Denis Shapovalov vs Rafael NadalPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Denis Shapovalov and Rafael Nadal have met 5 times since 2017; Rafael Nadal leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Canada in 2017 on hard. On clay courts Nadal leads 2–1. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Shapovalov has taken 7 sets to Nadal's 9. Their most recent meeting: Denis Shapovalov won at ATP Masters 1000 Rome (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Shapovalov | Nadal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Denis Shapovalov | Rafael Nadal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 44% | 8/18 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 28% | 5/18 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 42% | 15/36 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 30% | 7/23 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 62% | 8/13 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 60% | 6/10 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 15/18 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 44% | 8/18 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 1 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Shapovalov 0, Nadal 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Shapovalov
💥 Big Hitter
Nadal
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Denis Shapovalov and Rafael Nadal are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 2,644 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
May 12, 2022
ATP Masters 1000 Rome
C Clay · Round of 16
Jan 21, 2022
Australian Open
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 10, 2021
ATP Masters 1000 Rome
C Clay · Round of 16
May 11, 2018
ATP Masters 1000 Rome
C Clay · Round of 16
Aug 10, 2017
ATP Masters 1000 Canada
H Hard · Round of 16
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–5 | - |
| Avg odds | 2.01 | - |
| ROI % | -7.8% | - |
| Units P/L | -0.86u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 5 | — |
| Distance | 1,847 mi · 2,972 km | — |
| Route | MEX → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rafael Jodar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Adrian Mannarino
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Arthur Gea
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Final
Aug 1
Cameron Norrie
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Semifinals
Jul 31
Dalibor Svrcina
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Rinky Hijikata
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 1st Round
Jul 29
Pablo Carreno Busta
Wimbledon · Round of 128
Jun 30
Nuno Borges
Bastad · Final
Jul 21
Duje Ajdukovic
Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 20
Mariano Navone
Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 19
Cameron Norrie
Bastad · Round of 16
Jul 18
Leo Borg
Bastad · Round of 32
Jul 16
Alexander Zverev
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 28
Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Masters 1000 Rome · Round of 64
May 11
Zizou Bergs
ATP Masters 1000 Rome · Round of 128
May 9
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–39 matches
| Metric | Shapovalov | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 46% | - |
| Sets won | 43% | - |
| Games won | 49% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Shapovalov | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Shapovalov | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 2 |
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