Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo BerrettiniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Brandon Nakashima and Matteo Berrettini have met 1 time since 2022; Matteo Berrettini leads 1–0. Across all meetings Nakashima has taken 1 sets to Berrettini's 3. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Berrettini won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2022).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
- Level
- ATP Masters 1000
- Round
- 2nd Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 9 · 1:50 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 2.33 or longer, Matteo Berrettini has won 18 of 33 (55%). The price implied 36%, so Matteo Berrettini has beaten it by 19 points.
At 1.60 or shorter, Brandon Nakashima has won 119 of 176 (68%). That is level with the 67% the price implied.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Matteo Berrettini and Brandon Nakashima meet in the second round of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on October 9 on hard court. Berrettini, ranked 46th, advances after a first-round victory and owns a one-match winning streak. Nakashima, ranked 19th, has lost his last match and played only twice in the past two weeks.
The two have met once, with Berrettini winning that encounter. On hard court, Nakashima has compiled a 14-6 record (70%), while Berrettini stands at 12-8 (60%). Berrettini has won 3 of his last 5 matches but 5 of 10 overall; Nakashima has won 2 of 5 but 6 of 10 in a broader sample. Recent common opponents have split results unevenly: Nakashima defeated Alex de Minaur and Ignacio Buse while Berrettini lost to both, though Berrettini beat Arthur Fils where Nakashima fell.
Both players build their games around the serve. Berrettini uses his delivery as a primary offensive tool and attacks early in points; Nakashima relies on similar serving patterns and has logged more hard court time recently. The match will pivot on execution under pressure and the ability to generate return opportunities against opponents built for flat, heavy deliveries.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakashima | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Brandon Nakashima | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 23/31 | 67% | 14/21 |
| Wins a set when losing | 37% | 7/19 | 33% | 6/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 15/50 | 33% | 13/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 56% | 18/32 | 38% | 11/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 12/16 | 67% | 6/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 13/26 | 53% | 10/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 28/32 | 89% | 16/18 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 72% | 23/32 | 78% | 14/18 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Berrettini
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
Both Brandon Nakashima and Matteo Berrettini are 🤖 Servebot types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 6,498 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jan 17, 2022
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakashima | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Brandon Nakashima | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 19/19 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 95% | 18/19 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 5 or more | 90% | 17/19 | 75% | 6/8 |
| 10 or more | 53% | 10/19 | 50% | 4/8 |
| 15 or more | 11% | 2/19 | 38% | 3/8 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/19 | 13% | 1/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 4–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.86 | 1.76 |
| ROI % | +32.9% | -15.8% |
| Units P/L | +6.25u | -1.26u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nakashima has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Berrettini's 70%).
| Opponent | Nakashima | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 62 75 | W 67 61 64 |
| Ugo Humbert | L 36 26 | L 67 36 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 76 64 | W 16 76 64 |
| Daniil Medvedev | W 67 76 61 | W 60 60 |
| Titouan Droguet | W 46 62 75 | W 36 61 64 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 76 57 75 | W 64 64 64 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 76 64 | L 16 67 |
| Arthur Fils | L 26 36 | W 64 75 36 63 |
| Ignacio Buse | W 62 62 | L 67 76 46 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 63 63 | W 67 75 61 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Ugo Humbert
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jakub Mensik
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sebastian Baez
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Nuno Borges
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Daniil Medvedev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Mariano Navone
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Stan Wawrinka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Jiri Lehecka
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Titouan Droguet
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Mariano Navone
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 3
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–58 matches
| Metric | Nakashima | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 60% | 59% |
| Sets won | 59% | 57% |
| Games won | 53% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakashima | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakashima | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |