Brandon Nakashima vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Brandon Nakashima and Sebastian Baez have met 2 times since 2024; Brandon Nakashima leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon - London in 2024 on grass. Nakashima has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Nakashima has taken 6 sets to Baez's 0. Their most recent meeting: Brandon Nakashima won at U.S. Open - New York (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakashima | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Brandon Nakashima | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 24/32 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 8/20 | 22% | 6/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 16/52 | 23% | 14/61 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 56% | 19/34 | 61% | 17/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 12/16 | 52% | 15/29 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 52% | 15/29 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 29/34 | 83% | 29/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 71% | 24/34 | 74% | 26/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 54% vs 🎾 All-Court across 703 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Brandon Nakashima.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the all-court's tactical versatility.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Aug 31, 2026
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Jul 1, 2024
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakashima | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Brandon Nakashima | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 65% | 13/20 |
| 3 or more | 95% | 20/21 | 30% | 6/20 |
| 5 or more | 91% | 19/21 | 15% | 3/20 |
| 10 or more | 52% | 11/21 | 0% | 0/20 |
| 15 or more | 10% | 2/21 | 0% | 0/20 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/21 | 0% | 0/20 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–6 | 9–9 |
| Avg odds | 1.84 | 2.40 |
| ROI % | +27.8% | -11.4% |
| Units P/L | +5.84u | -2.05u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 1,611 mi · 2,592 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nakashima has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Baez's 30%).
| Opponent | Nakashima | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Bublik | L 76 36 67 | L 16 26 |
| Valentin Vacherot | W 26 62 63 | L 46 67 |
| Marcos Giron | L 67 16 | W 16 63 64 |
| Jakub Mensik | W 61 36 107 | L 36 67 |
| Alex Michelsen | L 36 46 46 | L 57 36 |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | W 63 75 | L |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 46 63 | W 46 75 64 |
| Daniil Medvedev | W 67 76 61 | L 46 06 |
| Ben Shelton | L 36 67 | W 75 63 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 62 63 | L 46 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alexander Bublik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Matteo Berrettini
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Ugo Humbert
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jakub Mensik
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sebastian Baez
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Marcos Giron
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Juncheng Shang
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jenson Brooksby
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 23
Brandon Nakashima
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 60–66 matches
| Metric | Nakashima | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 60% | 53% |
| Sets won | 59% | 52% |
| Games won | 53% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakashima | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakashima | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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