Carlos Alcaraz vs Rafael NadalPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Carlos Alcaraz and Rafael Nadal have met 4 times since 2021; Rafael Nadal leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Madrid in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Nadal leads 2–1. Across all meetings Alcaraz has taken 3 sets to Nadal's 7. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Alcaraz | Nadal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Carlos Alcaraz | Rafael Nadal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 80% | 20/25 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 2/6 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 7/31 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 20/29 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 0% | 0/2 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 40% | 4/10 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 95% | 21/22 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 91% | 20/22 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alcaraz 0, Nadal 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Nadal
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
Both Carlos Alcaraz and Rafael Nadal are 👑 The Complete Package types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 702 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
May 6, 2022
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Mar 19, 2022
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Semifinals
May 5, 2021
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
May 3, 2021
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid
C Clay · Round of 32
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–0 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.13 | - |
| ROI % | +12.5% | - |
| Units P/L | +0.25u | - |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 2 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jaime Faria
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Roman Safiullin
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Otto Virtanen
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona · 1st Round
Apr 14
Jannik Sinner
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · Final
Apr 12
Valentin Vacherot
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · Semifinals
Apr 11
Alexander Bublik
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · 3rd Round
Apr 9
Sebastian Baez
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · 2nd Round
Apr 7
Botic van de Zandschulp
Davis Cup, World Group, QF, NED-ESP 2-1 · Rubber 1
Nov 19
Novak Djokovic
Olympics - Paris · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Marton Fucsovics
Olympics - Paris · 1st Round
Jul 28
Nuno Borges
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 21
Duje Ajdukovic
Nordea Open - Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 20
Mariano Navone
Nordea Open - Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 19
Cameron Norrie
Nordea Open - Bastad · 2nd Round
Jul 18
Leo Borg
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–42 matches
| Metric | Alcaraz | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 86% | - |
| Sets won | 79% | - |
| Games won | 60% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alcaraz | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 3 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alcaraz | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 2 |
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