Denis Shapovalov vs Rafael NadalPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Denis Shapovalov and Rafael Nadal have met 7 times since 2017; Rafael Nadal leads 5–2. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Canada in 2017 on hard. On clay courts Nadal leads 3–1. On hard courts Nadal leads 2–1. Across all meetings Shapovalov has taken 10 sets to Nadal's 14. Their most recent meeting: Denis Shapovalov won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Shapovalov | Nadal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Denis Shapovalov | Rafael Nadal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 45% | 10/22 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 35% | 6/17 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 18/39 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 35% | 9/26 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 69% | 9/13 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 62% | 8/13 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 18/22 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 45% | 10/22 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 1 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Shapovalov 0, Nadal 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Shapovalov
💥 Big Hitter
Nadal
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 1,618 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Denis Shapovalov.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
May 12, 2022
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
Jan 25, 2022
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jan 21, 2022
Australian Open
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 13, 2021
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
May 10, 2021
ATP Masters 1000 Rome
C Clay · Round of 16
May 11, 2018
ATP Masters 1000 Rome
C Clay · Round of 16
Aug 10, 2017
ATP Masters 1000 Canada
H Hard · Round of 16
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–5 | - |
| Avg odds | 2.15 | - |
| ROI % | +12.3% | - |
| Units P/L | +2.09u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 7 | — |
| Distance | 2,080 mi · 3,347 km | — |
| Route | CHN → JPN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Sho Shimabukuro
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Hubert Hurkacz
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Semifinals
Sep 28
Adrian Mannarino
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Vit Kopriva
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Tallon Griekspoor
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Botic van de Zandschulp
Davis Cup, World Group, QF, NED-ESP 2-1 · Rubber 1
Nov 19
Novak Djokovic
Olympics - Paris · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Marton Fucsovics
Olympics - Paris · 1st Round
Jul 28
Nuno Borges
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 21
Duje Ajdukovic
Nordea Open - Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 20
Mariano Navone
Nordea Open - Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 19
Cameron Norrie
Nordea Open - Bastad · 2nd Round
Jul 18
Leo Borg
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–45 matches
| Metric | Shapovalov | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | - |
| Sets won | 52% | - |
| Games won | 51% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Shapovalov | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 3 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Shapovalov | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 3 |
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