Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica PegulaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
13 meetings · sets 21–10
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#3 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula have met 13 times since 2020; Aryna Sabalenka leads 9–4. Their first meeting came at Western & Southern Open - New York in 2020 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 6–3. On clay courts Sabalenka leads 3–0. 3 of their meetings have been finals, with Sabalenka leading those 3–0. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 21 sets to Pegula's 10. Their most recent meeting: Jessica Pegula won at Berlin Tennis Open - Berlin (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Jessica Pegula | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 54% | 31/57 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 47% | 9/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 46% | 35/76 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 50% | 30/60 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 63% | 10/16 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 63% | 12/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 88% | 42/48 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 65% | 31/48 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 8 of 13 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 7, Pegula 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Pegula
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
13 career meetings, newest first
Jun 20, 2026
Berlin Tennis Open - Berlin
G Grass · Semifinals
Nov 4, 2025
WTA Finals - Riyadh
H Hard · Round Robin
Oct 11, 2025
Wuhan Open - Wuhan
H Hard · Semifinals
Sep 4, 2025
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Semifinals
Mar 29, 2025
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · Final
Sep 7, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Final
Aug 19, 2024
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · Final
Oct 31, 2023
WTA Finals - Cancun
H Hard · Round Robin
Nov 4, 2022
WTA Finals - Fort Worth
H Hard · Round Robin
May 12, 2022
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
May 4, 2021
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 3rd Round
Sep 29, 2020
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 1st Round
Aug 25, 2020
Western & Southern Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Jessica Pegula | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 95% | 20/21 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 76% | 16/21 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 33% | 7/21 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 5% | 1/21 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 17–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 1.48 |
| ROI % | -23.4% | +10.4% |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | +2.29u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 5 | 12 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 761 mi · 1,225 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | AUT → CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Sabalenka and Pegula posted a 70% win rate.
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | L 26 46 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 63 36 63 | W 64 26 76 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 62 36 57 | W 62 46 75 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 67 64 46 | W 75 36 63 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 63 57 06 | L 36 36 |
| Iva Jovic | W 63 60 | W 46 63 61 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | W 64 64 | W 46 63 62 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 64 62 | W 61 63 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 61 76 | W 60 62 |
| Linda Noskova | W 63 64 | L 46 64 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Amanda Anisimova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Sorana Cirstea
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Emma Navarro
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Simona Waltert
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Diana Shnaider
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 8
Kamilla Rakhimova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 60–76 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 75% |
| Sets won | 79% | 66% |
| Games won | 59% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 3 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 3 | 0 |
| WTA Finals | 2 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 4 | 1 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 6 | 3 |
| Clay | 3 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.