Brandon Nakashima vs Lorenzo MusettiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Brandon Nakashima and Lorenzo Musetti have met 3 times since 2024; Lorenzo Musetti leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at cinch Championships - London in 2024 on grass. Across all meetings Nakashima has taken 4 sets to Musetti's 5. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Musetti won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakashima | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Brandon Nakashima | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 24/32 | 73% | 16/22 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 8/20 | 25% | 4/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 16/52 | 26% | 10/38 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 56% | 19/34 | 56% | 15/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 12/16 | 33% | 3/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 52% | 15/29 | 38% | 5/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 29/34 | 86% | 19/22 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 71% | 24/34 | 73% | 16/22 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakashima 0, Musetti 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Musetti
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
May 11, 2025
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
Aug 30, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jun 20, 2024
cinch Championships - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakashima | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Brandon Nakashima | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 3 or more | 95% | 20/21 | 73% | 8/11 |
| 5 or more | 91% | 19/21 | 46% | 5/11 |
| 10 or more | 52% | 11/21 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 15 or more | 10% | 2/21 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/21 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–6 | 6–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.84 | 1.50 |
| ROI % | +27.8% | -28.7% |
| Units P/L | +5.84u | -3.16u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 4 | 1 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Nakashima and Musetti posted a 60% win rate.
| Opponent | Nakashima | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Bublik | L 76 36 67 | L 67 36 |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 57 36 | L 67 57 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 46 63 | W 62 75 64 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 62 61 | W 64 62 |
| Rafael Jodar | W 76 64 | L 46 36 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 76 64 | W 75 36 75 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 64 | W 67 62 64 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | L 76 36 46 | W 76 64 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 63 63 | L 57 16 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | L 67 67 | W 64 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alexander Bublik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Matteo Berrettini
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Ugo Humbert
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jakub Mensik
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sebastian Baez
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Yi Zhou
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Dane Sweeny
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Arthur Fery
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 43–60 matches
| Metric | Nakashima | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 60% | 60% |
| Sets won | 59% | 59% |
| Games won | 53% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakashima | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakashima | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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