Brandon Nakashima vs Carlos AlcarazPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Brandon Nakashima and Carlos Alcaraz have met 3 times since 2021; Carlos Alcaraz leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Oeiras 3 Challenger in 2021 on clay. On hard courts Alcaraz leads 2–0. Alcaraz has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Nakashima has taken 1 sets to Alcaraz's 7. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakashima | Alcaraz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Brandon Nakashima | Carlos Alcaraz | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 23/31 | 72% | 18/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 8/20 | 40% | 2/5 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 16/51 | 30% | 9/30 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 18/33 | 64% | 18/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 12/16 | 0% | 0/2 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 14/28 | 54% | 7/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 28/33 | 95% | 21/22 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 70% | 23/33 | 82% | 18/22 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakashima 0, Alcaraz 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 1,511 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 28, 2025
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Nov 10, 2021
Next Gen ATP Finals - Milan
H Hard · Round Robin
May 19, 2021
Oeiras 3 Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakashima | Alcaraz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Brandon Nakashima | Carlos Alcaraz | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 95% | 20/21 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 5 or more | 91% | 19/21 | 25% | 3/12 |
| 10 or more | 52% | 11/21 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 10% | 2/21 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/21 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–6 | 11–1 |
| Avg odds | 1.84 | 1.15 |
| ROI % | +27.8% | +4.3% |
| Units P/L | +5.84u | +0.51u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 3 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 7 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | GBR → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Nakashima's 70%).
| Opponent | Nakashima | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Bublik | L 76 36 67 | W 63 60 |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | W 63 75 | W 63 63 |
| Alex Michelsen | L 36 46 46 | W 76 46 61 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 46 63 | W 63 46 1311 |
| Ben Shelton | L 36 67 | L 76 16 36 61 67 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 62 61 60 | W 61 63 |
| Daniil Medvedev | W 67 76 61 | L 36 67 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 76 57 75 | W 67 63 62 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 76 64 | W 75 62 61 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 64 | W 61 46 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alexander Bublik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Matteo Berrettini
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Ugo Humbert
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jakub Mensik
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sebastian Baez
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Jiri Lehecka
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Final
Oct 6
Jaume Munar
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Semifinals
Oct 5
Denis Shapovalov
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Matteo Arnaldi
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alex Michelsen
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Taylor Fritz
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–59 matches
| Metric | Nakashima | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 59% | 86% |
| Sets won | 58% | 78% |
| Games won | 53% | 59% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakashima | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakashima | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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