Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica PegulaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
14 meetings · sets 23–10
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#4 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
5wAryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula have met 14 times since 2020; Aryna Sabalenka leads 10–4. Their first meeting came at Western & Southern Open - New York in 2020 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 7–3. On clay courts Sabalenka leads 3–0. 3 of their meetings have been finals, with Sabalenka leading those 3–0. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 23 sets to Pegula's 10. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at U.S. Open - New York (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Jessica Pegula | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 61% | 31/51 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 41% | 27/66 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 55% | 29/53 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 58% | 7/12 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 69% | 9/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 89% | 39/44 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 70% | 31/44 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 9 of 14 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 8, Pegula 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Pegula
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
14 career meetings, newest first
Sep 10, 2026
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Semifinals
Jun 20, 2026
Berlin Tennis Open - Berlin
G Grass · Semifinals
Nov 4, 2025
WTA Finals - Riyadh
H Hard · Round Robin
Oct 11, 2025
Wuhan Open - Wuhan
H Hard · Semifinals
Sep 4, 2025
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Semifinals
Mar 29, 2025
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · Final
Sep 7, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Final
Aug 19, 2024
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · Final
Oct 31, 2023
WTA Finals - Cancun
H Hard · Round Robin
Nov 4, 2022
WTA Finals - Fort Worth
H Hard · Round Robin
May 12, 2022
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
May 4, 2021
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 3rd Round
Sep 29, 2020
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 1st Round
Aug 25, 2020
Western & Southern Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Jessica Pegula | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 95% | 18/19 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 90% | 17/19 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 37% | 7/19 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 14–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 1.48 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | +4.8% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | +0.86u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 2 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | ROU | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Pegula's 60%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Elena Rybakina | L 46 75 26 | L 62 36 46 |
| Linda Noskova | W 76 36 76 | L 46 64 36 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 62 36 57 | W 63 64 |
| Kamilla Rakhimova | W 63 64 | W 64 60 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | L 26 46 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 63 36 63 | W 64 26 76 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 63 57 06 | L 36 36 |
| Iva Jovic | W 63 60 | W 46 63 61 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | W 64 64 | W 46 63 62 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 64 62 | W 61 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Aryna Sabalenka
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Emma Navarro
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Leylah Fernandez
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Sofia Kenin
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Elena Gabriela Ruse
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 62–66 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 77% |
| Sets won | 79% | 69% |
| Games won | 59% | 57% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 3 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 4 | 0 |
| WTA Finals | 2 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 4 | 1 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 7 | 3 |
| Clay | 3 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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