Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena RybakinaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
17 meetings · sets 22–22
🇰🇿Elena Rybakina
#2 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed
8Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina have met 17 times since 2019; Aryna Sabalenka leads 10–7. Their first meeting came at Wuhan in 2019 on hard. On hard courts they are level 7–7. On grass courts Sabalenka leads 2–0. Sabalenka has won the last 2 meetings. 6 of their meetings have been finals, with Rybakina leading those 4–2. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 22 sets to Rybakina's 22. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Miami Open - Miami (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Rybakina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Elena Rybakina | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 68% | 39/57 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 62% | 8/13 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 37% | 26/70 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 60% | 37/62 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 71% | 5/7 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 94% | 46/49 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 80% | 39/49 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 7 of 17 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 2, Rybakina 5).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Rybakina
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 3,090 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
17 career meetings, newest first
Mar 26, 2026
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · Semifinals
Mar 15, 2026
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Final
Jan 31, 2026
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · Final
Nov 8, 2025
WTA Finals - Riyadh
H Hard · Final
Oct 10, 2025
Wuhan Open - Wuhan
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 15, 2025
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jun 20, 2025
Berlin Ladies Open - Berlin
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Nov 6, 2024
WTA Finals - Riyadh
H Hard · Round Robin
May 2, 2024
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · Semifinals
Jan 7, 2024
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · Final
Nov 3, 2023
WTA Finals - Cancun
H Hard · Round Robin
Oct 6, 2023
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 19, 2023
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Final
Jan 28, 2023
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · Final
Jul 5, 2021
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 4th Round
Jan 11, 2021
Abu Dhabi Tennis Open - Abu Dhabi
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Sep 27, 2019
Wuhan
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Rybakina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Elena Rybakina | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 73% | 11/15 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 73% | 11/15 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 27% | 4/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 13% | 2/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 11–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 1.32 |
| ROI % | -23.4% | +6.4% |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | +0.90u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 8 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rybakina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Sabalenka's 70%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Diana Shnaider | L 63 57 06 | W 64 64 |
| Talia Gibson | W 62 76 | W 62 62 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | W 57 62 62 |
| Naomi Osaka | L 26 67 | W 46 76 64 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 67 64 46 | W 64 64 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 63 62 | W 64 46 64 |
| Shuai Zhang | W 63 64 | W 63 75 |
| Ann Li | W 76 64 | W 62 75 |
| Daria Kasatkina | W 60 75 | W 63 57 64 |
| Caty Mcnally | W 64 62 | W 61 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Taylor Townsend
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Coco Gauff
National Bank Open - Toronto · Semifinals
Aug 13
Naomi Osaka
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Liudmila Samsonova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Ann Li
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Daria Kasatkina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 60–70 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 81% |
| Sets won | 79% | 73% |
| Games won | 59% | 58% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 2 | 4 |
| Grand Slam | 2 | 1 |
| WTA Finals | 1 | 2 |
| WTA 500 | 2 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 5 | 3 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 7 | 7 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 2 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.