Alex de Minaur vs Brandon NakashimaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Brandon Nakashima have met 4 times since 2021; Brandon Nakashima leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at European Open - Antwerp in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Nakashima leads 2–1. Nakashima has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 2 sets to Nakashima's 6. Their most recent meeting: Brandon Nakashima won at Citi Open - Washington (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Nakashima | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Brandon Nakashima | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 74% | 23/31 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 40% | 8/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 31% | 16/51 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 55% | 18/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 75% | 12/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 50% | 14/28 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 85% | 28/33 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 70% | 23/33 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 1, Nakashima 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Brandon Nakashima.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jul 31, 2026
Citi Open - Washington
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jun 19, 2026
HSBC Championships - London
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Jul 25, 2025
Citi Open - Washington
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Oct 19, 2021
European Open - Antwerp
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Nakashima | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Brandon Nakashima | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 21/21 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 95% | 20/21 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 91% | 19/21 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 52% | 11/21 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 10% | 2/21 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 5% | 1/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 15–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 1.84 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | +27.8% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | +5.84u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 4 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | GBR → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Nakashima's 40%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Bublik | W 64 61 61 | L 76 36 67 |
| Matteo Berrettini | W 61 76 | W 76 75 |
| Quentin Halys | W 36 76 75 | W 62 64 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 64 63 | L 36 26 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 26 76 119 | L 67 75 46 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 60 26 26 36 | W 61 36 107 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 46 57 26 | L 36 64 67 67 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 63 64 75 | L 57 36 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 63 | W 76 46 63 |
| Arthur Fils | L 36 46 | L 26 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Alexander Bublik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Matteo Berrettini
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Ugo Humbert
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jakub Mensik
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sebastian Baez
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 59–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 59% |
| Sets won | 63% | 58% |
| Games won | 54% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 2 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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