Andrey Rublev vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Andrey Rublev and Tommy Paul have met 6 times since 2018; Andrey Rublev leads 5–1. Their first meeting came at Washington in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Rublev leads 3–1. On clay courts Rublev leads 2–0. Rublev has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Rublev has taken 11 sets to Paul's 4. Their most recent meeting: Andrey Rublev won at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rublev | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Andrey Rublev | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 17/24 | 55% | 16/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 7/18 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 14/42 | 49% | 20/41 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 17/36 | 39% | 14/36 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 17% | 1/6 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 44% | 8/18 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 21/26 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 17/26 | 62% | 16/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rublev 3, Paul 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rublev
🤖 Servebot
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 3,444 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Oct 11, 2023
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 4th Round
Oct 14, 2022
Gijon Open - Gijon
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Oct 11, 2021
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
May 4, 2021
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Sep 23, 2020
Hamburg European Open - Hamburg
C Clay · 2nd Round
Aug 1, 2018
Washington
H Hard · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rublev | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Andrey Rublev | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 11/11 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 11/11 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 5 or more | 82% | 9/11 | 80% | 12/15 |
| 10 or more | 36% | 4/11 | 33% | 5/15 |
| 15 or more | 18% | 2/11 | 13% | 2/15 |
| 20 or more | 9% | 1/11 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rublev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–5 | 10–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.44 | 1.54 |
| ROI % | -22.6% | +12.2% |
| Units P/L | -2.48u | +1.71u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rublev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 5 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rublev has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Paul's 50%).
| Opponent | Rublev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hubert Hurkacz | L 36 26 | W 64 67 63 |
| Learner Tien | W 64 64 | L 36 26 |
| Valentin Royer | W 63 64 | W 64 76 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 64 63 | L 63 36 26 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | L 36 67 36 | L 76 46 36 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 64 67 63 | W 63 63 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 64 64 | W 63 76 |
| Lorenzo Sonego | W 62 63 | W 63 62 64 |
| Ignacio Buse | W 63 67 63 75 | L 67 64 36 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | W 64 64 | L 75 46 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nuno Borges
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Pablo Carreno Busta
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Juncheng Shang
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Timofey Skatov
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Luciano Darderi
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 19
Alejandro Tabilo
Nordea Open - Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 18
Sebastian Baez
Nordea Open - Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Hubert Hurkacz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Learner Tien
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Kamil Majchrzak
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Hubert Hurkacz
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Soonwoo Kwon
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–52 matches
| Metric | Rublev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 69% |
| Sets won | 56% | 64% |
| Games won | 52% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rublev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 2 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rublev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
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