Daniil Medvedev vs Rafael NadalPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal have met 6 times since 2019; Rafael Nadal leads 5–1. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Canada in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Nadal leads 5–1. Nadal has won the last 2 meetings. 3 of their meetings have been finals, with Nadal leading those 3–0. Across all meetings Medvedev has taken 7 sets to Nadal's 13. Their most recent meeting: Rafael Nadal won at Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Medvedev | Nadal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniil Medvedev | Rafael Nadal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 28/41 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 7/15 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 51% | 25/49 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 2/4 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 39% | 9/23 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 34/36 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 28/36 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Medvedev 0, Nadal 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Nadal
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
Both Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal are 👑 The Complete Package types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 782 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Feb 25, 2022
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · Semifinals
Jan 30, 2022
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · Final
Nov 21, 2020
Nitto ATP Finals - London
H Hard · Semifinals
Nov 13, 2019
Nitto ATP Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Sep 8, 2019
US Open
H Hard · Final
Aug 11, 2019
ATP Masters 1000 Canada
H Hard · Final
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.32 | - |
| ROI % | -15.1% | - |
| Units P/L | -2.42u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 9 | — |
| Distance | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km | — |
| Route | CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jan-Lennard Struff
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Francisco Cerundolo
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Jan-Lennard Struff
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Pablo Carreno Busta
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Roman Safiullin
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Botic van de Zandschulp
Davis Cup, World Group, QF, NED-ESP 2-1 · Rubber 1
Nov 19
Novak Djokovic
Olympics - Paris · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Marton Fucsovics
Olympics - Paris · 1st Round
Jul 28
Nuno Borges
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 21
Duje Ajdukovic
Nordea Open - Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 20
Mariano Navone
Nordea Open - Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 19
Cameron Norrie
Nordea Open - Bastad · 2nd Round
Jul 18
Leo Borg
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 68–68 matches
| Metric | Medvedev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 72% | - |
| Sets won | 66% | - |
| Games won | 56% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Medvedev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 3 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| ATP Finals | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Medvedev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 5 |
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