Brandon Nakashima vs Lorenzo MusettiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Brandon Nakashima and Lorenzo Musetti have met 3 times since 2024; Lorenzo Musetti leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at cinch Championships - London in 2024 on grass. Across all meetings Nakashima has taken 4 sets to Musetti's 5. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Musetti won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakashima | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Brandon Nakashima | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 25/34 | 72% | 21/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 7/21 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 29% | 16/55 | 26% | 12/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 54% | 20/37 | 59% | 20/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 69% | 11/16 | 30% | 3/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 15/30 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 90% | 26/29 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 72% | 21/29 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakashima 0, Musetti 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Musetti
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 🎯 Baseliner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 1,749 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
May 11, 2025
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
Aug 30, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jun 20, 2024
cinch Championships - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakashima | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Brandon Nakashima | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 91% | 19/21 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 43% | 9/21 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 14% | 3/21 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 10% | 2/21 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 16–5 | 5–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.87 | 1.62 |
| ROI % | +38.6% | -18.1% |
| Units P/L | +8.10u | -1.45u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 13 | 7 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | USA → CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nakashima has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Musetti's 60%).
| Opponent | Nakashima | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Frances Tiafoe | L 57 36 | L 67 57 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 46 63 | W 62 75 64 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 62 61 | W 64 62 |
| Rafael Jodar | W 76 64 | L 46 36 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 62 63 | W 75 76 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 76 64 | W 75 36 75 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 64 | W 67 62 64 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | L 76 36 46 | W 76 64 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 63 63 | L 57 16 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | L 75 16 67 67 | L 46 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Nuno Borges
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Daniil Medvedev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ben Shelton
National Bank Open - Montreal · Final
Aug 14
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · Semifinals
Aug 13
Luciano Darderi
National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals
Aug 11
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Nicolas Mejia
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Aleksandar Vukic
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–61 matches
| Metric | Nakashima | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 65% |
| Sets won | 59% | 62% |
| Games won | 53% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakashima | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakashima | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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