Alex de Minaur vs Matteo BerrettiniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Matteo Berrettini have met 6 times since 2017; they are level 3–3. Their first meeting came at Segovia in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 3–1. On grass courts Berrettini leads 2–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 6 sets to Berrettini's 7. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Erste Bank Open - Vienna (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 67% | 14/21 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 32% | 6/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 33% | 13/40 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 38% | 11/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 89% | 16/18 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 78% | 14/18 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 3, Berrettini 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Berrettini
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Matteo Berrettini.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Oct 24, 2025
Erste Bank Open - Vienna
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 25, 2025
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 4th Round
Jul 7, 2023
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Jan 2, 2022
ATP Cup - Sydney
H Hard · Round Robin
Jun 19, 2021
cinch Championships - London
G Grass · Semifinals
Aug 5, 2017
Segovia
H Hard · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 9/9 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 100% | 9/9 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 78% | 7/9 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 56% | 5/9 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 33% | 3/9 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 11% | 1/9 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 1.82 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | -25.1% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | -2.26u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 4 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Berrettini's 60%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nakashima | L 67 46 | L 67 57 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W | L 64 36 46 |
| Quentin Halys | W 36 76 75 | W 62 64 |
| Mariano Navone | W 76 62 | L 63 36 46 67 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 46 64 | W 16 76 64 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 26 76 119 | L 36 46 |
| Stan Wawrinka | W 64 62 | W 76 76 60 |
| Arthur Fils | L 36 46 | W 64 75 36 63 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 75 67 16 | W 76 67 64 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 62 62 | W 46 75 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Brandon Nakashima
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Mariano Navone
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Stan Wawrinka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Jiri Lehecka
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Titouan Droguet
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 58% |
| Sets won | 63% | 57% |
| Games won | 54% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Cup | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 2 |
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