Elise Mertens vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇪Elise Mertens
#14 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
10 meetings · sets 7–15
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#18 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Elise Mertens and Naomi Osaka have met 10 times since 2017; Naomi Osaka leads 7–3. Their first meeting came at Wuhan in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Osaka leads 5–3. On grass courts Osaka leads 2–0. Osaka has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Mertens has taken 7 sets to Osaka's 15. Their most recent meeting: Naomi Osaka won at U.S. Open - New York (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mertens | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elise Mertens | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 24/34 | 67% | 22/33 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 7/21 | 27% | 3/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 17/55 | 32% | 14/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 21/38 | 55% | 18/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 8/16 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 5/8 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 28/31 | 94% | 32/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 77% | 24/31 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 8 of 10 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mertens 2, Osaka 6).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mertens
💥 Big Hitter
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Elise Mertens and Naomi Osaka are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
10 career meetings, newest first
Sep 6, 2026
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 8, 2026
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jun 23, 2026
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg
G Grass · 2nd Round
Aug 8, 2024
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 11, 2024
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · 1st Round
Mar 11, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Mar 29, 2021
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 4th Round
Aug 28, 2020
Western & Southern Open - New York
H Hard · Semifinals
Sep 21, 2019
Osaka
H Hard · Semifinals
Sep 27, 2017
Wuhan
H Hard · Round of 64
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Mertens | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elise Mertens | Naomi Osaka | ||
| 1 or more | 88% | 14/16 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 12/16 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 5 or more | 56% | 9/16 | 69% | 9/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mertens | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–6 | 9–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.05 | 1.46 |
| ROI % | +23.4% | -14.3% |
| Units P/L | +3.74u | -1.86u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mertens | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 6 | 3 |
| Distance | 2,779 mi · 4,472 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | SGP → ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Mertens has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Osaka's 56%).
| Opponent | Mertens | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Iga Swiatek | W 76 63 | L 26 16 |
| Karolina Muchova | L 61 36 06 | L 57 61 67 |
| Maria Timofeeva | W 62 76 | W 63 36 63 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 76 61 | L 16 46 |
| Panna Udvardy | W 61 46 63 | W 62 64 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 63 63 | L 46 26 |
| Daria Kasatkina | L 46 06 | W 61 63 |
| Laura Siegemund | W 62 64 | W 63 76 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 36 26 | W 63 46 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Qinwen Zheng
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 10
Iga Swiatek
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Coco Gauff
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 7
Jelena Ostapenko
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Katie Volynets
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Maja Chwalinska
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Naomi Osaka
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Maria Timofeeva
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Karolina Muchova
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Sara Bejlek
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Maria Timofeeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Elise Mertens
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Katerina Siniakova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Anastasia Zakharova
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–55 matches
| Metric | Mertens | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 62% | 75% |
| Sets won | 59% | 68% |
| Games won | 54% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Mertens | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 3 | 2 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Mertens | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 5 |
| Grass | 0 | 2 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.