Alex de Minaur vs Brandon NakashimaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Brandon Nakashima have met 4 times since 2021; Brandon Nakashima leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at European Open - Antwerp in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Nakashima leads 2–1. Nakashima has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 2 sets to Nakashima's 6. Their most recent meeting: Brandon Nakashima won at Citi Open - Washington (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Nakashima | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Brandon Nakashima | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 33% | 7/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 29% | 16/55 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 54% | 20/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 69% | 11/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 50% | 15/30 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 74% | 25/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 1, Nakashima 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 2,280 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Brandon Nakashima.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jul 31, 2026
Citi Open - Washington
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jun 19, 2026
HSBC Championships - London
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Jul 25, 2025
Citi Open - Washington
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Oct 19, 2021
European Open - Antwerp
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Nakashima | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Brandon Nakashima | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 21/21 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 100% | 21/21 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 91% | 19/21 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 43% | 9/21 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 14% | 3/21 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 10% | 2/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 16–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 1.87 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | +38.6% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | +8.10u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 6 | 13 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | USA → CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nakashima has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Minaur's 60%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Frances Tiafoe | W 63 64 75 | L 57 36 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 63 | W 76 46 63 |
| Nuno Borges | W 75 62 | W 63 67 63 |
| Arthur Fils | L 36 46 | L 26 36 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 46 46 | W 67 76 61 |
| Quentin Halys | W 16 63 76 | W 62 64 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 16 | W 76 64 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 60 63 | W 62 63 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 63 36 76 | W 76 57 75 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 60 26 26 36 | W 76 36 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Nuno Borges
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Daniil Medvedev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ben Shelton
National Bank Open - Montreal · Final
Aug 14
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · Semifinals
Aug 13
Luciano Darderi
National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals
Aug 11
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 61–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 61% |
| Sets won | 62% | 59% |
| Games won | 54% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 2 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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