Alex de Minaur vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Tommy Paul have met 7 times since 2022; Alex de Minaur leads 5–2. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2022 on hard. On clay courts Paul leads 2–1. On hard courts Minaur leads 3–0. Paul has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Minaur leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 11 sets to Paul's 7. Their most recent meeting: Tommy Paul won at Hamburg Open - Hamburg (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 55% | 16/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 49% | 20/41 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 39% | 14/36 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 62% | 16/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 2, Paul 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 2,363 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
May 22, 2026
Hamburg Open - Hamburg
C Clay · Semifinals
May 13, 2025
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 4th Round
Aug 3, 2023
Abierto de Tenis Mifel - Los Cabos
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 4, 2023
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · Final
Jun 23, 2022
Viking International - Eastbourne
G Grass · Quarterfinals
May 11, 2022
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round
Mar 15, 2022
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 80% | 12/15 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 33% | 5/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 13% | 2/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 10–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 1.54 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | +12.2% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | +1.71u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 5 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Minaur and Paul posted a 70% win rate.
| Opponent | Minaur | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Arthur Fils | L 36 46 | L 76 67 67 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 16 46 | W 46 76 64 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 64 46 64 | W 64 67 63 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | L 36 62 67 | L 57 67 |
| Zachary Svajda | W 62 57 62 64 | W 75 63 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 62 62 | W 62 26 64 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | W 76 61 60 | W 61 36 75 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 36 64 63 | L 76 46 36 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 64 63 | W 63 63 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 46 64 | W 63 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Hubert Hurkacz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Learner Tien
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Kamil Majchrzak
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Hubert Hurkacz
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Soonwoo Kwon
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 69% |
| Sets won | 62% | 64% |
| Games won | 54% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 2 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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