Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo BerrettiniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Daniil Medvedev and Matteo Berrettini have met 4 times since 2018; Daniil Medvedev leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Medvedev leads 3–0. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Medvedev leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Medvedev has taken 6 sets to Berrettini's 4. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Berrettini won at Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Medvedev | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniil Medvedev | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 28/41 | 67% | 14/21 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 7/15 | 32% | 6/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 33% | 13/40 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 51% | 25/49 | 38% | 11/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 2/4 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 39% | 9/23 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 34/36 | 89% | 16/18 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 28/36 | 78% | 14/18 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Medvedev 1, Berrettini 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Berrettini
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,511 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Apr 8, 2026
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jan 6, 2022
ATP Cup - Sydney
H Hard · Round Robin
Feb 7, 2021
ATP Cup - Melbourne
H Hard · Final
Mar 10, 2018
ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells
H Hard · Round of 64
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Medvedev | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daniil Medvedev | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 9/9 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 9/9 |
| 5 or more | 88% | 15/17 | 78% | 7/9 |
| 10 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 56% | 5/9 |
| 15 or more | 24% | 4/17 | 33% | 3/9 |
| 20 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 11% | 1/9 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.32 | 1.82 |
| ROI % | -15.1% | -25.1% |
| Units P/L | -2.42u | -2.26u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 9 | 4 |
| Distance | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 9 shared opponents, both Medvedev and Berrettini posted a 56% win rate.
| Opponent | Medvedev | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nakashima | L 76 67 16 | L 67 57 |
| Pablo Carreno Busta | W 64 62 | W 63 64 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 64 64 64 | W 64 64 64 |
| Stan Wawrinka | W 62 63 | W 76 76 60 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 62 63 | W 67 75 61 62 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 62 36 67 | L 36 46 |
| Ugo Humbert | L 67 63 36 | L 67 36 |
| Learner Tien | L 46 06 36 | L 75 26 36 |
| Quentin Halys | W 67 63 64 62 | W 62 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jan-Lennard Struff
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Francisco Cerundolo
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Jan-Lennard Struff
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Pablo Carreno Busta
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Roman Safiullin
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Brandon Nakashima
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Mariano Navone
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Stan Wawrinka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Jiri Lehecka
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Titouan Droguet
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–68 matches
| Metric | Medvedev | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 72% | 58% |
| Sets won | 66% | 57% |
| Games won | 56% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Medvedev | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Cup | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Medvedev | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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