Alex de Minaur vs Cameron NorriePrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Cameron Norrie have met 6 times since 2022; they are level 3–3. Their first meeting came at Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona in 2022 on clay. On hard courts Norrie leads 3–1. On clay courts Minaur leads 2–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 7 sets to Norrie's 8. Their most recent meeting: Cameron Norrie won at National Bank Open - Montreal (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Norrie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Cameron Norrie | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 50% | 13/26 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 43% | 9/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 47% | 22/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 46% | 12/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 41% | 11/27 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 90% | 19/21 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 62% | 13/21 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 1, Norrie 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Norrie
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 54% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 979 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Cameron Norrie.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Aug 6, 2026
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · 3rd Round
Apr 7, 2026
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 2nd Round
Mar 9, 2026
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 8, 2023
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 1st Round
Dec 29, 2022
United Cup
H Hard · Round Robin
Apr 22, 2022
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Norrie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Cameron Norrie | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 69% | 9/13 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 23% | 3/13 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Norrie |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 7–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 2.25 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | -15.3% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | -1.99u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Norrie |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 2 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Norrie's 30%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Norrie |
|---|---|---|
| Andrey Rublev | W 16 62 63 | W 62 67 62 |
| Mariano Navone | W 76 62 | L 46 46 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 26 76 119 | L 67 46 |
| Arthur Fils | L 36 46 | L 26 67 |
| James Duckworth | W 62 76 | W 64 64 |
| Denis Shapovalov | W 64 61 | L 36 75 46 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 46 64 | L 67 26 |
| Benjamin Bonzi | W 62 64 | W 60 67 46 63 64 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 57 26 | L 26 57 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 16 | L 36 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Dalibor Svrcina
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Alexander Zverev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Luca Van Assche
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Dino Prizmic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Arthur Fils
National Bank Open - Montreal · 4th Round
Aug 9
Alex de Minaur
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Ignacio Buse
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Norrie |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 54% |
| Sets won | 63% | 51% |
| Games won | 54% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Norrie |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 2 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Norrie |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
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