Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena RybakinaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
18 meetings · sets 23–24
🇰🇿Elena Rybakina
#1 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina have met 18 times since 2019; Aryna Sabalenka leads 10–8. Their first meeting came at Wuhan in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Rybakina leads 8–7. On grass courts Sabalenka leads 2–0. 7 of their meetings have been finals, with Rybakina leading those 5–2. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 23 sets to Rybakina's 24. Their most recent meeting: Elena Rybakina won at U.S. Open - New York (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Rybakina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Elena Rybakina | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 67% | 40/60 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 38% | 27/72 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 61% | 39/64 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 75% | 6/8 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 92% | 47/51 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 78% | 40/51 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 7 of 18 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 2, Rybakina 5).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Rybakina
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
18 career meetings, newest first
Sep 12, 2026
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Final
Mar 26, 2026
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · Semifinals
Mar 15, 2026
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Final
Jan 31, 2026
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · Final
Nov 8, 2025
WTA Finals - Riyadh
H Hard · Final
Oct 10, 2025
Wuhan Open - Wuhan
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 15, 2025
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jun 20, 2025
Berlin Ladies Open - Berlin
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Nov 6, 2024
WTA Finals - Riyadh
H Hard · Round Robin
May 2, 2024
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · Semifinals
Jan 7, 2024
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · Final
Nov 3, 2023
WTA Finals - Cancun
H Hard · Round Robin
Oct 6, 2023
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 19, 2023
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Final
Jan 28, 2023
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · Final
Jul 5, 2021
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 4th Round
Jan 11, 2021
Abu Dhabi Tennis Open - Abu Dhabi
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Sep 27, 2019
Wuhan
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Rybakina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Elena Rybakina | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 100% | 16/16 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 94% | 15/16 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 88% | 14/16 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 31% | 5/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 13% | 2/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 15–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 1.47 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | +28.5% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | +4.85u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rybakina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Sabalenka's 70%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | W 36 64 64 |
| Jessica Pegula | W 75 62 | W 26 63 64 |
| Qinwen Zheng | W 63 64 | W 36 61 64 |
| Naomi Osaka | L 26 67 | W 61 64 |
| Taylor Townsend | W 64 63 | W 63 64 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 64 62 | W 62 64 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 63 57 06 | W 64 64 |
| Talia Gibson | W 62 76 | W 62 62 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 67 64 46 | W 64 64 |
| Shuai Zhang | W 63 64 | W 63 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Charaeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Aryna Sabalenka
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Coco Gauff
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 11
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Naomi Osaka
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Yuliia Starodubtseva
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Thea Frodin
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 62–72 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 83% |
| Sets won | 79% | 74% |
| Games won | 59% | 58% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 2 | 5 |
| Grand Slam | 2 | 2 |
| WTA Finals | 1 | 2 |
| WTA 500 | 2 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 5 | 3 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 7 | 8 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 2 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.