Andrey Rublev vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Andrey Rublev and Tommy Paul have met 6 times since 2018; Andrey Rublev leads 5–1. Their first meeting came at Washington in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Rublev leads 3–1. On clay courts Rublev leads 2–0. Rublev has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Rublev has taken 11 sets to Paul's 4. Their most recent meeting: Andrey Rublev won at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rublev | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Andrey Rublev | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 19/29 | 57% | 17/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 7/18 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 17/47 | 48% | 21/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 49% | 19/39 | 38% | 15/39 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 25% | 2/8 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 55% | 11/20 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 25/30 | 79% | 22/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 63% | 19/30 | 61% | 17/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rublev 3, Paul 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rublev
💥 Big Hitter
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Andrey Rublev and Tommy Paul are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 4,120 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Oct 11, 2023
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 4th Round
Oct 14, 2022
Gijon Open - Gijon
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Oct 11, 2021
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
May 4, 2021
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Sep 23, 2020
Hamburg European Open - Hamburg
C Clay · 2nd Round
Aug 1, 2018
Washington
H Hard · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rublev | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Andrey Rublev | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 5 or more | 83% | 15/18 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 10 or more | 44% | 8/18 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 15 or more | 11% | 2/18 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 6% | 1/18 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rublev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–7 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.50 | 1.81 |
| ROI % | -14.8% | +1.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.67u | +0.17u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rublev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 8 | 2 |
| Distance | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rublev has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Paul's 50%).
| Opponent | Rublev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Alex de Minaur | L 61 26 36 | W 26 63 63 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 64 46 64 | L 16 26 |
| Rinky Hijikata | W 63 63 | W 46 63 75 64 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | L 67 46 | L 46 36 46 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | L 36 26 | W 64 67 63 |
| Learner Tien | W 64 64 | L 36 26 |
| Valentin Royer | W 63 64 | W 64 76 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 64 63 | L 63 36 26 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | L 36 67 36 | L 76 46 36 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 64 67 63 | W 63 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Alex de Minaur
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Roman Safiullin
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Tallon Griekspoor
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Daniil Medvedev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Kyrian Jacquet
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Hugo Gaston
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Rinky Hijikata
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Carlos Alcaraz
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Alexander Bublik
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Dino Prizmic
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Chak Pong Marco Lam
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Flavio Cobolli
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 57–58 matches
| Metric | Rublev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 69% |
| Sets won | 58% | 64% |
| Games won | 53% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rublev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rublev | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
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