Cameron Norrie vs Rafael NadalPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Cameron Norrie and Rafael Nadal have met 8 times since 2021; Rafael Nadal leads 7–1. Their first meeting came at Australian Open in 2021 on hard. On clay courts Nadal leads 4–0. On hard courts Nadal leads 3–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Nadal leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Norrie has taken 2 sets to Nadal's 18. Their most recent meeting: Rafael Nadal won at Nordea Open - Bastad (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Norrie | Nadal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Cameron Norrie | Rafael Nadal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 13/26 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 9/21 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 47% | 22/47 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 46% | 12/26 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 12/20 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 41% | 11/27 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 19/21 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 62% | 13/21 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 4 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Norrie 0, Nadal 4).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Norrie
🎯 Baseliner
Nadal
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 53% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 380 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Cameron Norrie.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
8 career meetings, newest first
Jul 18, 2024
Nordea Open - Bastad
C Clay · 2nd Round
Dec 31, 2022
United Cup
H Hard · Round Robin
Feb 26, 2022
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · Final
Jun 5, 2021
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 3rd Round
Apr 23, 2021
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Apr 19, 2021
Barcelona
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Feb 13, 2021
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
Feb 8, 2021
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 32
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Norrie | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–6 | - |
| Avg odds | 2.25 | - |
| ROI % | -15.3% | - |
| Units P/L | -1.99u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Norrie | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 2 | — |
| Distance | 663 mi · 1,067 km | — |
| Route | CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Dalibor Svrcina
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Alexander Zverev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Luca Van Assche
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Dino Prizmic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Arthur Fils
National Bank Open - Montreal · 4th Round
Aug 9
Alex de Minaur
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Ignacio Buse
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Botic van de Zandschulp
Davis Cup, World Group, QF, NED-ESP 2-1 · Rubber 1
Nov 19
Novak Djokovic
Olympics - Paris · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Marton Fucsovics
Olympics - Paris · 1st Round
Jul 28
Nuno Borges
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 21
Duje Ajdukovic
Nordea Open - Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 20
Mariano Navone
Nordea Open - Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 19
Cameron Norrie
Nordea Open - Bastad · 2nd Round
Jul 18
Leo Borg
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–52 matches
| Metric | Norrie | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 54% | - |
| Sets won | 51% | - |
| Games won | 51% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Norrie | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 3 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 3 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Norrie | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 4 |
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