | W 76 62 | L 57 36 |
| Nuno Borges | W 63 67 63 | W 64 67 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alexander Bublik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Matteo Berrettini
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Ugo Humbert
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jakub Mensik
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sebastian Baez
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Jan-Lennard Struff
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Francisco Cerundolo
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Jan-Lennard Struff
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Pablo Carreno Busta
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Roman Safiullin
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 59–68 matches
| Metric | Nakashima | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 59% | 72% |
| Sets won | 58% | 66% |
| Games won | 53% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakashima | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakashima | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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