Daniil Medvedev vs Rafael NadalPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal have met 6 times since 2019; Rafael Nadal leads 5–1. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Canada in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Nadal leads 5–1. Nadal has won the last 2 meetings. 3 of their meetings have been finals, with Nadal leading those 3–0. Across all meetings Medvedev has taken 7 sets to Nadal's 13. Their most recent meeting: Rafael Nadal won at Acapulco (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Medvedev | Nadal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniil Medvedev | Rafael Nadal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 29/41 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 53% | 9/17 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 21/58 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 49% | 25/51 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 3/5 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 9/24 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 35/39 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 29/39 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Medvedev 0, Nadal 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Nadal
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 532 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Feb 25, 2022
Acapulco
H Hard · Semifinals
Jan 30, 2022
Australian Open
H Hard · Final
Nov 18, 2020
Nitto ATP Finals
H Hard · Semifinals
Nov 13, 2019
Nitto ATP Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Sep 8, 2019
US Open
H Hard · Final
Aug 11, 2019
ATP Masters 1000 Canada
H Hard · Final
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–6 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.26 | - |
| ROI % | -39.7% | - |
| Units P/L | -4.76u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 4 | — |
| Distance | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km | — |
| Route | CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Martin Damm
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Brandon Nakashima
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Marco Trungelliti
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Botic van de Zandschulp
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Jan-Lennard Struff
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Daniel Merida
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Marin Cilic
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Daniel Altmaier
Terra Wortmann Open - Halle · Quarterfinals
Jun 19
Nuno Borges
Bastad · Final
Jul 21
Duje Ajdukovic
Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 20
Mariano Navone
Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 19
Cameron Norrie
Bastad · Round of 16
Jul 18
Leo Borg
Bastad · Round of 32
Jul 16
Alexander Zverev
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 28
Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Masters 1000 Rome · Round of 64
May 11
Zizou Bergs
ATP Masters 1000 Rome · Round of 128
May 9
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 66–66 matches
| Metric | Medvedev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 70% | - |
| Sets won | 65% | - |
| Games won | 55% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Medvedev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 3 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Medvedev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 5 |
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