Cameron Norrie vs Rafael NadalPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Cameron Norrie and Rafael Nadal have met 6 times since 2021; Rafael Nadal leads 5–1. Their first meeting came at Australian Open in 2021 on hard. On clay courts Nadal leads 3–0. On hard courts Nadal leads 2–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Nadal leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Norrie has taken 2 sets to Nadal's 13. Their most recent meeting: Rafael Nadal won at Bastad (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Norrie | Nadal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Cameron Norrie | Rafael Nadal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 15/29 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 41% | 9/22 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 45% | 23/51 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 14/28 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 59% | 13/22 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 45% | 14/31 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 22/25 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 60% | 15/25 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Norrie 0, Nadal 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Norrie
🎯 Baseliner
Nadal
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🎯 Baseliner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,047 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Jul 18, 2024
Bastad
C Clay · Round of 16
Dec 31, 2022
United Cup
H Hard · Round Robin
Feb 26, 2022
Acapulco
H Hard · Final
Jun 5, 2021
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 32
Apr 19, 2021
Barcelona
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Feb 8, 2021
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 32
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Norrie | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–5 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.95 | - |
| ROI % | -8.3% | - |
| Units P/L | -0.99u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Norrie | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 8 | — |
| Distance | 3,258 mi · 5,243 km | — |
| Route | MEX → CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Dino Prizmic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Arthur Fils
National Bank Open - Montreal · 4th Round
Aug 9
Alex de Minaur
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Ignacio Buse
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Denis Shapovalov
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Semifinals
Jul 31
Bernard Tomic
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Nuno Borges
Bastad · Final
Jul 21
Duje Ajdukovic
Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 20
Mariano Navone
Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 19
Cameron Norrie
Bastad · Round of 16
Jul 18
Leo Borg
Bastad · Round of 32
Jul 16
Alexander Zverev
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 28
Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Masters 1000 Rome · Round of 64
May 11
Zizou Bergs
ATP Masters 1000 Rome · Round of 128
May 9
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 55–55 matches
| Metric | Norrie | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | - |
| Sets won | 53% | - |
| Games won | 51% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Norrie | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Norrie | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 3 |
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