Alex de Minaur vs Matteo BerrettiniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Matteo Berrettini have met 6 times since 2017; they are level 3–3. Their first meeting came at Segovia in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 3–1. On grass courts Berrettini leads 2–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 6 sets to Berrettini's 7. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Erste Bank Open - Vienna (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 75% | 15/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 30% | 6/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 28% | 11/40 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 38% | 11/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 50% | 9/18 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 89% | 17/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 79% | 15/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 3, Berrettini 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Berrettini
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 2,280 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Matteo Berrettini.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Oct 24, 2025
Erste Bank Open - Vienna
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 25, 2025
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 4th Round
Jul 7, 2023
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Jan 2, 2022
ATP Cup - Sydney
H Hard · Round Robin
Jun 19, 2021
cinch Championships - London
G Grass · Semifinals
Aug 5, 2017
Segovia
H Hard · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 75% | 6/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 38% | 3/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 38% | 3/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 25% | 2/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 4–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 1.85 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | +2.9% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | +0.20u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Berrettini has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Minaur's 60%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Arthur Fils | L 36 46 | W 64 75 36 63 |
| Quentin Halys | W 16 63 76 | W 62 64 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 75 67 16 | W 76 67 64 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 62 62 | W 46 75 75 |
| Stan Wawrinka | W 64 62 | W 67 76 76 76 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | L 64 67 46 | L 57 25 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 63 36 76 | W 64 64 64 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | W 64 62 | L 67 46 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 64 46 64 | L 64 36 46 |
| Patrick Kypson | L 16 76 67 | W 64 67 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Jiri Lehecka
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Titouan Droguet
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Mariano Navone
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 3
Grigor Dimitrov
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Arthur Fils
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Stan Wawrinka
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Matteo Arnaldi
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
French Open - Paris · 4th Round
Jun 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 48–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 56% |
| Sets won | 62% | 56% |
| Games won | 54% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Cup | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 2 |
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