Alex de Minaur vs Andrey RublevPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev have met 9 times since 2018; Alex de Minaur leads 5–4. Their first meeting came at Washington in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 5–3. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 16 sets to Rublev's 13. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at China Open - Beijing (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Rublev | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Andrey Rublev | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 66% | 19/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 39% | 7/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 36% | 17/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 49% | 19/39 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 25% | 2/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 55% | 11/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 83% | 25/30 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 63% | 19/30 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 1, Rublev 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Rublev
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
9 career meetings, newest first
Oct 4, 2026
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Feb 20, 2025
Qatar ExxonMobil Open - Doha
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Feb 16, 2024
ABN AMRO Open - Rotterdam
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jan 21, 2024
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 4th Round
Nov 3, 2023
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Feb 15, 2023
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament - Rotterdam
H Hard · 1st Round
Apr 13, 2022
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 2nd Round
Nov 7, 2018
Next Gen ATP Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Aug 4, 2018
Washington
H Hard · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Rublev | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Andrey Rublev | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 19/19 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 100% | 19/19 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 84% | 16/19 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 47% | 9/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 5% | 1/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 12–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 1.49 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | -12.3% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | -2.33u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 8 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Rublev's 40%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| Rei Sakamoto | W 76 64 | L 46 46 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W | L 36 26 |
| Mariano Navone | W 76 62 | W 64 75 |
| Arthur Fils | L 36 46 | L 26 67 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 75 67 16 | L 26 76 26 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 64 36 63 | W 63 76 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 60 63 | W 64 63 |
| Gabriel Diallo | W 76 63 | L 76 67 36 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 60 26 26 36 | L 36 67 64 62 36 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 46 64 | W 64 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Alex de Minaur
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Roman Safiullin
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Tallon Griekspoor
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Daniil Medvedev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Kyrian Jacquet
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Hugo Gaston
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Rinky Hijikata
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 57–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 61% |
| Sets won | 63% | 58% |
| Games won | 54% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 4 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 2 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 5 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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