Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Denis Shapovalov and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 9 times since 2017; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 7–2. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Busta leads 6–1. Busta has won the last 3 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Shapovalov leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Shapovalov has taken 7 sets to Busta's 16. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Wimbledon (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Shapovalov | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Denis Shapovalov | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 44% | 8/18 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 28% | 5/18 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 42% | 15/36 | 45% | 27/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 30% | 7/23 | 47% | 18/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 62% | 8/13 | 57% | 12/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 60% | 6/10 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 15/18 | 89% | 31/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 44% | 8/18 | 66% | 23/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 6 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Shapovalov 2, Carreno Busta 4).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Shapovalov
💥 Big Hitter
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 554 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
9 career meetings, newest first
Jun 30, 2026
Wimbledon
G Grass · Round of 128
Feb 24, 2026
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 1st Round
Nov 2, 2022
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 9, 2022
ATP Cup - Sydney
H Hard · Final
Sep 8, 2020
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Oct 12, 2019
Vienna
H Hard · Round of 32
Sep 24, 2019
Chengdu
H Hard · Semifinals
May 5, 2019
ATP Masters 1000 Rome
C Clay · Round of 64
Sep 4, 2017
US Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Shapovalov | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Denis Shapovalov | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 80% | 8/10 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 70% | 7/10 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–5 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.01 | 2.29 |
| ROI % | -7.8% | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | -0.86u | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,847 mi · 2,972 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | MEX → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Shapovalov has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Busta's 33%).
| Opponent | Shapovalov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Jodar | L 57 64 57 | L 63 36 61 36 46 |
| Valentin Royer | W 76 62 | L 61 57 26 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 46 46 | W 63 76 63 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 57 64 63 | L 36 36 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | W 64 36 62 | L 46 46 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 57 36 | W 63 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rafael Jodar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Adrian Mannarino
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Arthur Gea
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Final
Aug 1
Cameron Norrie
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Semifinals
Jul 31
Dalibor Svrcina
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Rinky Hijikata
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 1st Round
Jul 29
Pablo Carreno Busta
Wimbledon · Round of 128
Jun 30
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–65 matches
| Metric | Shapovalov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 46% | 65% |
| Sets won | 43% | 60% |
| Games won | 49% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Shapovalov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 3 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Cup | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Shapovalov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 6 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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