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Head-to-Head

Brandon Nakashima vs Carlos AlcarazPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

Brandon Nakashima

🇺🇸Brandon Nakashima

#17 · 25 yrs · R

3
0–3

3 meetings · sets 1–7

Carlos Alcaraz

🇪🇸Carlos Alcaraz

#3 · 23 yrs · R

20w

Brandon Nakashima and Carlos Alcaraz have met 3 times since 2021; Carlos Alcaraz leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Oeiras 3 Challenger in 2021 on clay. On hard courts Alcaraz leads 2–0. Alcaraz has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Nakashima has taken 1 sets to Alcaraz's 7. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo (2025).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

IndicatorNakashimaAlcaraz
Wins in straight sets74%80%
Wins a set when losing33%33%
Goes to a deciding set29%23%
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite54%69%
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog69%0%
Tiebreak sets won50%40%
Wins after taking set 188%95%
Wins 2-0 after taking set 174%91%

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakashima 0, Alcaraz 1).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Nakashima

🤖 Servebot

High ace rateDominant serviceWeaker returnBig first serve
vs

Alcaraz

👑 The Complete Package

Elite serve & returnHigh BP conversionAll-surface dominanceClutch performer

Matchup analysis

🤖 Servebot vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 616 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.

Previous meetings

3 career meetings, newest first

Sep 28, 2025

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo

H Hard · Quarterfinals

26
46
Alcaraz

Nov 10, 2021

Next Gen ATP Finals - Milan

H Hard · Round Robin

344
14
344
Alcaraz

May 19, 2021

Oeiras 3 Challenger

C Clay · 2nd Round

63
46
46
Alcaraz

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

MetricNakashimaAlcaraz
W-L16–5-
Avg odds1.87-
ROI %+38.6%-
Units P/L+8.10u-

Travel

Last 30 days

MetricNakashimaAlcaraz
Countries2—
Events3—
Matches13—
Distance1,200 mi · 1,932 km—
RouteUSA → CAN → USA—

Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Nakashima's 60%).

OpponentNakashimaAlcaraz
Taylor Fritz
W
76
46
63
W
67
75
63
Daniil Medvedev
W
67
76
61
L
36
67
Arthur Rinderknech
W
76
57
75
W
67
63
62
Alex de Minaur
W
76
64
W
75
62
61
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
W
63
64
W
61
46
63
Francisco Cerundolo
L
76
36
46
W
62
61
Felix Auger-Aliassime
L
75
16
67
67
W
62
64
Arthur Fils
L
26
36
W
62
61
Valentin Vacherot
W
26
62
63
W
64
64
Alexander Zverev
L
67
75
46
W
64
76
67
67
75

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Nakashima
LWWWWLWW
L

Frances Tiafoe

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals

57
36

Aug 23

W

Taylor Fritz

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals

769
46
63

Aug 21

W

Nuno Borges

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round

63
657
63

Aug 20

W

Daniil Medvedev

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round

637
764
61

Aug 18

W

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

62
75

Aug 16

L

Ben Shelton

National Bank Open - Montreal · Final

36
647

Aug 14

W

Rafael Jodar

National Bank Open - Montreal · Semifinals

763
64

Aug 13

W

Luciano Darderi

National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals

62
63

Aug 11

Alcaraz
WLWWWWLW
W

Otto Virtanen

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona · 1st Round

64
62

Apr 14

L

Jannik Sinner

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · Final

657
36

Apr 12

W

Valentin Vacherot

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · Semifinals

64
64

Apr 11

W

Alexander Bublik

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · Quarterfinals

63
60

Apr 10

W

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · 3rd Round

61
46
63

Apr 9

W

Sebastian Baez

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · 2nd Round

61
63

Apr 7

L

Sebastian Korda

Miami Open - Miami · 3rd Round

36
75
46

Mar 22

W

Joao Fonseca

Miami Open - Miami · 2nd Round

64
64

Mar 20

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ NakashimaAlcaraz ahead↓ Alcaraz

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–61 matches

MetricNakashimaAlcaraz
Matches won61%86%
Sets won59%80%
Games won53%59%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

StageNakashimaAlcaraz
ATP 50001
Other01
ATP Challenger Tour01

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

SurfaceNakashimaAlcaraz
Hard02
Clay01

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Brandon Nakashima vs Carlos Alcaraz FAQ

Carlos Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 3–0 over 3 meetings.