Denis Shapovalov and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 8 times since 2017; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 6–2. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships (2026).
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Shapovalov
💥 Big Hitter
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 302 matches in our dataset — a stylistic lean toward Denis Shapovalov.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.
8 career meetings, newest first
Feb 24, 2026
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
H Hard · Round of 32
Nov 2, 2022
ATP Masters 1000 Paris
H Hard · Round of 32
Jan 9, 2022
ATP Cup
H Hard · Finals
Sep 9, 2020
US Open
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Oct 12, 2019
Vienna
H Hard · Round of 32
Sep 24, 2019
Chengdu
H Hard · Semifinals
May 5, 2019
ATP Masters 1000 Rome
C Clay · Round of 64
Sep 4, 2017
US Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Shapovalov | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Denis Shapovalov | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 60% | 6/10 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 5 or more | 30% | 3/10 | 25% | 3/12 |
| 10 or more | 10% | 1/10 | 25% | 3/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/12 |
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–6 | 5–3 |
| Avg odds | 2.21 | 2.03 |
| ROI % | -38.1% | +10.4% |
| Units P/L | -3.43u | +0.83u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 8 shared opponents, both Shapovalov and Busta posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Shapovalov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Jodar | W 61 62 | L 64 64 16 26 26 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 46 46 | W 63 76 63 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 57 64 63 | L 36 36 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 64 64 60 | W 46 76 62 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | W 64 36 62 | L 46 46 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 57 36 | W 63 62 |
| Luca Nardi | L 76 36 46 | W 67 64 76 |
| Ben Shelton | L 64 46 67 | L 46 26 46 |
Last five matches per player
Alex de Minaur
HSBC Championships · Round of 16
Jun 17
Marin Cilic
Libema Open · Round of 32
Jun 10
Jack Pinnington Jones
HSBC Championships · Round of 32
Jun 9
Jaime Faria
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Mariano Navone
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 128
May 7
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Mutua Madrid Open · Round of 64
Apr 25
Alex Molcan
BMW Open by Bitpanda · Quarterfinals
Apr 17
Tallon Griekspoor
BMW Open by Bitpanda · Round of 32
Apr 14
Rafael Jodar
Roland Garros · Round of 16
May 31
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Roland Garros · Round of 32
May 29
Thanasi Kokkinakis
Roland Garros · Round of 64
May 27
Jiri Lehecka
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Sebastian Baez
Copa Faulconbridge · Round of 16
May 14
Francisco Comesana
Copa Faulconbridge · Round of 32
May 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 128
May 6
Martin Damm
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · 1st Round Qualifying
May 4
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–57 matches
| Metric | Shapovalov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 49% | 67% |
| Sets won | 48% | 60% |
| Games won | 50% | 53% |
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Shapovalov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Shapovalov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 6 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
