Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise MertensPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
12 meetings · sets 21–7
🇧🇪Elise Mertens
#14 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens have met 12 times since 2018; Aryna Sabalenka leads 10–2. Their first meeting came at Lugano in 2018 on clay. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 6–1. On clay courts Sabalenka leads 2–1. On grass courts Sabalenka leads 2–0. Sabalenka has won the last 9 meetings. 2 of their meetings have been finals, split 1–1. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 21 sets to Mertens's 7. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Wimbledon - London (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Mertens | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Elise Mertens | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 71% | 24/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 33% | 7/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 31% | 17/55 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 55% | 21/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 50% | 8/16 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 63% | 5/8 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 90% | 28/31 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 77% | 24/31 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 8 of 12 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 7, Mertens 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Mertens
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
12 career meetings, newest first
Jul 6, 2025
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 4th Round
Apr 27, 2025
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 3rd Round
Apr 19, 2025
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Sep 1, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 4th Round
Jan 21, 2023
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
Sep 5, 2021
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 4th Round
Nov 15, 2020
Upper Austria Ladies Linz - Linz
H Hard · Final
Feb 19, 2020
Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 2nd Round
Oct 24, 2019
Zhuhai
H Hard · Round Robin
Aug 9, 2018
Montreal
H Hard · Round of 16
Jun 28, 2018
Eastbourne
G Grass · Round of 16
Apr 15, 2018
Lugano
C Clay · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Mertens | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Elise Mertens | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 88% | 14/16 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 75% | 12/16 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 56% | 9/16 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 10–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 2.05 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | +23.4% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | +3.74u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 6 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 2,779 mi · 4,472 km |
| Route | ROU | SGP → ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Mertens's 60%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Qinwen Zheng | W 63 64 | L 57 26 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | W 63 63 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | W 64 64 | W 62 36 63 |
| Nikola Bartunkova | L 46 36 | W 16 64 62 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 46 75 26 | W 76 61 |
| Linda Noskova | W 76 36 76 | L 36 57 |
| Naomi Osaka | L 26 67 | L 36 63 57 |
| Moyuka Uchijima | W 63 63 | W 63 61 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 61 76 | W |
| Daria Kasatkina | W 60 75 | L 46 06 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Qinwen Zheng
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 10
Iga Swiatek
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Coco Gauff
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 7
Jelena Ostapenko
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Katie Volynets
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Maja Chwalinska
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Naomi Osaka
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Maria Timofeeva
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 55–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 62% |
| Sets won | 79% | 59% |
| Games won | 59% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 4 | 0 |
| WTA Finals | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| Other | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 6 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 1 |
| Grass | 2 | 0 |
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