Jessica Pegula vs Marta KostyukPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#4 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
5w7 meetings · sets 8–8
🇺🇦Marta Kostyuk
#10 · 23 yrs · Right-Handed
4wJessica Pegula and Marta Kostyuk have met 7 times since 2022; Jessica Pegula leads 4–3. Their first meeting came at Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Pegula leads 4–2. Kostyuk has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Pegula has taken 8 sets to Kostyuk's 8. Their most recent meeting: Marta Kostyuk won at Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Pegula | Kostyuk | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jessica Pegula | Marta Kostyuk | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 31/51 | 72% | 26/36 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 7/15 | 40% | 4/10 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 27/66 | 30% | 14/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 29/53 | 59% | 20/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 58% | 7/12 | 67% | 8/12 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 69% | 9/13 | 40% | 4/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 39/44 | 91% | 30/33 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 70% | 31/44 | 79% | 26/33 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pegula 2, Kostyuk 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Pegula
👑 The Complete Package
Kostyuk
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
Both Jessica Pegula and Marta Kostyuk are 👑 The Complete Package types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 4,208 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Apr 26, 2026
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 3rd Round
Jan 10, 2026
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · Semifinals
Oct 1, 2025
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 4th Round
Mar 24, 2025
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 4th Round
Mar 2, 2024
San Diego Open - San Diego
H Hard · Semifinals
Jan 20, 2023
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 17, 2022
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Pegula | Kostyuk | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jessica Pegula | Marta Kostyuk | ||
| 1 or more | 95% | 18/19 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 90% | 17/19 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 5 or more | 37% | 7/19 | 58% | 7/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Pegula | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–4 | 8–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.48 | 1.49 |
| ROI % | +4.8% | -11.8% |
| Units P/L | +0.86u | -1.41u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Pegula | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 1 |
| Matches | — | 1 |
| Distance | — | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | — | UKR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Kostyuk's 50%).
| Opponent | Pegula | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 63 76 | L 64 26 57 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 57 26 | L 46 36 |
| Emma Navarro | W 36 64 63 | W 62 46 61 |
| Linda Noskova | L 46 64 36 | L 57 75 46 |
| Sofia Kenin | W 63 61 | W 46 63 75 |
| Coco Gauff | L 26 46 | L 26 26 |
| Iga Swiatek | W 75 46 64 | L 63 16 26 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 64 26 76 | W 64 63 |
| Madison Keys | W 76 76 | W 63 61 |
| Kamilla Rakhimova | W 64 60 | W 62 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Aryna Sabalenka
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Emma Navarro
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Leylah Fernandez
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Sofia Kenin
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Elena Gabriela Ruse
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Liudmila Samsonova
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · Quarterfinals
Sep 17
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Ekaterina Alexandrova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Sloane Stephens
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Storm Hunter
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Mirra Andreeva
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Sloane Stephens
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 46–66 matches
| Metric | Pegula | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 77% | 78% |
| Sets won | 69% | 72% |
| Games won | 57% | 59% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Pegula | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 3 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Pegula | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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