Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina MuchovaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 7–6
🇨🇿Karolina Muchova
#7 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Karolina Muchova have met 5 times since 2019; Karolina Muchova leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Zhuhai in 2019 on hard. On hard courts they are level 2–2. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 7 sets to Muchova's 6. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Brisbane International - Brisbane (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Muchova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Karolina Muchova | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 66% | 27/41 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 31% | 4/13 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 33% | 18/54 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 53% | 20/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 69% | 9/13 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 100% | 8/8 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 94% | 33/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 77% | 27/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 2, Muchova 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Muchova
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jan 10, 2026
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · Semifinals
Oct 4, 2024
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 19, 2023
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · Semifinals
Jun 8, 2023
French Open - Paris
C Clay · Semifinals
Oct 27, 2019
Zhuhai
H Hard · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Muchova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Karolina Muchova | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 29% | 2/7 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 14% | 1/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 5–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 1.27 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | -10.1% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | -0.71u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 2 | 4 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Muchova has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Sabalenka's 60%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Nikola Bartunkova | L 46 36 | L 36 06 |
| Naomi Osaka | L 26 67 | W 75 16 76 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 46 75 26 | L 57 16 |
| Linda Noskova | W 76 36 76 | L 26 75 36 |
| Kamilla Rakhimova | W 63 64 | W 62 62 |
| Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano | W 62 64 | W 46 62 75 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 67 64 46 | W 64 75 |
| Shuai Zhang | W 63 64 | W 63 62 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | W 62 16 76 |
| Barbora Krejcikova | W 62 63 | W 75 57 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 8
Naomi Osaka
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Liudmila Samsonova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Katie Boulter
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Emma Navarro
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Katie Boulter
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sinja Kraus
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · Final
Jul 11
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 54–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 76% |
| Sets won | 79% | 68% |
| Games won | 59% | 55% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA Finals | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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