Alex de Minaur vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Tommy Paul have met 7 times since 2022; Alex de Minaur leads 5–2. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2022 on hard. On clay courts Paul leads 2–1. On hard courts Minaur leads 3–0. Paul has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Minaur leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 11 sets to Paul's 7. Their most recent meeting: Tommy Paul won at Hamburg Open - Hamburg (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 57% | 17/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 48% | 21/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 38% | 15/39 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 79% | 22/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 61% | 17/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 2, Paul 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
May 22, 2026
Hamburg Open - Hamburg
C Clay · Semifinals
May 13, 2025
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 4th Round
Aug 3, 2023
Abierto de Tenis Mifel - Los Cabos
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 4, 2023
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · Final
Jun 23, 2022
Viking International - Eastbourne
G Grass · Quarterfinals
May 11, 2022
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round
Mar 15, 2022
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 1.81 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | +1.3% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | +0.17u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 2 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Minaur and Paul posted a 60% win rate.
| Opponent | Minaur | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hubert Hurkacz | W | W 64 67 63 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 26 76 119 | W 46 76 64 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | W 63 63 | L 57 67 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | L 57 26 16 | L 46 36 46 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 46 57 26 | W 76 63 |
| Alexander Bublik | W 64 61 61 | W 64 36 67 61 63 |
| Flavio Cobolli | L 57 67 36 | L 62 36 46 |
| Arthur Fils | L 36 46 | L 76 67 67 |
| Zachary Svajda | W 62 57 62 64 | W 75 63 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 62 62 | W 62 26 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Carlos Alcaraz
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Alexander Bublik
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Dino Prizmic
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Chak Pong Marco Lam
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Flavio Cobolli
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 69% |
| Sets won | 63% | 64% |
| Games won | 54% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 2 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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