Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 7–5
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#18 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka have met 5 times since 2018; Aryna Sabalenka leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2018 on hard. On clay courts Sabalenka leads 2–0. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 7 sets to Osaka's 5. Their most recent meeting: Naomi Osaka won at Wimbledon - London (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 67% | 22/33 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 27% | 3/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 32% | 14/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 55% | 18/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 60% | 6/10 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 94% | 32/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 2, Osaka 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jul 5, 2026
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 4th Round
Jun 1, 2026
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 4th Round
Apr 27, 2026
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 4th Round
Mar 10, 2026
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 4th Round
Aug 30, 2018
US Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Naomi Osaka | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 69% | 9/13 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 9–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 1.46 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | -14.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | -1.86u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Osaka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Sabalenka's 60%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Karolina Muchova | W 63 64 | L 57 61 67 |
| Sara Bejlek | L 67 46 | W 76 64 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 46 75 26 | L 16 46 |
| Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano | W 62 64 | W 62 75 |
| Talia Gibson | W 62 76 | L 57 46 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 67 64 46 | W 62 62 |
| Daria Kasatkina | W 60 75 | W 61 63 |
| Elsa Jacquemot | W 75 62 | W 61 75 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 63 57 06 | W 61 62 |
| Iva Jovic | W 63 60 | W 76 67 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Karolina Muchova
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Sara Bejlek
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Maria Timofeeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Elise Mertens
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Katerina Siniakova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Anastasia Zakharova
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 75% |
| Sets won | 79% | 68% |
| Games won | 59% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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