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Head-to-Head

Brandon Nakashima vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

Brandon Nakashima

🇺🇸Brandon Nakashima

#17 · 25 yrs · R

3
1–0

1 meeting · sets 3–0

Sebastian Baez

🇦🇷Sebastian Baez

#50 · 25 yrs · R

Brandon Nakashima and Sebastian Baez have met 1 time since 2024; Brandon Nakashima leads 1–0. Across all meetings Nakashima has taken 3 sets to Baez's 0. Their most recent meeting: Brandon Nakashima won at Wimbledon - London (2024).

Upcoming match

Tournament
U.S. Open - New York
Level
Grand Slam
Round
1st Round
Surface
Hard
Date & time
August 31 · 2:00 PM ET

Book odds

Brandon Nakashima1.271.14
Sebastian Baez3.715.60

Set spread

Nakashima -1.51.33
Baez +1.53.13

Game spread

Nakashima -71.91
Baez +71.80
NakashimaHard-court specialist (67%)BaezClay-court specialist (58%)

Record at prices like this

Brandon Nakashima1.1483% fairWon 91%

Priced around 1.14 or shorter, Brandon Nakashima has won 29 of 32 matches, 91% against a fair-price expectation of 87%.

Sebastian Baez5.6017% fairWon 7%

Priced around 5.60 or longer, Sebastian Baez has won 1 of 15 matches, 7% against a fair-price expectation of 11%.

Book prices only, with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Sample sizes below ten are not shown.

Brandon Nakashima and Sebastian Baez meet next at the U.S. Open - New York on August 31 on hard.

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Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

IndicatorNakashimaBaez
Wins in straight sets74%76%
Wins a set when losing33%19%
Goes to a deciding set29%22%
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite54%63%
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog69%52%
Tiebreak sets won50%64%
Wins after taking set 188%85%
Wins 2-0 after taking set 174%76%

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Nakashima

🤖 Servebot

High ace rateDominant serviceWeaker returnBig first serve
vs

Baez

🎾 All-Court

Tactical versatilityNet approach abilitySurface adaptabilityWell-rounded game

Matchup analysis

The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🎾 All-Court across 752 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Brandon Nakashima.

Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the all-court's tactical versatility.

Previous meetings

1 career meeting, newest first

Jul 1, 2024

Wimbledon - London

G Grass · 1st Round

62
63
64
Nakashima

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

OutcomeNakashimaBaez
1 or more100%76%
3 or more100%29%
5 or more91%10%
10 or more43%0%
15 or more14%0%
20 or more10%0%

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

MetricNakashimaBaez
W-L16–514–6
Avg odds1.871.90
ROI %+38.6%+8.8%
Units P/L+8.10u+1.76u

Travel

Last 30 days

MetricNakashimaBaez
Countries23
Events34
Matches129
Distance1,200 mi · 1,932 km3,066 mi · 4,934 km
RouteUSA → CAN → USACAN → USA → MEX → USA

Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Nakashima has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Baez's 50%).

OpponentNakashimaBaez
Taylor Fritz
W
76
46
63
W
46
75
64
Daniil Medvedev
W
67
76
61
L
46
06
Ben Shelton
L
36
67
W
75
63
Luciano Darderi
W
62
63
L
46
36
Arthur Rinderknech
W
76
57
75
W
76
26
64
Titouan Droguet
W
46
62
75
L
46
46
Mattia Bellucci
W
63
64
W
75
63
Jakub Mensik
W
76
36
64
L
36
67
Jan-Lennard Struff
L
64
67
67
76
67
L
16
67
64
62
57
Ignacio Buse
W
62
62
W
64
63

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Nakashima
LWWWWLWW
L

Frances Tiafoe

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals

57
36

Aug 23

W

Taylor Fritz

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals

769
46
63

Aug 21

W

Nuno Borges

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round

63
657
63

Aug 20

W

Daniil Medvedev

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round

637
764
61

Aug 18

W

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

62
75

Aug 16

L

Ben Shelton

National Bank Open - Montreal · Final

36
647

Aug 14

W

Rafael Jodar

National Bank Open - Montreal · Semifinals

763
64

Aug 13

W

Luciano Darderi

National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals

62
63

Aug 11

Baez
WLWWWLWL
W

Hugo Grenier

Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round

75
762

Aug 26

L

Hubert Hurkacz

Cancun Challenger · Final

64
06
36

Aug 24

W

Lloyd Harris

Cancun Challenger · Semifinals

64
64

Aug 23

W

Chak Pong Marco Lam

Cancun Challenger · Quarterfinals

64
60

Aug 22

W

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round

64
63

Aug 21

L

Learner Tien

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

36
647

Aug 16

W

Grigor Dimitrov

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round

16
63
64

Aug 14

L

Zizou Bergs

National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round

63
36
26

Aug 5

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 61–64 matches

MetricNakashimaBaez
Matches won61%55%
Sets won59%53%
Games won53%50%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

StageNakashimaBaez
Grand Slam10

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

SurfaceNakashimaBaez
Grass10

Brandon Nakashima vs Sebastian Baez FAQ

Brandon Nakashima leads the head-to-head 1–0 over 1 meetings.