Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina MuchovaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 7–6
🇨🇿Karolina Muchova
#7 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
7wAryna Sabalenka and Karolina Muchova have met 5 times since 2019; Karolina Muchova leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Zhuhai in 2019 on hard. On hard courts they are level 2–2. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 7 sets to Muchova's 6. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Brisbane International - Brisbane (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Muchova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Karolina Muchova | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 63% | 25/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 38% | 5/13 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 38% | 20/53 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 69% | 11/16 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 67% | 6/9 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 91% | 31/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 74% | 25/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 2, Muchova 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Muchova
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Aryna Sabalenka and Karolina Muchova are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jan 10, 2026
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · Semifinals
Oct 4, 2024
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 19, 2023
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · Semifinals
Jun 8, 2023
French Open - Paris
C Clay · Semifinals
Oct 27, 2019
Zhuhai
H Hard · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Muchova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Karolina Muchova | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 8–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 1.51 |
| ROI % | -23.4% | +16.3% |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | +1.63u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 5 | — |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | — |
| Route | CAN → POL | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Sabalenka and Muchova posted a 60% win rate.
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 67 64 46 | W 64 75 |
| Shuai Zhang | W 63 64 | W 63 62 |
| Linda Noskova | W 63 64 | L 26 75 36 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | W 62 16 76 |
| Naomi Osaka | L 26 67 | W 76 64 |
| Barbora Krejcikova | W 62 63 | W 75 57 63 |
| Madison Keys | W 63 63 | L 46 57 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 63 57 06 | L 62 16 26 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 62 36 57 | W 62 63 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 76 76 | L 36 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · Final
Jul 11
Coco Gauff
Wimbledon - London · Semifinals
Jul 9
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Barbora Krejcikova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Shuai Zhang
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Anastasia Zakharova
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Elena Gabriela Ruse
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg · Semifinals
Jun 26
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 53–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 75% |
| Sets won | 79% | 67% |
| Games won | 59% | 55% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA Finals | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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