Elise Mertens vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇪Elise Mertens
#24 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
9 meetings · sets 6–13
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#13 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Elise Mertens and Naomi Osaka have met 9 times since 2017; Naomi Osaka leads 6–3. Their first meeting came at Wuhan in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Osaka leads 4–3. On grass courts Osaka leads 2–0. Osaka has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Mertens has taken 6 sets to Osaka's 13. Their most recent meeting: Naomi Osaka won at National Bank Open - Toronto (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mertens | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elise Mertens | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 21/29 | 69% | 22/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 35% | 7/20 | 33% | 4/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 15/49 | 32% | 14/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 58% | 19/33 | 52% | 17/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 42% | 5/12 | 67% | 6/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 57% | 4/7 | 64% | 9/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 23/27 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 21/27 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 8 of 9 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mertens 2, Osaka 6).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mertens
💥 Big Hitter
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Elise Mertens and Naomi Osaka are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
9 career meetings, newest first
Aug 8, 2026
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jun 23, 2026
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg
G Grass · 2nd Round
Aug 8, 2024
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 11, 2024
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · 1st Round
Mar 11, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Mar 29, 2021
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 4th Round
Aug 28, 2020
Western & Southern Open - New York
H Hard · Semifinals
Sep 21, 2019
Osaka
H Hard · Semifinals
Sep 27, 2017
Wuhan
H Hard · Round of 64
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Mertens | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elise Mertens | Naomi Osaka | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 14/14 | 100% | 16/16 |
| 3 or more | 64% | 9/14 | 88% | 14/16 |
| 5 or more | 43% | 6/14 | 81% | 13/16 |
| 10 or more | 7% | 1/14 | 6% | 1/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mertens | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–5 | 12–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.84 | 1.66 |
| ROI % | +12.4% | +7.9% |
| Units P/L | +1.73u | +1.27u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mertens | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 6 |
| Distance | 1,715 mi · 2,760 km | 350 mi · 563 km |
| Route | CAN → POL → AUT | AUT → CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Osaka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Mertens's 40%).
| Opponent | Mertens | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Panna Udvardy | W 61 46 63 | W 62 64 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 76 61 | L 64 67 46 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 63 63 | L 46 26 |
| Linda Noskova | L 36 57 | L 67 36 |
| Karolina Muchova | L 61 36 06 | L 67 46 |
| Daria Kasatkina | L 46 06 | W 61 63 |
| Laura Siegemund | W 62 64 | W 63 76 |
| Elsa Jacquemot | L 64 36 46 | W 61 75 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 36 26 | W 63 46 62 |
| Coco Gauff | L 62 67 36 | W 63 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Diane Parry
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · Final
Aug 30
Nikola Bartunkova
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · Semifinals
Aug 29
Yuliia Starodubtseva
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Panna Udvardy
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Diane Parry
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Naomi Osaka
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Anna Bondar
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Leylah Fernandez
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 10
Elise Mertens
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Panna Udvardy
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Alexandra Eala
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Semifinals
Aug 1
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Karolina Muchova
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–49 matches
| Metric | Mertens | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 59% | 73% |
| Sets won | 58% | 67% |
| Games won | 54% | 57% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Mertens | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 3 | 2 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Mertens | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 4 |
| Grass | 0 | 2 |
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