Alex de Minaur vs Cameron NorriePrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Cameron Norrie have met 6 times since 2022; they are level 3–3. Their first meeting came at Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona in 2022 on clay. On hard courts Norrie leads 3–1. On clay courts Minaur leads 2–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 7 sets to Norrie's 8. Their most recent meeting: Cameron Norrie won at National Bank Open - Montreal (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Norrie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Cameron Norrie | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 52% | 15/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 41% | 9/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 45% | 23/51 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 50% | 14/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 45% | 14/31 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 88% | 22/25 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 60% | 15/25 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 1, Norrie 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Norrie
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 790 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Cameron Norrie.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Aug 6, 2026
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · 3rd Round
Apr 7, 2026
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 2nd Round
Mar 9, 2026
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 8, 2023
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 1st Round
Dec 29, 2022
United Cup
H Hard · Round Robin
Apr 22, 2022
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Norrie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Cameron Norrie | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 33% | 4/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Norrie |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 7–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 1.95 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | -8.3% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | -0.99u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Norrie |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 6 | 8 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 3,258 mi · 5,243 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | MEX → CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Norrie's 40%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Norrie |
|---|---|---|
| Arthur Fils | L 36 46 | L 26 67 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 16 46 | L 63 36 36 |
| James Duckworth | W 62 76 | W 64 64 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | W 64 62 | W 76 64 |
| Denis Shapovalov | W 64 61 | L 36 75 46 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 46 64 | L 67 26 |
| Benjamin Bonzi | W 62 64 | W 60 67 46 63 64 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 57 26 | L 26 57 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 16 | L 36 26 |
| Stan Wawrinka | W 64 62 | W 64 67 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Dino Prizmic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Arthur Fils
National Bank Open - Montreal · 4th Round
Aug 9
Alex de Minaur
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Ignacio Buse
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Denis Shapovalov
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Semifinals
Jul 31
Bernard Tomic
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 55–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Norrie |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 56% |
| Sets won | 62% | 53% |
| Games won | 54% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Norrie |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 2 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Norrie |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
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