Karolina Muchova vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇨🇿Karolina Muchova
#7 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
8 meetings · sets 10–8
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#18 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Karolina Muchova and Naomi Osaka have met 8 times since 2020; Karolina Muchova leads 5–3. Their first meeting came at Western & Southern Open - New York in 2020 on hard. On hard courts Osaka leads 3–2. On grass courts Muchova leads 2–0. Muchova has won the last 3 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Muchova leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Muchova has taken 10 sets to Osaka's 8. Their most recent meeting: Karolina Muchova won at China Open - Beijing (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Muchova | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Karolina Muchova | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 27/41 | 67% | 22/33 |
| Wins a set when losing | 31% | 4/13 | 27% | 3/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 18/54 | 32% | 14/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 53% | 20/38 | 55% | 18/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 69% | 9/13 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 100% | 8/8 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 33/35 | 94% | 32/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 77% | 27/35 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Muchova 2, Osaka 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Muchova
🤖 Servebot
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
8 career meetings, newest first
Oct 6, 2026
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 4th Round
Jul 7, 2026
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Jun 27, 2026
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg
G Grass · Final
Sep 3, 2025
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jan 15, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 29, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
May 2, 2021
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Aug 24, 2020
Western & Southern Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Muchova | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Karolina Muchova | Naomi Osaka | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 5 or more | 29% | 2/7 | 69% | 9/13 |
| 10 or more | 14% | 1/7 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Muchova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–2 | 9–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.27 | 1.46 |
| ROI % | -10.1% | -14.3% |
| Units P/L | -0.71u | -1.86u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Muchova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Osaka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Muchova's 60%).
| Opponent | Muchova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Elena Rybakina | L 57 16 | L 16 46 |
| Elise Mertens | W 16 63 60 | W 63 36 75 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 63 62 | W 76 76 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 60 62 | L 46 26 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 36 46 | W 62 76 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | W 64 75 | W 62 62 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 26 06 | L 26 16 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 62 16 26 | W 61 62 |
| Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano | W 46 62 75 | W 62 75 |
| Camila Osorio | W 46 62 75 | W 62 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 8
Naomi Osaka
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Liudmila Samsonova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Katie Boulter
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Emma Navarro
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Katie Boulter
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sinja Kraus
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · Final
Jul 11
Karolina Muchova
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Sara Bejlek
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Maria Timofeeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Elise Mertens
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Katerina Siniakova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Anastasia Zakharova
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–54 matches
| Metric | Muchova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 76% | 75% |
| Sets won | 68% | 68% |
| Games won | 55% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Muchova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 2 | 2 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 0 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Muchova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 3 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 2 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.