Denis Shapovalov vs Marcos GironPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

π¨π¦Denis Shapovalov
#42 Β· 27 yrs Β· L
5 meetings Β· sets 4β8

πΊπΈMarcos Giron
#88 Β· 33 yrs Β· R
6Denis Shapovalov and Marcos Giron have met 5 times since 2024; Marcos Giron leads 3β2. Their first meeting came at US Men's Clay Court Championship - Houston in 2024 on clay. On hard courts Shapovalov leads 2β1. On clay courts Giron leads 2β0. Across all meetings Shapovalov has taken 4 sets to Giron's 8. Their most recent meeting: Denis Shapovalov won at Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches Β· Last 12 months
| Indicator | Shapovalov | Giron | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Denis Shapovalov | Marcos Giron | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 45% | 10/22 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Wins a set when losing | 35% | 6/17 | 63% | 17/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 18/39 | 53% | 26/49 |
| Covers β1.5 sets as favorite | 35% | 9/26 | 34% | 11/32 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 69% | 9/13 | 82% | 14/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 62% | 8/13 | 47% | 14/30 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 18/22 | 65% | 17/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 45% | 10/22 | 50% | 13/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Shapovalov 0, Giron 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Shapovalov
π₯ Big Hitter
Giron
π― Baseliner
Matchup analysis
π₯ Big Hitter vs π― Baseliner is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 1,249 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Oct 21, 2025
Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel
H Hard Β· 1st Round
Apr 7, 2025
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay Β· 1st Round
Feb 27, 2025
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard Β· Quarterfinals
Jan 8, 2025
Adelaide International - Adelaide
H Hard Β· 2nd Round
Apr 2, 2024
US Men's Clay Court Championship - Houston
C Clay Β· 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets Β· Last 90 days
| Outcome | Shapovalov | Giron | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Denis Shapovalov | Marcos Giron | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 6/6 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 83% | 5/6 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 12/17 | 67% | 4/6 |
| 10 or more | 41% | 7/17 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 15 or more | 6% | 1/17 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/6 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches Β· Last 90 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Giron |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12β5 | 3β7 |
| Avg odds | 2.15 | 1.70 |
| ROI % | +12.3% | -63.9% |
| Units P/L | +2.09u | -6.39u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Giron |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 2 |
| Distance | 2,080 mi Β· 3,347 km | 1,092 mi Β· 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN β JPN | JPN β CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced Β· Last 12 months
Shapovalov has a higher win rate against shared opponents (44% vs Giron's 33%).
| Opponent | Shapovalov | Giron |
|---|---|---|
| Sho Shimabukuro | W 75 61 | W 63 75 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | L 76 36 36 | L 57 64 26 |
| Ben Shelton | L 67 76 36 46 | L 76 46 67 |
| Rinky Hijikata | W 26 63 62 | L 57 76 16 |
| Marin Cilic | L 76 46 57 | L 57 46 |
| Mariano Navone | L 46 26 | W 46 75 63 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 64 64 | W 62 36 64 |
| Casper Ruud | L 36 46 | L 64 67 46 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 57 64 63 | L 76 16 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo Β· Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo Β· 2nd Round
Oct 3
Sho Shimabukuro
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo Β· 1st Round
Oct 1
Hubert Hurkacz
Chengdu Open - Chengdu Β· Semifinals
Sep 28
Adrian Mannarino
Chengdu Open - Chengdu Β· Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Vit Kopriva
Chengdu Open - Chengdu Β· 2nd Round
Sep 25
Tallon Griekspoor
Chengdu Open - Chengdu Β· 1st Round
Sep 24
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York Β· 3rd Round
Sep 5
Sebastian Baez
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai Β· 1st Round
Oct 8
Jaume Munar
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo Β· 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Ignacio Buse
U.S. Open - New York Β· 1st Round
Sep 2
Dhakshineswar Suresh
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem Β· 1st Round
Aug 24
Henrique Rocha
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati Β· 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 12
Hubert Hurkacz
National Bank Open - Montreal Β· 1st Round
Aug 4
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
National Bank Open - Montreal Β· 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 1
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington Β· 1st Round
Jul 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won Β· Last 12 months Β· 45β55 matches
| Metric | Shapovalov | Giron |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 44% |
| Sets won | 52% | 48% |
| Games won | 51% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Shapovalov | Giron |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Shapovalov | Giron |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 2 |
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