Daniil Medvedev vs Lorenzo MusettiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Daniil Medvedev and Lorenzo Musetti have met 3 times since 2023; Daniil Medvedev leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at National Bank Open - Toronto in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Medvedev leads 2–0. Across all meetings Medvedev has taken 4 sets to Musetti's 2. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Musetti won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Medvedev | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniil Medvedev | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 28/41 | 73% | 16/22 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 7/15 | 25% | 4/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 26% | 10/38 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 51% | 25/49 | 56% | 15/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 2/4 | 33% | 3/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 39% | 9/23 | 38% | 5/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 34/36 | 86% | 19/22 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 28/36 | 73% | 16/22 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Medvedev 2, Musetti 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Musetti
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 1,618 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Lorenzo Musetti.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
May 13, 2025
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 4th Round
Aug 16, 2023
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 10, 2023
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Medvedev | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daniil Medvedev | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 73% | 8/11 |
| 5 or more | 88% | 15/17 | 46% | 5/11 |
| 10 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 15 or more | 24% | 4/17 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 20 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 6–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.32 | 1.50 |
| ROI % | -15.1% | -28.7% |
| Units P/L | -2.42u | -3.16u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 9 | 1 |
| Distance | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Medvedev and Musetti posted a 60% win rate.
| Opponent | Medvedev | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic | L | L |
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 76 63 | W 76 64 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 75 64 | W 67 75 64 |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 67 46 67 | L 67 57 |
| Daniel Altmaier | L 46 76 46 | W 64 62 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 64 | W 67 62 64 |
| Martin Landaluce | W 16 64 75 | W 75 62 |
| Corentin Moutet | L 67 46 | W 63 64 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | W 63 76 | L 46 16 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 62 63 | L 57 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jan-Lennard Struff
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Francisco Cerundolo
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Jan-Lennard Struff
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Pablo Carreno Busta
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Roman Safiullin
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Yi Zhou
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Dane Sweeny
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Arthur Fery
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 43–68 matches
| Metric | Medvedev | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 72% | 60% |
| Sets won | 66% | 59% |
| Games won | 56% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Medvedev | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Medvedev | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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