Liudmila Samsonova vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇷🇺Liudmila Samsonova
#43 · 27 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 5–8
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#18 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Liudmila Samsonova and Naomi Osaka have met 5 times since 2024; Naomi Osaka leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Osaka leads 3–0. Across all meetings Samsonova has taken 5 sets to Osaka's 8. Their most recent meeting: Naomi Osaka won at Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Samsonova | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Liudmila Samsonova | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 65% | 13/20 | 67% | 22/33 |
| Wins a set when losing | 58% | 14/24 | 27% | 3/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 48% | 21/44 | 32% | 14/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 46% | 11/24 | 55% | 18/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 12/20 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 42% | 5/12 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 64% | 18/28 | 94% | 32/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 46% | 13/28 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Samsonova 0, Osaka 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Samsonova
🤖 Servebot
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jul 30, 2025
Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 17, 2025
Berlin Ladies Open - Berlin
G Grass · 1st Round
Mar 20, 2025
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 2nd Round
Apr 25, 2024
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Mar 9, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Samsonova | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Liudmila Samsonova | Naomi Osaka | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 53% | 8/15 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 5 or more | 40% | 6/15 | 69% | 9/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Samsonova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–6 | 9–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.21 | 1.46 |
| ROI % | +20.9% | -14.3% |
| Units P/L | +3.35u | -1.86u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Samsonova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 6 | 3 |
| Distance | 7,530 mi · 12,118 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | UKR → ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Osaka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Samsonova's 20%).
| Opponent | Samsonova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Karolina Muchova | L 64 46 26 | L 57 61 67 |
| Elsa Jacquemot | W 76 62 | W 61 75 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 46 64 46 | L 16 46 |
| Elise Mertens | L 61 36 06 | W 63 36 75 |
| Katerina Siniakova | W 63 75 | W 62 57 61 |
| Leylah Fernandez | L 75 57 36 | W 64 64 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 36 46 | W 61 62 |
| Ashlyn Krueger | L 63 57 26 | W |
| Daria Kasatkina | L 57 36 | W 61 63 |
| Magdalena Frech | L 36 64 67 | W 64 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Karolina Muchova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Linda Fruhvirtova
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Peyton Stearns
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · Semifinals
Sep 19
Marta Kostyuk
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · Quarterfinals
Sep 17
Kayla Day
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Elsa Jacquemot
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round
Sep 15
Maya Joint
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Karolina Muchova
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Sara Bejlek
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Maria Timofeeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Elise Mertens
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Katerina Siniakova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Anastasia Zakharova
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–44 matches
| Metric | Samsonova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 45% | 75% |
| Sets won | 50% | 68% |
| Games won | 50% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Samsonova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 3 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Samsonova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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