Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 7–5
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#13 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka have met 5 times since 2018; Aryna Sabalenka leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2018 on hard. On clay courts Sabalenka leads 2–0. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 7 sets to Osaka's 5. Their most recent meeting: Naomi Osaka won at Wimbledon - London (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 69% | 22/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 33% | 4/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 32% | 14/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 52% | 17/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 67% | 6/9 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 64% | 9/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 2, Osaka 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jul 5, 2026
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 4th Round
Jun 1, 2026
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 4th Round
Apr 27, 2026
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 4th Round
Mar 10, 2026
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 4th Round
Aug 30, 2018
US Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Naomi Osaka | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 100% | 16/16 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 88% | 14/16 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 81% | 13/16 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 6% | 1/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 12–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 1.66 |
| ROI % | -23.4% | +7.9% |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | +1.27u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 6 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 350 mi · 563 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | AUT → CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Sabalenka and Osaka posted a 70% win rate.
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Talia Gibson | W 62 76 | L 57 46 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 64 63 | L 64 67 46 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 67 64 46 | W 62 62 |
| Karolina Muchova | W 63 64 | L 67 46 |
| Daria Kasatkina | W 60 75 | W 61 63 |
| Elsa Jacquemot | W 75 62 | W 61 75 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 63 57 06 | W 61 62 |
| Iva Jovic | W 63 60 | W 76 67 64 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 62 36 57 | W 63 46 62 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | W 63 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Leylah Fernandez
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 10
Elise Mertens
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Panna Udvardy
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Alexandra Eala
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Semifinals
Aug 1
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Karolina Muchova
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 73% |
| Sets won | 79% | 67% |
| Games won | 59% | 57% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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