Karolina Muchova vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇨🇿Karolina Muchova
#7 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
7w6 meetings · sets 8–7
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#13 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Karolina Muchova and Naomi Osaka have met 6 times since 2020; they are level 3–3. Their first meeting came at Western & Southern Open - New York in 2020 on hard. On hard courts Osaka leads 3–1. Across all meetings Muchova has taken 8 sets to Osaka's 7. Their most recent meeting: Karolina Muchova won at Wimbledon - London (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Muchova | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Karolina Muchova | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 63% | 25/40 | 69% | 22/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 5/13 | 33% | 4/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 20/53 | 32% | 14/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 53% | 18/34 | 52% | 17/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 69% | 11/16 | 67% | 6/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 67% | 6/9 | 64% | 9/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 91% | 31/34 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Muchova 2, Osaka 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Muchova
💥 Big Hitter
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Karolina Muchova and Naomi Osaka are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Jul 7, 2026
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Sep 3, 2025
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jan 15, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 29, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
May 2, 2021
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Aug 24, 2020
Western & Southern Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Muchova | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Karolina Muchova | Naomi Osaka | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 100% | 16/16 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 9/12 | 88% | 14/16 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 6/12 | 81% | 13/16 |
| 10 or more | 8% | 1/12 | 6% | 1/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Muchova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–2 | 12–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.51 | 1.66 |
| ROI % | +16.3% | +7.9% |
| Units P/L | +1.63u | +1.27u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Muchova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 6 |
| Distance | — | 350 mi · 563 km |
| Route | — | AUT → CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Osaka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Muchova's 50%).
| Opponent | Muchova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Elena Rybakina | L 57 16 | L 64 67 46 |
| Elise Mertens | W 16 63 60 | W 61 62 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 60 62 | L 46 26 |
| Linda Noskova | L 26 75 36 | L 67 36 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 16 76 | W 63 62 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 36 46 | W 62 76 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | W 64 75 | W 62 62 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 26 06 | L 26 16 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 62 16 26 | W 61 62 |
| Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano | W 46 62 75 | W 62 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · Final
Jul 11
Coco Gauff
Wimbledon - London · Semifinals
Jul 9
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Barbora Krejcikova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Shuai Zhang
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Anastasia Zakharova
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Elena Gabriela Ruse
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg · Semifinals
Jun 26
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Leylah Fernandez
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 10
Elise Mertens
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Panna Udvardy
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Alexandra Eala
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Semifinals
Aug 1
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Karolina Muchova
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–53 matches
| Metric | Muchova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 75% | 73% |
| Sets won | 67% | 67% |
| Games won | 55% | 57% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Muchova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Muchova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.