Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Denis Shapovalov and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 10 times since 2017; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 8–2. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Busta leads 6–1. On grass courts Busta leads 2–0. Busta has won the last 4 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Shapovalov leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Shapovalov has taken 7 sets to Busta's 16. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Wimbledon (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Shapovalov | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Denis Shapovalov | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 45% | 10/22 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 35% | 6/17 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 18/39 | 46% | 24/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 35% | 9/26 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 69% | 9/13 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 62% | 8/13 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 18/22 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 45% | 10/22 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 6 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Shapovalov 2, Carreno Busta 4).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Shapovalov
💥 Big Hitter
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 1,017 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
10 career meetings, newest first
Jun 30, 2026
Wimbledon
G Grass · Round of 128
Jun 29, 2026
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Feb 24, 2026
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 1st Round
Nov 2, 2022
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 9, 2022
ATP Cup - Sydney
H Hard · Final
Sep 8, 2020
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Oct 12, 2019
Vienna
H Hard · Round of 32
Sep 24, 2019
Chengdu
H Hard · Semifinals
May 5, 2019
ATP Masters 1000 Rome
C Clay · Round of 64
Sep 4, 2017
US Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Shapovalov | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Denis Shapovalov | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 12/17 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 10 or more | 41% | 7/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 6% | 1/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–5 | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.15 | 2.47 |
| ROI % | +12.3% | -9.8% |
| Units P/L | +2.09u | -1.18u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 6 |
| Distance | 2,080 mi · 3,347 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Shapovalov has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Busta's 40%).
| Opponent | Shapovalov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 75 36 64 | W 46 76 64 |
| Mariano Navone | L 46 26 | W 46 75 63 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 67 63 62 | W 63 64 |
| Vit Kopriva | W 62 63 | L 36 61 46 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | W 64 76 | L 46 46 |
| Luca Van Assche | W 60 64 76 | L 36 64 26 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | W 64 46 64 61 | W 46 63 76 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 57 64 57 | L 63 36 61 36 46 |
| Valentin Royer | W 76 62 | L 61 57 26 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 57 64 63 | L 36 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Sho Shimabukuro
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Hubert Hurkacz
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Semifinals
Sep 28
Adrian Mannarino
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Vit Kopriva
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Tallon Griekspoor
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–58 matches
| Metric | Shapovalov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 62% |
| Sets won | 52% | 58% |
| Games won | 51% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Shapovalov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 4 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Cup | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Shapovalov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 6 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 2 |
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