Elena Rybakina vs Jessica PegulaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇰🇿Elena Rybakina
#1 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed
9 meetings · sets 13–8
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#4 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
5wElena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula have met 9 times since 2022; Elena Rybakina leads 6–3. Their first meeting came at Miami Open - Miami in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Rybakina leads 6–3. Rybakina has won the last 5 meetings. Across all meetings Rybakina has taken 13 sets to Pegula's 8. Their most recent meeting: Elena Rybakina won at Miami Open - Miami (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rybakina | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elena Rybakina | Jessica Pegula | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 40/60 | 61% | 31/51 |
| Wins a set when losing | 58% | 7/12 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 27/72 | 41% | 27/66 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 61% | 39/64 | 55% | 29/53 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 6/8 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 56% | 9/16 | 69% | 9/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 47/51 | 89% | 39/44 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 40/51 | 70% | 31/44 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 6 of 9 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rybakina 4, Pegula 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rybakina
🤖 Servebot
Pegula
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 54% vs 🤖 Servebot across 2,084 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Jessica Pegula.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the servebot's high ace rate.
Previous meetings
9 career meetings, newest first
Mar 25, 2026
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 12, 2026
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jan 29, 2026
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · Semifinals
Nov 7, 2025
WTA Finals - Riyadh
H Hard · Semifinals
Sep 18, 2025
Billie Jean King Cup, Finals
H Hard · Rubber 2
Oct 29, 2023
WTA Finals - Cancun
H Hard · Round Robin
Mar 30, 2023
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · Semifinals
Oct 19, 2022
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 27, 2022
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rybakina | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elena Rybakina | Jessica Pegula | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 16/16 | 95% | 18/19 |
| 3 or more | 94% | 15/16 | 90% | 17/19 |
| 5 or more | 88% | 14/16 | 37% | 7/19 |
| 10 or more | 31% | 5/16 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 15 or more | 13% | 2/16 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rybakina | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–2 | 14–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.47 | 1.48 |
| ROI % | +28.5% | +4.8% |
| Units P/L | +4.85u | +0.86u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rybakina | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 1 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | ROU | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rybakina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Pegula's 70%).
| Opponent | Rybakina | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | W 64 57 62 | L 57 26 |
| Coco Gauff | W 36 64 64 | L 26 46 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva | W 76 63 | W 62 62 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 62 64 | W 61 63 |
| Leylah Fernandez | W 67 64 76 | W 16 64 63 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | W 46 63 75 | W 63 62 |
| Iga Swiatek | L | W 75 46 64 |
| Diana Shnaider | W 64 64 | L 36 36 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 63 61 | W 64 26 76 |
| Magdalena Frech | W 64 76 | W 36 63 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alina Charaeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Aryna Sabalenka
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Coco Gauff
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 11
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Naomi Osaka
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Yuliia Starodubtseva
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Thea Frodin
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Aryna Sabalenka
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Emma Navarro
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Leylah Fernandez
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Sofia Kenin
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Elena Gabriela Ruse
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 66–72 matches
| Metric | Rybakina | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 77% |
| Sets won | 74% | 69% |
| Games won | 58% | 57% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rybakina | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA Finals | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 3 | 2 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rybakina | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 6 | 3 |
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