Jessica Pegula vs Marta KostyukPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#3 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
7 meetings · sets 8–8
🇺🇦Marta Kostyuk
#11 · 23 yrs · Right-Handed
Jessica Pegula and Marta Kostyuk have met 7 times since 2022; Jessica Pegula leads 4–3. Their first meeting came at Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Pegula leads 4–2. Kostyuk has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Pegula has taken 8 sets to Kostyuk's 8. Their most recent meeting: Marta Kostyuk won at Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Pegula | Kostyuk | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jessica Pegula | Marta Kostyuk | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 31/57 | 73% | 27/37 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 9/19 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 35/76 | 31% | 15/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 30/60 | 62% | 21/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 63% | 10/16 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 54% | 7/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 42/48 | 91% | 31/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 31/48 | 79% | 27/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pegula 2, Kostyuk 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Pegula
💥 Big Hitter
Kostyuk
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Apr 26, 2026
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 3rd Round
Jan 10, 2026
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · Semifinals
Oct 1, 2025
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 4th Round
Mar 24, 2025
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 4th Round
Mar 2, 2024
San Diego Open - San Diego
H Hard · Semifinals
Jan 20, 2023
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 17, 2022
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Pegula | Kostyuk | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jessica Pegula | Marta Kostyuk | ||
| 1 or more | 95% | 20/21 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 76% | 16/21 | 60% | 9/15 |
| 5 or more | 33% | 7/21 | 47% | 7/15 |
| 10 or more | 5% | 1/21 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Pegula | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 17–5 | 11–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.48 | 1.55 |
| ROI % | +10.4% | +3.3% |
| Units P/L | +2.29u | +0.49u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Pegula | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 11 | 7 |
| Distance | 761 mi · 1,225 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | AUT → CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Kostyuk's 60%).
| Opponent | Pegula | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Coco Gauff | L 26 46 | L 26 26 |
| Iga Swiatek | W 75 46 64 | L 63 16 26 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 64 26 76 | W 64 63 |
| Emma Navarro | W 75 62 | W 62 46 61 |
| Madison Keys | W 76 76 | W 63 61 |
| Kamilla Rakhimova | W 64 60 | W 62 64 |
| Linda Noskova | L 46 64 36 | L 46 46 |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 62 63 | W 63 62 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 61 63 | W 76 62 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | W 64 67 60 | L 46 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Amanda Anisimova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Sorana Cirstea
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Emma Navarro
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Simona Waltert
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Diana Shnaider
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 8
Kamilla Rakhimova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Mirra Andreeva
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Sloane Stephens
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Sofia Kenin
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Iga Swiatek
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 8
Madison Keys
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Katherine Sebov
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · Semifinals
Jul 9
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 48–76 matches
| Metric | Pegula | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 75% | 77% |
| Sets won | 66% | 71% |
| Games won | 56% | 59% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Pegula | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 3 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Pegula | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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