Andrey Rublev vs Carlos AlcarazPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Andrey Rublev and Carlos Alcaraz have met 6 times since 2023; Carlos Alcaraz leads 5–1. Their first meeting came at Nitto ATP Finals - Turin in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Alcaraz leads 4–0. Alcaraz has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Rublev has taken 4 sets to Alcaraz's 12. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at Qatar ExxonMobil Open - Doha (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rublev | Alcaraz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Andrey Rublev | Carlos Alcaraz | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 19/29 | 72% | 18/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 7/18 | 40% | 2/5 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 17/47 | 30% | 9/30 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 49% | 19/39 | 64% | 18/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 25% | 2/8 | 0% | 0/2 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 55% | 11/20 | 54% | 7/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 25/30 | 95% | 21/22 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 63% | 19/30 | 82% | 18/22 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rublev 0, Alcaraz 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rublev
💥 Big Hitter
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 1,618 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Andrey Rublev.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Feb 20, 2026
Qatar ExxonMobil Open - Doha
H Hard · Semifinals
Aug 15, 2025
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jul 6, 2025
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 4th Round
Nov 13, 2024
Nitto ATP Finals - Turin
H Hard · Round Robin
May 1, 2024
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Nov 15, 2023
Nitto ATP Finals - Turin
H Hard · Round Robin
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rublev | Alcaraz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Andrey Rublev | Carlos Alcaraz | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 19/19 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 19/19 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 5 or more | 84% | 16/19 | 25% | 3/12 |
| 10 or more | 47% | 9/19 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 16% | 3/19 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/19 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rublev | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–7 | 11–1 |
| Avg odds | 1.49 | 1.15 |
| ROI % | -12.3% | +4.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.33u | +0.51u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rublev | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 3 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 8 | 7 |
| Distance | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km |
| Route | CHN | GBR → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Rublev's 60%).
| Opponent | Rublev | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Alex de Minaur | L 61 26 36 | W 75 62 61 |
| Roman Safiullin | W 62 36 64 | W 64 64 64 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | W 64 62 63 | W 76 61 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 57 46 | L 36 67 |
| Ben Shelton | L 67 36 | L 76 16 36 61 67 |
| Yibing Wu | W 36 62 61 | W 63 64 61 |
| Jaime Faria | W 64 63 46 75 | W 46 60 63 62 |
| Otto Virtanen | W 67 67 60 62 76 | W 64 62 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 61 62 | W 61 63 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 26 46 | L 67 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Alex de Minaur
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Roman Safiullin
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Tallon Griekspoor
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Daniil Medvedev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Kyrian Jacquet
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Hugo Gaston
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Rinky Hijikata
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Jiri Lehecka
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Final
Oct 6
Jaume Munar
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Semifinals
Oct 5
Denis Shapovalov
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Matteo Arnaldi
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alex Michelsen
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Taylor Fritz
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–57 matches
| Metric | Rublev | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 86% |
| Sets won | 58% | 78% |
| Games won | 53% | 59% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rublev | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Finals | 0 | 2 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rublev | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 4 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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