Daniil Medvedev vs Lorenzo MusettiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Daniil Medvedev and Lorenzo Musetti have met 3 times since 2023; Daniil Medvedev leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at National Bank Open - Toronto in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Medvedev leads 2–0. Across all meetings Medvedev has taken 4 sets to Musetti's 2. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Musetti won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Medvedev | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniil Medvedev | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 29/41 | 72% | 21/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 53% | 9/17 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 21/58 | 26% | 12/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 49% | 25/51 | 59% | 20/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 3/5 | 30% | 3/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 9/24 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 35/39 | 90% | 26/29 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 29/39 | 72% | 21/29 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Medvedev 2, Musetti 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Musetti
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 56% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 179 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Lorenzo Musetti.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
May 13, 2025
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 4th Round
Aug 16, 2023
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 10, 2023
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Medvedev | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daniil Medvedev | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 77% | 10/13 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 54% | 7/13 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 15% | 2/13 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–6 | 5–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.26 | 1.62 |
| ROI % | -39.7% | -18.1% |
| Units P/L | -4.76u | -1.45u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 7 |
| Distance | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | USA → CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Musetti has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Medvedev's 40%).
| Opponent | Medvedev | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Frances Tiafoe | L 36 26 | L 67 57 |
| Daniel Altmaier | L 46 76 46 | W 64 62 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 64 | W 67 62 64 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 26 75 46 | L 16 46 26 |
| Martin Landaluce | W 16 64 75 | W 75 62 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | L 06 64 57 | W 76 64 |
| Flavio Cobolli | L 36 75 46 | W 63 62 20 |
| Corentin Moutet | L 67 46 | W 63 64 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | W 63 76 | L 46 16 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 64 62 | L 36 62 67 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Martin Damm
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Brandon Nakashima
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Marco Trungelliti
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Botic van de Zandschulp
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Jan-Lennard Struff
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Daniel Merida
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Marin Cilic
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Daniel Altmaier
Terra Wortmann Open - Halle · Quarterfinals
Jun 19
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Nicolas Mejia
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Aleksandar Vukic
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–66 matches
| Metric | Medvedev | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 70% | 65% |
| Sets won | 65% | 62% |
| Games won | 55% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Medvedev | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Medvedev | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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