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Head-to-Head

Alex de Minaur vs Andrey RublevPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

Alex de Minaur

🇦🇺Alex de Minaur

#7 · 27 yrs · R

4–4

8 meetings · sets 14–12

Andrey Rublev

🇷🇺Andrey Rublev

#24 · 28 yrs · R

Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev have met 8 times since 2018; they are level 4–4. Their first meeting came at Washington in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 4–3. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 14 sets to Rublev's 12. Their most recent meeting: Andrey Rublev won at Qatar ExxonMobil Open - Doha (2025).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

Indicatorde MinaurRublev
Wins in straight sets74%71%
Wins a set when losing43%39%
Goes to a deciding set33%33%
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite47%47%
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog56%17%
Tiebreak sets won70%44%
Wins after taking set 189%81%
Wins 2-0 after taking set 174%65%

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 1, Rublev 0).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Minaur

🪃 Counterpuncher

Elite BP conversionStrong return gameDefensive consistencyRally tolerance
vs

Rublev

🤖 Servebot

High ace rateDominant serviceWeaker returnBig first serve

Matchup analysis

The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 2,280 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Andrey Rublev.

Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.

Previous meetings

8 career meetings, newest first

Feb 20, 2025

Qatar ExxonMobil Open - Doha

H Hard · Quarterfinals

16
63
687
Rublev

Feb 16, 2024

ABN AMRO Open - Rotterdam

H Hard · Quarterfinals

765
46
63
Minaur

Jan 21, 2024

Australian Open - Melbourne

H Hard · 4th Round

46
765
764
36
06
Rublev

Nov 3, 2023

Rolex Paris Masters - Paris

H Hard · Quarterfinals

64
36
16
Rublev

Feb 15, 2023

ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament - Rotterdam

H Hard · 1st Round

64
64
Minaur

Apr 13, 2022

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo

C Clay · 2nd Round

62
16
46
Rublev

Nov 7, 2018

Next Gen ATP Finals

H Hard · Round Robin

41
3547
41
42
Minaur

Aug 4, 2018

Washington

H Hard · Semifinals

57
7866
64
Minaur

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

OutcomeMinaurRublev
1 or more94%100%
3 or more78%100%
5 or more50%82%
10 or more0%36%
15 or more0%18%
20 or more0%9%

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

MetricMinaurRublev
W-L13–66–5
Avg odds1.331.44
ROI %-16.4%-22.6%
Units P/L-3.11u-2.48u

Travel

Last 30 days

MetricMinaurRublev
Countries22
Events32
Matches63
Distance1,200 mi · 1,932 km712 mi · 1,146 km
RouteUSA → CAN → USACAN → USA

Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Rublev's 30%).

OpponentMinaurRublev
Arthur Fils
L
36
46
L
26
67
Nuno Borges
W
75
62
L
36
46
Cameron Norrie
L
75
67
16
L
26
76
26
Stefanos Tsitsipas
W
64
36
63
W
63
76
Luciano Darderi
W
60
63
W
64
63
Flavio Cobolli
L
57
67
36
L
67
36
Gabriel Diallo
W
76
63
L
76
67
36
Hubert Hurkacz
W
64
46
64
L
36
26
Jakub Mensik
L
60
26
26
36
L
36
67
64
62
36
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
W
64
62
W
61
16
63
76

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Minaur
LWWLWLWW
L

Arthur Fils

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round

36
46

Aug 19

W

Arthur Fery

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round

75
763

Aug 17

W

Quentin Halys

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

16
63
764

Aug 15

L

Cameron Norrie

National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round

75
657
16

Aug 6

W

James Duckworth

National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round

62
766

Aug 5

L

Brandon Nakashima

Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals

657
46

Jul 31

W

Cruz Hewitt

Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round

62
63

Jul 30

W

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round

64
36
63

Jul 29

Rublev
LWLLWWWW
L

Nuno Borges

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round

36
46

Aug 18

W

Pablo Carreno Busta

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

765
61

Aug 16

L

Juncheng Shang

National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round

57
64
657

Aug 4

L

Luca Van Assche

Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · Quarterfinals

63
36
46

Jul 24

W

Timofey Skatov

Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round

61
61

Jul 23

W

Luciano Darderi

Nordea Open - Bastad · Final

64
63

Jul 19

W

Alejandro Tabilo

Nordea Open - Bastad · Semifinals

64
46
64

Jul 18

W

Sebastian Baez

Nordea Open - Bastad · Quarterfinals

61
62

Jul 17

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ Minaurlevel↓ Rublev

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–74 matches

MetricMinaurRublev
Matches won64%58%
Sets won62%56%
Games won54%52%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

StageMinaurRublev
Grand Slam01
ATP 50011
ATP World Tour 50020
ATP World Tour Masters 100002
Other10

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

SurfaceMinaurRublev
Hard43
Clay01

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Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev FAQ

The head-to-head is level at 4–4 over 8 meetings.